10-2 is 🚫 the standard for making the CFP.

#27
#27
Volbrando said:
the polls and competition some of these high ranked teams have are an absolute joke... which is why they need to expand the playoff by even more than 16 teams
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Stop it. There is no need for expansion. 12 teams is about 4 teams too many. At the base of it, there is zero reason why there should be a playoff where 3 loss teams can contend for an at large spot. Its borderline criminal that 10-2 is comfy record to get in playoff for some teams. The expansionist really hurt their case by going from 4 teams to 12. the sweet spot should be 6-8.
 
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#28
#28
JMSqb11 said:
I don't get the the people being scared of an OU team that may or may not have their QB while coming to Neyland off a schedule that featured Ole Miss, Texas, and a road game to Columbia.

OU is not that good
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I dont think we are THAT good either. But the reality is, on paper, Oklahoma is a more talented team than we are and they will be coming into Neyland motivated to avenge last year's loss. Playing at home will make a difference, but that game will be a handful!
 
#29
#29
Brave Volunteer said:
I dont think we are THAT good either. But the reality is, on paper, Oklahoma is a more talented team than we are and they will be coming into Neyland motivated to avenge last year's loss. Playing at home will make a difference, but that game will be a handful!
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We have one of the best offenses in the country and the defense is showing signs of improvement coupled with fact we are going to get key guys back that should improve the weakest parts of our defense right in the pass defense.

OU will be without their QB for a schedule that includes Ole Miss, Texas, and road game to South Carolina.

If people think OU will survive that without Mateer, please pass me the drugs. I want a hit of what yall are smoking. It already sounds like Venables is having to put out stories he is pushing to ease Mateer back into playing on a slower schedule as Mateer is reported to be pushing to play as soon as he can.
 
#30
#30
Brave Volunteer said:
And beat Florida at the swamp, which we haven't done since George W was in office.

I still think 9-3 is where we finish. I think we lose to Bama and split between FL and OK.

I'm just going to keep saying it. We are not good enough on defense to be a playoff team. We've been opportunistic at times on D, where they created a timely sack or a turnover that really bailed us out. But you cannot rely on that every week. We are too porous on the interior of the D line and our ends cannot set the edge to save their lives.
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I agree with you completely.
Strange how during the off-season we all thought 9-3 because we didn't feel the Offense would produce...
 
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#31
#31
Looks to me after doing some math like there are probably going to be about four (maybe three, maybe five) SEC teams with a 10-2 or better record in the regular season. And those three to five will be among these eight programs: A&M, Bama, LSU, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, and UGa.

Don't worry about Mizzou or Vandy, they're both crashing to earth here soon enough (Mizzou soon to face Bama, Auburn, A&M, Miss St, and Oklahoma ... Vandy with Bama, LSU, Texas, Auburn, and the Vols ahead ... oh, and they play each other, guaranteeing someone another loss).

Who has the easiest remaining road of those eight? Well, Ole Miss only has UGa and Oklahoma as major remaining challenges. A&M has LSU and Texas. UGa has Ole Miss and Texas. We have Bama and Oklahoma. Of course, we and UGa already have one loss, so our margin of error is narrower. But I'd gamble on two or three of those teams being in the playoffs at end of season.

Harder roads belong to Bama (they still face us, LSU and Oklahoma, with 1 loss already) ... LSU (A&M, Bama, and Oklahoma) ... and Texas (still Oklahoma, UGa, and A&M with 1 loss already on the board). Oklahoma takes the cake, though, most challenging path ahead of all (still to face Texas, Ole Miss, the Vols, Bama, and LSU!).

My guess is only one of those gets through their gauntlet with 2 losses or fewer.

So two or three of Ole Miss, A&M, UGa, and us ... plus one of Bama, LSU, Texas, and Oklahoma (only including Oklahoma for completeness' sake; they're not going to make it).

All three or four of those teams will be in the playoffs. Guaranteed.

No matter what the NCAA web site tells you.

Go Vols!
 
#32
#32
Ned Ray McWorkher said:
Not for Tennessee, or any other school. Here is the official NCAA link...
www.ncaa.com

How the College Football Playoff works: Schedule, selections, rankings, byes and more

This is the new format and how teams are picked for the College Football Playoff, where semifinals rotate among the Cotton, Fiesta, Orange, Peach, Rose and Sugar Bowls.
www.ncaa.com www.ncaa.com

And some screenshots.....Happy hunting.

View attachment 777652View attachment 777654
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With Tennessee's schedule, they HAVE to get to 10-2.
 
#33
#33
JMSqb11 said:
I don't get the the people being scared of an OU team that may or may not have their QB while coming to Neyland off a schedule that featured Ole Miss, Texas, and a road game to Columbia.

OU is not that good
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I agree plus you already know Heup will want the Oklahoma game more than any other and it's at home. I think we handle the Sooners
 
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#39
#39
They're going to a 16 team play off so that's happening. Time to rip the band aide off and get down to a real playoff and stop pretending the smaller conferences really have a Cinderella chance like in March Madness

IMO take the 4 top conferences SEC, B1G, ACC, B12.
Each conference plays 9 conference games, 1 Cupcake team to pay to help their program, 1 Group of 5 team, and 1 team from the SEC,B1G, B12(can't make it your conference and has to be a diff conference every year) that's 12 games.


Take the top 4 from each of those conferences, let a computer sort out the brackets of who plays who but keep the algorithm so that higher team, plays a lower team first round, every team plays week one, then a bye week, rerank and play out the rest of the season, nobody gets a round 1 bye. All this arbitrary ranking of who's in the the top 12, soon to be 16 needs to go away, Let each conference send their 4 and see who wins because the way it is now you can't determine a real SOS between conferences

I guess you could do top 3 from the SEC,ACC,B10,B12,G5 and 1 at large team but not sure how the 1 at large team would be decided, as far as I'm concerned let a computer pick it.

May sound stupid but for now it sounds ok in me head😂
 
#40
#40
vol94 said:
A 10-2 TN team may have difficulty making the playoff .

GA, Bama, aTm, and Ole Miss will advance imo.

Then you have Texas, LSU, Oklahoma, Mizz and TN.

I can’t recall the schedules but Ole Miss, GA, Mizz and LSU have the easiest path though no SEC game is a gimme.


I didn’t include Vandy as a possibility, because, well- they are Vandy- and will drop 3 -4 before TN.
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Almost all of these teams still have to play each other. Much like last year, the head to heads will cause attrition and we'll end up with no more than 4 SEC teams with 2 losses or less. It'll probably be 3 teams again. And obviously, Ms St, Vandy, AU, SoCar, UK, Arky, and UF could upset any of these teams because that is just what happens in the SEC. In fact, I would bet on that happening.

OM has the easiest path right now with UGA and a Mateer-less OU team as their only ranked opponents remaining. I would be surprised if they don't make it into the CFP or the SECCG.

Vols likely have the 2nd easiest path to 10 wins, with Bama and OU as the only likely ranked teams we will play. And OU probably won't end the season ranked unless Mateer comes back quick (unlikely imo).

A&M schedule is semi-tough with Ms St, Mizzu, LSU, SoCar, and TX remaining. TX is probably the only team with more talent than them left on their schedule.

UGA has 1 loss already and they do not have an easy schedule. OM, Texas, and GT are big remaining games. along with big rivalry games against UF and AU. Fortunately for them, their toughest games are at home.

Mizzu has yet to face the crux of their schedule. They currently have 4 ranked opponents left, though it's unlikely Vandy and OU are still ranked by the time those games are played. OU probably has Mateer back that game though, so ranked or not, that will be a tough game. And while Ms St likely won't be ranked, they are a quality team nonetheless. Mizzu prob loses 3-4 games, imo.

LSU has a very tough schedule remaining with SoCar, Vandy, A&M, Bama, and then OU to end the season. Gonna be really tough for them to finish with 2 losses or less.

Bama likely has the toughest remaining schedule. Vandy, Mizzu, TN, SoCar, LSU, OU, and finishing with Auburn. Having no SEC losses right now does complicate things a bit, as they could lose 2 SEC games and still conceivably make the SECCG, win it, and make the CFP with 3 regular season losses, shoving a 2 loss SEC team out of the CFP. But that is a very low probability.

TX has 1 loss already. And they have Ms St, Vandy, and UGA along with tough rivalry games with OU and A&M. Not the toughest schedule, but not a cake walk. But like Bama, with their only loss being OOC, they have a back door to the CFP even with 3 losses if they can get to the SECCG.

Virtually no chance that OU survives without Mateer. Their remaining schedule is just way too hard.
 
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#42
#42
Orange_Vol1321 said:
Ok so name the 5 conferences they're referring to then.
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They're not actually referring to 5 conferences. They're referring to 5 conference champions, from among the 10 conferences in FBS. Only four of which are Power conferences, whose champs are presumed to almost certainly be 4 of the 5 each year. So the 5th will forcibly be one of the "Group of 6" other FBS conferences (Mountain West, American, Conference USA, MAC, PAC, and Sun Belt).
 
#43
#43
Orange_Vol1321 said:
By that rule I was referring to they will.
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The Pac 12 is not eligible this year for an automatic bid regardless who their "champion" is. Either Oregon St or Washington St would have to be an at large bid by finishing in the Top 12.

For a conference to be eligible for an automatic bid, they must have at least 8 teams in their conference.
 
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#44
#44
JMSqb11 said:
View attachment 777701
Made a quick chart of the current ranked SEC teams and their remaining ranked games.

Do with it what you will, but I refuse to believe that OU and Vandy will survive their schedule and only lose 1 game so the end at best 10-2. LSU, Alabama, and Texas also have a tricky remaining schedule.

The best scenario for Tennessee is to just have Ole Miss and Texas A&M run the table while going 11-1 ourselves.
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Conference record is going to be more important. Look for at least 3 if not 4 teams to potentially end 6-2 in SEC play and then the ties breakers get whacky. Someone like Mizzou or even Vandy could weasel their way into the final SEC championship game spot with only 2 losses and then from there all you need is a great 60 min from your team or a bad 60 min from the other.
 
#45
#45
Too early in the season to map out all the scenarios. Every year, crazy unexpected things happen that shake everything up (i.e. Bama losing to Vandy after beating GA).

Going to be interesting to see what happens next year with 9 game SEC schedule. I suspect that will lead to expanded playoffs
 
#46
#46
Oldvoldad said:
With Tennessee's schedule, they HAVE to get to 10-2.
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Well yeah that seems pretty obvuious. It's super unlikely that a 9-3 team is getting in unless they are a conference Champ.

Granted the CFP committee doesn't like to kick teams out who were already in the Top 12 before the title games. But that gets a little murky when a 3 loss teams ends up winning their conference (like Clemson last year who kicked out Bama/Miami).
 
#47
#47
VolFan_stuck_in_the_901 said:
If you think a 10-2 SEC team is getting left out in favor of a 10-2 ACC or Big 12 team, then I have a bridge to sell you 😂
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The problem is that there are only 7 spots for at large teams. And there is a decent chance that an undefeated or 1 loss team from the ACC or the Big 12 team ends up losing their Title game to a team with 2 or more losses. The CFP committee seems pretty dead set on not shifting teams out of the top 12 if they were in playoffs before their Title game.

Just like Clemson beating SMU last year in the title game ended up pushing either Bama or Miami out of the CFP.
 
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#48
#48
Carp said:
The problem is that there are only 7 spots for at large teams. And there is a decent chance that an undefeated or 1 loss team from the ACC or the Big 12 team ends up losing their Title game to a team with 2 or more losses. The CFP committee seems pretty dead set on not shifting teams out of the top 12 if they were in playoffs before their Title game.

Just like Clemson beating SMU last year in the title game ended up pushing either Bama or Miami out of the CFP.
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If that keeps happening the SEC and Big 10 will be breaking away sooner rather than later
 
#50
#50
JMSqb11 said:
Stop it. There is no need for expansion. 12 teams is about 4 teams too many. At the base of it, there is zero reason why there should be a playoff where 3 loss teams can contend for an at large spot. Its borderline criminal that 10-2 is comfy record to get in playoff for some teams. The expansionist really hurt their case by going from 4 teams to 12. the sweet spot should be 6-8.
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8 is enough.
 
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