1.9% growth this quarter.

#3
#3
well i just got my new wind powered car, it's pretty nice, i can't take any passengers because of the weight, and i can't go underbridges because of the windmill, but other than that it works ok. great going down hill.
 
#4
#4
Bear in mind that the growth mentioned is probably attributable to the stimulus checks mailed out. Check out the number of bankruptcy filings and the continued destruction of home prices for a different perspective.

From where I sit, we'll be lucky if we only end up in an "L-shaped recession." The amount of wealth destruction and tightening of credit in this country (and beyond) is staggering.

Pay off as many debts as possible, and don't try and catch knives just yet in the equity or housing markets.
 
#7
#7
HotlantaVol said:
Bear in mind that the growth mentioned is probably attributable to the stimulus checks mailed out. Check out the number of bankruptcy filings and the continued destruction of home prices for a different perspective.

From where I sit, we'll be lucky if we only end up in an "L-shaped recession." The amount of wealth destruction and tightening of credit in this country (and beyond) is staggering.

Pay off as many debts as possible, and don't try and catch knives just yet in the equity or housing markets.
Click to expand...

the article did mention that the stimulus checks didn't have an effect as hoped. if gas prices keep going up it's really going to hurt. school starts next month and families are going have to cut back on school stuff just for gas.
 
#8
#8
Oil prices will come back down later this year .. probably into the $100 barrel range by the end of the year.

However, the damage is already done.

The irony here is that many folks have been worried about inflation spurred on by high gas prices. In reality, tons of asset classes (e.g. homes, equities, etc) are actually deflating right now. A lot of economists I respect are starting to think that we may be heading into a deflationary recessions ala Japan in the 90s. That's a tough thing to crawl out of, and it takes a lot of time to do so. However, if you've got a lot of cash on the sidelines, you can buy up assets for pennies on the dollar.
 
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#11
#11
I believe it was higher than expected, but since GDP is a bit of a trailing indicator, i didn't get excited by it.
 
#12
#12
Hey droski, are there going to be any muni bonds out of California that will be better than junk the next couple of years?

I don't see how California is going to crawl out of its fiscal hole...
 
#13
#13
when you can continue to raise taxes on tens of millions of people and continue to issue new debt at low rates you can continue to pay the interest on your muni income. florida is the one that is really screwed with the declining property values and therefore declining taxes and no income tax.
 
#14
#14
At some point the tax rates though will be a total disincentive to live or do business in California, if they're not there already. Don't discount the loss of property tax revenue across all housing levels in your state ... even Orange County foreclosure rates are now ticking up.

Agreed though about Florida. They are Proper Effed.
 
#18
#18
TennTradition said:
This was less than the street expected, right? Still not good news, unfortunately...
Click to expand...

It was expected at 2.0% (source: Bloomberg) so really dead on.

The real shake-up was the jobless claims number at almost 450,000. That sent equities down and bonds up.

All I know is I want to be LoneStar right now. Grabbed billions of Merrill CDO money at $.22 on the dollar but then had a cap on max losses (I think it equated to under $.10 on the dollar). I'll take $30B in assets for $3B in cash.
 
#20
#20
It was an even sweeter deal than that. ML seller-financed 75% the acquisition of those junk CDOs.

Of course, the scary thing is that these were the "super-senior" tranches ... you know, the supposedly highest-quality debt.

We haven't even begun to see the full fallout from Alt-A Mortgage losses yet. Wachovia's got a ton of those on the books.

If any of you all have over $100K at any single bank, spread it around better. More bank failures are coming.
 
#21
#21
VolByBirth said:
It was expected at 2.0% (source: Bloomberg) so really dead on.

The real shake-up was the jobless claims number at almost 450,000. That sent equities down and bonds up.

All I know is I want to be LoneStar right now. Grabbed billions of Merrill CDO money at $.22 on the dollar but then had a cap on max losses (I think it equated to under $.10 on the dollar). I'll take $30B in assets for $3B in cash.
Click to expand...

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

Apparently it fell almost a 0.5 a percentage point below median estimates (0.4), which were at 2.3....if you believe Bloomberg news as a source.
 
#22
#22
HotlantaVol said:
It was an even sweeter deal than that. ML seller-financed 75% the acquisition of those junk CDOs.

Of course, the scary thing is that these were the "super-senior" tranches ... you know, the supposedly highest-quality debt.

We haven't even begun to see the full fallout from Alt-A Mortgage losses yet. Wachovia's got a ton of those on the books.

If any of you all have over $100K at any single bank, spread it around better. More bank failures are coming.
Click to expand...

Wachovia is done -- be it through failure or acquisition.
 
#23
#23
What bothers me about all this more than anything, is that as of the moment, Pres. Bush was right.

Well right when he said "We are not in a recession, we are in a slowdown"
 
#24
#24
emainvol said:
What bothers me about all this more than anything, is that as of the moment, Pres. Bush was right.

Well right when he said "We are not in a recession, we are in a slowdown"
Click to expand...



We have multiple government bailouts (Fannie/Freddie and propping up FHA) for the housing market. We have the Fed opening up their lines to just about everyone. We have the FDIC burning through it's reserves at a ridiculous rate as they continue to take over more and more banks. Unemployment is rising, inflation is rising, spending is barely growing (.6%) -- which is odd because wages only rose by .1% (can you say debt??).

I don't care what you call it -- recession, slowdown, whatever. It's a problem because we'll be paying for it for years with all the money the gov't is hemmorhaging to pay for this.
 
#25
#25
emainvol said:
What bothers me about all this more than anything, is that as of the moment, Pres. Bush was right.

Well right when he said "We are not in a recession, we are in a slowdown"
Click to expand...

Yes better that we be in a recession, so the Prez is wrong. He took a beating on signing,or not signing the Kyoto treaty, but was right about that also,(even though it was never covered by the media)
 
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