10-2 is 🚫 the standard for making the CFP.

[VolCalls]

Ok so name the 5 conferences they're referring to then.

Say you don't pay attention to college football as a whole, without saying you don't pay attention to college football.

 

[volfan102455]

And beat Florida at the swamp, which we haven't done since George W was in office.

I still think 9-3 is where we finish. I think we lose to Bama and split between FL and OK.

I'm just going to keep saying it. We are not good enough on defense to be a playoff team. We've been opportunistic at times on D, where they created a timely sack or a turnover that really bailed us out. But you cannot rely on that every week. We are too porous on the interior of the D line and our ends cannot set the edge to save their lives.

Many of the teams that will make the playoffs will not be good on Defense. I'm really not sure if there is a true defensive focused team in the SEC anymore.

 

[volfan102455]

View attachment 777701
Made a quick chart of the current ranked SEC teams and their remaining ranked games.

Do with it what you will, but I refuse to believe that OU and Vandy will survive their schedule and only lose 1 game so the end at best 10-2. LSU, Alabama, and Texas also have a tricky remaining schedule.

The best scenario for Tennessee is to just have Ole Miss and Texas A&M run the table while going 11-1 ourselves.

Reality is going to set in for Vandy - if they were to win the next 4 - then okay - the final game at Neyland will be the biggest game ever with that rivalry - but I just don't see that happening.

The other interesting thing is that even with them being undefeated and ranked like they are - they did not fill their stadium last week. Folks are probably just waiting for reality to drop.

 

[Renquist]

A 10-2 TN team may have difficulty making the playoff .

GA, Bama, aTm, and Ole Miss will advance imo.

Then you have Texas, LSU, Oklahoma, Mizz and TN.

I can’t recall the schedules but Ole Miss, GA, Mizz and LSU have the easiest path though no SEC game is a gimme.


I didn’t include Vandy as a possibility, because, well- they are Vandy- and will drop 3 -4 before TN.

A lot of assumptions here.

Way too early to be locking anyone into cfp

 

[VolCalls]

I think the only way they would is if you had five 11-1/10-2 teams + a 10-2 Penn State, 11-1/10-2 Indiana, 11-1/12-0 Ohio State, and 12-0/11-1 Oregon.

From there you would have following:

1-ACC Champ
2-Big Ten Champ
3-Big Twelve Champs
4-SEC Champ
5-G5
6-1 Loss Big Ten
7-1 Loss Big Ten
8-2 Loss Big Ten (assuming Penn State)


So you have 4 spots for 5 11-1/10-2 teams.

The easiest route for Tennessee is to win at Bama and losing another game. A 10-2 Tennessee with a win vs Bama ensures Bama has 2 losses.

Georgia will play Ole Miss, Texas will play A&M. Having A&M and Ole Miss win causes Texas and Georgia to fall into 2 loss category.

The good news for Tennessee is we will be favored in every remaining game except for Bama and that is solely because it is a road game.

OU will not have their QB the next few weeks so good chance they will drop a few games to eliminate themselves as OU would be second toughest game remaining.

What gets tricky is if Texas beats A&M and Georgia beats Ole Miss. We could see a situation where there is a host of 11-1 teams in the SEC and that boots out the 10-2 SEC/Big Ten Teams.

I think we will be fine. I'm not convinced Bama is real deal. I think Stockton just played to his median and had an anomaly game vs us in Neyland.

Do you really think OU is going to drop “a few games” before they play us? They go to South Carolina and have home games vs Kent State and Ole Miss, plus Texas at a neutral site. I think they go 2-2 at worst, which puts them 6-2 coming into our game with Mateer back, because he’s only out for a month, max. That could very well be a playoff elimination game November 1st.

 

[VolCalls]

I don't get the the people being scared of an OU team that may or may not have their QB while coming to Neyland off a schedule that featured Ole Miss, Texas, and a road game to Columbia.

OU is not that good

He will be back for our game, if not a week or two before.

 

[Carp]

Reality is going to set in for Vandy - if they were to win the next 4 - then okay - the final game at Neyland will be the biggest game ever with that rivalry - but I just don't see that happening.

The other interesting thing is that even with them being undefeated and ranked like they are - they did not fill their stadium last week. Folks are probably just waiting for reality to drop.

I think this weekend Vandy is gonna get absolutely rolled. Bama is out for revenge and Vandy's defense is still trash. Expecting something like 54-21. Bama might put up 60 just to prove a point.

 

[Carp]

Do you really think OU is going to drop “a few games” before they play us? They go to South Carolina and have home games vs Kent State and Ole Miss, plus Texas at a neutral site. I think they go 2-2 at worst, which puts them 6-2 coming into our game with Mateer back, because he’s only out for a month, max. That could very well be a playoff elimination game November 1st.

SoCar isn't terrible as long as Sellers plays. And OU plays them on the road. Without Mateer, that is easily a game they could lose.

Also, as many have pointed out, it would surprising if Mateer is back by the time they play us. The same injuries from NFL QBs have seen them miss upwards of 5 weeks. There is a non-zero chance he simply decides to take a medical redshirt if OU loses more than 3 games in the next 5-6 weeks.

 

[vol94]

Almost all of these teams still have to play each other. Much like last year, the head to heads will cause attrition and we'll end up with no more than 4 SEC teams with 2 losses or less. It'll probably be 3 teams again. And obviously, Ms St, Vandy, AU, SoCar, UK, Arky, and UF could upset any of these teams because that is just what happens in the SEC. In fact, I would bet on that happening.

OM has the easiest path right now with UGA and a Mateer-less OU team as their only ranked opponents remaining. I would be surprised if they don't make it into the CFP or the SECCG.

Vols likely have the 2nd easiest path to 10 wins, with Bama and OU as the only likely ranked teams we will play. And OU probably won't end the season ranked unless Mateer comes back quick (unlikely imo).

A&M schedule is semi-tough with Ms St, Mizzu, LSU, SoCar, and TX remaining. TX is probably the only team with more talent than them left on their schedule.

UGA has 1 loss already and they do not have an easy schedule. OM, Texas, and GT are big remaining games. along with big rivalry games against UF and AU. Fortunately for them, their toughest games are at home.

Mizzu has yet to face the crux of their schedule. They currently have 4 ranked opponents left, though it's unlikely Vandy and OU are still ranked by the time those games are played. OU probably has Mateer back that game though, so ranked or not, that will be a tough game. And while Ms St likely won't be ranked, they are a quality team nonetheless. Mizzu prob loses 3-4 games, imo.

LSU has a very tough schedule remaining with SoCar, Vandy, A&M, Bama, and then OU to end the season. Gonna be really tough for them to finish with 2 losses or less.

Bama likely has the toughest remaining schedule. Vandy, Mizzu, TN, SoCar, LSU, OU, and finishing with Auburn. Having no SEC losses right now does complicate things a bit, as they could lose 2 SEC games and still conceivably make the SECCG, win it, and make the CFP with 3 regular season losses, shoving a 2 loss SEC team out of the CFP. But that is a very low probability.

TX has 1 loss already. And they have Ms St, Vandy, and UGA along with tough rivalry games with OU and A&M. Not the toughest schedule, but not a cake walk. But like Bama, with their only loss being OOC, they have a back door to the CFP even with 3 losses if they can get to the SECCG.

Virtually no chance that OU survives without Mateer. Their remaining schedule is just way too hard.

I think Mateer will return sooner than later. Maybe it’s wishful thinking but he said he would be healthy for Texas game.

 

[GVF]

A 10-2 TN team may have difficulty making the playoff .

GA, Bama, aTm, and Ole Miss will advance imo.

Then you have Texas, LSU, Oklahoma, Mizz and TN.

I can’t recall the schedules but Ole Miss, GA, Mizz and LSU have the easiest path though no SEC game is a gimme.


I didn’t include Vandy as a possibility, because, well- they are Vandy- and will drop 3 -4 before TN.

Unless LSU can play out the season in a fashion that will make the entire world forget how they've looked so far, they are far from looking the part of a playoff team, regardless of record. They are lucky to not be winless. The only reason clemson didn't beat them is they couldn't get out of their own way faster than LSU.

 

[Carp]

I think Mateer will return sooner than later. Maybe it’s wishful thinking but he said he would be healthy for Texas game.

Venables cooled that talk down a bit. Said he would play when he has healed, whenever that may be, and that he isn't going to defy the odds in that regard.

 

[VolCalls]

SoCar isn't terrible as long as Sellers plays. And OU plays them on the road. Without Mateer, that is easily a game they could lose.

Also, as many have pointed out, it would surprising if Mateer is back by the time they play us. The same injuries from NFL QBs have seen them miss upwards of 5 weeks. There is a non-zero chance he simply decides to take a medical redshirt if OU loses more than 3 games in the next 5-6 weeks.

He is pushing to come back for the Texas game next weekend, per Coach Venables. I think there’s zero chance he’s still sitting out by the time they come to Knoxville.

 

[Carp]

He is pushing to come back for the Texas game next weekend, per Coach Venables. I think there’s zero chance he’s still sitting out by the time they come to Knoxville.

And Venables quickly cooled that talk down. He said he would play when he has healed, whenever that may be, and that he isn't going to defy the odds in that regard.

 

[Volbrando]

Stop it. There is no need for expansion. 12 teams is about 4 teams too many. At the base of it, there is zero reason why there should be a playoff where 3 loss teams can contend for an at large spot. Its borderline criminal that 10-2 is comfy record to get in playoff for some teams. The expansionist really hurt their case by going from 4 teams to 12. the sweet spot should be 6-8.

completely agree... IF the polls were accurate and the playoff selection criteria actually picked the best teams

 

[VolCalls]

And Venables quickly cooled that talk down. He said he would play when he has healed, whenever that may be, and that he isn't going to defy the odds in that regard.

You left out Venables’ next line:

“He’ll be good. He’ll be one of those guys who broke the record (for quickest return), if you will.”

We shall see.

 

[Carp]

You left out Venables’ next line:

“He’ll be good. He’ll be one of those guys who broke the record (for quickest return), if you will.”

We shall see.

That doesn't cancel out what he said before.

Again, with his injury, it would be very surprising if he was back in under 4 weeks.

 

[JMSqb11]

Do you really think OU is going to drop “a few games” before they play us? They go to South Carolina and have home games vs Kent State and Ole Miss, plus Texas at a neutral site. I think they go 2-2 at worst, which puts them 6-2 coming into our game with Mateer back, because he’s only out for a month, max. That could very well be a playoff elimination game November 1st.

I would be absolutely shocked if OU goes 4-0/3-1 over their next 4 games.

Kiffin seems to have real deal this year but can he take them on the road. I think Ole Miss will be favored in that game.

But I would definitely not be shocked if OU gets blasted in Columbia.

 

[JMSqb11]

He will be back for our game, if not a week or two before.

And if that’s the case, he will be rusty. Our defensive line play this past week, specific the pash rush, has given me a lot of hope for the rest of the season as McCoy gets back and Redmond gains valuable experience.

 

[LegionnaireOfTheMiserable]

A 10-2 TN team may have difficulty making the playoff .

GA, Bama, aTm, and Ole Miss will advance imo.

Then you have Texas, LSU, Oklahoma, Mizz and TN.

I can’t recall the schedules but Ole Miss, GA, Mizz and LSU have the easiest path though no SEC game is a gimme.


I didn’t include Vandy as a possibility, because, well- they are Vandy- and will drop 3 -4 before TN.

All those teams aren’t going 10-2.

I promise you, if we go 10-2, we will get in. Just like last year. It is not a hard and set rule, but it will almost always play out that way. We should worry whether or not we can get to 10-2, not if 10-2 will get us in the playoff.

 

[VolCalls]

That doesn't cancel out what he said before.

Again, with his injury, it would be very surprising if he was back in under 4 weeks.

I didn’t say it did. Just as what you quoted doesn’t cancel out the most recent thing he said.

I’ll bet money Mateer is back for our game at the latest. They all know what’s at stake.

 

[JMSqb11]

I didn’t say it did. Just as what you quoted doesn’t cancel out the most recent thing he said.

I’ll bet money Mateer is back for our game at the latest. They all know what’s at stake.

That’s irrelevant though. My premise is OU won’t have him during a gauntlet of a schedule which feature Ole Miss, Texas, and South Carolina on the road. I personally think OU loses 2 of those 3.

 

[VolCalls]

That’s irrelevant though. My premise is OU won’t have him during a gauntlet of a schedule which feature Ole Miss, Texas, and South Carolina on the road. I personally think OU loses 2 of those 3.

Quite possible, which puts them at 6-2 coming into our game, making it essentially a playoff elimination game. That was my original point.

 

[JMSqb11]

Quite possible, which puts them at 6-2 coming into our game, making it essentially a playoff elimination game. That was my original point.

Right. But I don't htink they are some toss up game for us with it being in Neyland. Heupel doesn't lose in Neyland outside of Georgia.

 

[cgrish]

,Stop it. There is no need for expansion. 12 teams is about 4 teams too many. At the base of it, there is zero reason why there should be a playoff where 3 loss teams can contend for an at large spot. Its borderline criminal that 10-2 is comfy record to get in playoff for some teams. The expansionist really hurt their case by going from 4 teams to 12. the sweet spot should be 6-8.

8 would be fine if they really picked the best 8 teams. They can't pick the top 8 by an automatic bid for conference champs and have the best 8 teams in the playoffs imo.

 

[VolCalls]

Right. But I don't htink they are some toss up game for us with it being in Neyland. Heupel doesn't lose in Neyland outside of Georgia.

I don’t think it’s a toss up, but I also don’t think we just show up and win. Nothing in the SEC is a guarantee.