✴️ Pick the Score Contest: Syracuse

#254
#254
Freak said:
It's finally here!

This week's tiebreaker is passing yards by Joey Aguilar.

How it works:

Pick the score for each team of the Tennessee game. You must pick the winner of the game to win the contest. The smallest score differential will win.

Example (first game)
Prediction: TN 45 Syracuse 10
Actual: TN 38 Syracuse 3
Differential: (45-38) + (10-3) = 14.

Please format your pick with each team on one line like this, with Tennessee listed first:
Tennessee 41
Opponent 0
Tiebreaker 200

The winner will receive a $25 Amazon gift card. Good luck and thanks for playing.
Click to expand...
Will there be a season pick contest this year?
 
#255
#255
Freak said:
It's finally here!

This week's tiebreaker is passing yards by Joey Aguilar.

How it works:

Pick the score for each team of the Tennessee game. You must pick the winner of the game to win the contest. The smallest score differential will win.

Example (first game)
Prediction: TN 45 Syracuse 10
Actual: TN 38 Syracuse 3
Differential: (45-38) + (10-3) = 14.

Please format your pick with each team on one line like this, with Tennessee listed first:
Tennessee 41
Opponent 0
Tiebreaker 200

The winner will receive a $25 Amazon gift card. Good luck and thanks for playing.
Click to expand...
The model I am using breaks each game down into six parts. First is rebound regression which looks at how teams usually respond the year after their win total. Second is coach year progression which tracks Heupel’s program growth. Third is the one score game reversion which checks if we should expect better luck in close games. Fourth is the post NFL talent drain which measures how much star power left compared to average replacements. Fifth is program momentum which stacks the last three years against our historical baseline. Sixth is the schedule order factor which adjusts for when tough games fall and how much wear and tear builds up. All six get added into the equation so each week spits out a probability and point spread.


Against Syracuse the system likes Tennessee almost across the board. The rebound regression says we are steady while they are sliding back. Heupel progression is still ticking up and the roster turnover hurt them more than us. Momentum and schedule order both favor Tennessee because the Vols open fresh while Syracuse hits a wall early. With no serious NFL drain on our side and better odds in one score swings the gap stretches even wider. That is why the math comes out heavy orange.


Tennessee 42
Syracuse 13
Tiebreaker 263
 
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