10-2 is 🚫 the standard for making the CFP.

[ThreatLevelOrange]

I shouldve been more clear in what I mean. I dont mean its not possible, just that youre more likely to have a 9-3 team get in than a 10-2 left out.
Its very unlikely that the SEC finishes with six 10-2 teams.
I'm guessing the Big 10 gets 3, ND, plus 1 from the Big 12 plus 1 from the ACC, plus the G5, at a min. That leaves 5.
The wildcard right now for me is GT. They have a shot to run the table until they meet Georgia. Then the ACC would get 2 regardless of that outcome and then youre possibly leaving an SEC team out.
I dont think LSU reaches 10 wins. I'm also not sold on Mizzu hitting 10 wins just because its easier. (I think Tenn goes 9-3 as well).
So youre absolutely correct, and I shouldve clarified.

The odds agree with you. We thought there would be additional 10 win teams last year but it didn’t work that way. We must win or at least cover to stay in the race. Oklahoma and Florida both look like 6-6 / 7-5 teams. Vandy might be our big Win…if we sweep November.

 

[BernardKingGOAT]

It wasn't the final record. It was how the standings played out. Ole Miss bungled a game and it bumped us back up. We were out after the loss at UGA. 10-2 was never the criteria. And it certainly isn’t this season. Win the league, or hope. Simple as that.

Ole Miss lost at Florida

The final record was exactly the reason we got into the playoffs. The standings played out as a result of the final records.

 

[Ned Ray McWorkher]

Conference record determines the playoff potential. If you are not up at the top of the final SEC standings, then your ass ain't making the playoffs. Fairly simple. Going back and looking at how the CPF rankings played out last year, it's easy to see this principle in action. Ole Miss and Alabama fumbled games late after we blew it down at Georgia. We luckily bounced back up the rankings. Plain as day what happened.

 

[Dougie_D]

Conference record determines the playoff potential. If you are not up at the top of the final SEC standings, then your ass ain't making the playoffs. Fairly simple. Going back and looking at how the CPF rankings played out last year, it's easy to see this principle in action. Ole Miss and Alabama fumbled games late after we blew it down at Georgia. We luckily bounced back up the rankings. Plain as day what happened.

I agree . 4th place standings in SEC is the cutoff. That’s where we need to get but need some help. . The problem is outside of Alabama and “maybe Oklahoma” we are only playing bottom teams. Alabama is a must win for us. As of right now, GA, Ole Miss, Bama, TxAM all in front . If we lose to bama, we don’t have another team we can knock out of standings. Even if we end up with 2 losses.. other teams will be ahead of us who are tied. I have a scenario where Tx AM has 1 loss and 6 teams tied with 2 losses. Bama and GA would be ahead of us. We would need another team to lose 3 but unfortunately that would bump another team to lose 1 .
Bama is a must win . Its not possible to reach 4th spot based on matchups

 

[Ned Ray McWorkher]

And that's assuming they take 4. Only 3 made it last year. Lose to UGA and Bama and we are in a bowl game. Unless, we back our way into the playoffs like we did last year..

 

[Rickyvol77]

And that's assuming they take 4. Only 3 made it last year. Lose to UGA and Bama and we are in a bowl game. Unless, we back our way into the playoffs like we did last year..

only a few scenarios out there:

5 SEC teams, 4 Big Ten teams, 1 Big XII, 1 ACC, G5
4 SEC, 4 Big Ten, 1 Big XII, 2 ACC, G5
5 SEC, 3 Big Ten, 1 Big XII, 1 ACC, ND, G5

one of these is it:

My take is SEC gets 4 for sure, and the 5th unless ND wins out
Big Ten is lock for 4 barring some huge upsets for USC

 

[Flogballs]

ESPN’s model says that even if the Vols win, Bama will still have better odds than us of making the playoff

 

[Rickyvol77]

The usual suspects said Tennessee couldn’t come close to beating this Miami team

 

[pimo1]

When people say a 10-2 SEC/Big 10 school is in the playoffs, it's fairly true. Especially this season, it's pretty much a guarantee. It's not a rule, it's fairly simple math. Who has ever said it's a rule?

 

[Rickyvol77]

When people say a 10-2 SEC/Big 10 school is in the playoffs, it's fairly true. Especially this season, it's pretty much a guarantee. It's not a rule, it's fairly simple math. Who has ever said it's a rule?

Wait till the playoffs expand to 16

The usual suspect program blue bloods (Bama, UGA, Tennessee, Texas, LSU, Oklahoma, Michigan, Ohio St, Notre Dame, Penn St, etc) will get in at 9-3 or better every single year.