Utah State opens as early Vegas favorite @Tennessee

[Orange_Crush]

Your "points" were based on an attempt to make an "apples to apples" comparison of recent records and such. I showed you that was invalid. If USU had played UT's schedule over the past couple of years then you would have struggled to win 10 games in two seasons combined I suspect it would have been more like 7 or 8. You don't have the talent or depth of talent to face what UT has faced.

UT is more talented overall. Composite, the Vols will bigger, faster, quicker, and stronger. That's not in question, is it? Your chances lie in other things... like the fact that you play football. You don't compare workout charts or ht/wt rosters. But all other things being equal... put your money on the big, strong, fast team.

You play UT 2500 miles from home in front of probably the largest crowd anyone on your team has seen. Neyland will rock... literally as the voices of 100K cause the stadium to sway.

Both teams will have some experienced players but replace many major contributors. So again... both team with new starters and new faces in the 2 deep... put your money on the inexperienced guy with more athleticism.

It comes down to coaching. This is a game that helps UT to see what it has in Jones. If he is as good as your guy or as all of us here hope then UT controls the game and wins "comfortably" (11+ pts). If you manage a win then he has a VERY long uphill climb to convince anyone he's the right guy for the job.


So it isn't a matter of "juggernauts" but a matter of players, games, and coaches. The major unknown is Jones. The talent levels are known. The game setting is known. Your coach is known.... Jones is the variable that can swing the game in YOUR favor.

Very good post, however I would say that CBJ is known. He did some very good things at his previous two stops and he is at least as known as USU's coach. Interestingly, he has shown struggles in year one with marked improvement starting in year two at each of his last two stops. This gives me hope.

Is he proven at the SEC level? No. But then, neither is USU's coach, and neither is USU SEC level. Will CBJ be a success in the SEC? No one knows for sure, but he's given reason to beleve he is a good coach that knows what he's doing. There is reason for hope.

But I agree. Marked struggles against USU would deflate the hope a bit. ag4fr needs to come to grips with that. They are a litmus test, and little more. Their "competitive" is our "failure". The funny thing is that that's the point he's inadvertently made for the past three pages.

 

[sjt18]

i know we lose alot but they might be losing more. over 3000 yards of offense and 20-25 TDS will have to come from somewhere. Also they lose about 8 defensive starters. i think the Vols will be in good shape. not a blowout but maybe 10 pt victory

IMO

UT by less than 10- 15%
UT by 10-20- 65%
UT by more than 20- 15%
USU wins- 5%

So, I think there's roughly an 80% likelihood that UT wins by more than 10.

 

[sjt18]

Very good post, however I would say that CBJ is known. He did some very good things at his previous two stops and he is at least as known as USU's coach. Interestingly, he has shown struggles in year one with marked improvement starting in year two at each of his last two stops. This gives me hope.

His resume got him the job. IMO he failed to "meet expectations" last year and has ground to make up. I don't think he is a known at this point at all. Many coaches with success in one place move up in competition and are unable to cut it. RichRod should have been a slam dunk hire for Michigan. Muschamp was once at the top of everyone's wish list. Patterson doesn't look nearly as brilliant against the B12 as he did vs the MWC. Kragthorpe was a pretty good coach at Tulsa before flopping at L'ville. A series of coaches have gone through Miami that looked good on paper.

You have many successes too... but a resume only gets a guy a top tier job. It doesn't give any true indication of how good the guy will actually do.

Is he proven at the SEC level? No. But then, neither is USU's coach, and neither is USU SEC level. Will CBJ be a success in the SEC? No one knows for sure, but he's given reason to beleve he is a good coach that knows what he's doing. There is reason for hope.

But I agree. Marked struggles against USU would deflate the hope a bit. ag4fr needs to come to grips with that. They are a litmus test, and little more. Their "competitive" is our "failure". The funny thing is that that's the point he's inadvertently made for the past three pages.

I've been pretty open about the way I think this contest should go. I think USU is a good mid-major program that has struck on some recent success. I think they're running up against a roster and game setting that SHOULD overwhelm them if Jones is the right guy for UT.

My HOPE is that Jones does not approach this game the way he approached Vandy. IMHO, the primary reason UT lost is that Jones respected Vandy too much. I think he should have had the team pumped up to expect to dominate Vandy in all phases of the game then gone out with a very aggressive game plan. Instead, he tried to "manage" the game and lost when Franklin (who was doing the same thing because he rightly realized UT had more talent) out-managed him.

 

[Orange_Crush]

His resume got him the job. IMO he failed to "meet expectations" last year and has ground to make up. I don't think he is a known at this point at all. Many coaches with success in one place move up in competition and are unable to cut it. RichRod should have been a slam dunk hire for Michigan. Muschamp was once at the top of everyone's wish list. Patterson doesn't look nearly as brilliant against the B12 as he did vs the MWC. Kragthorpe was a pretty good coach at Tulsa before flopping at L'ville. A series of coaches have gone through Miami that looked good on paper.

Combined with my statement that you quoted below, per the SEC, we're pretty much on the same page. But what you just said was MUCH different than: "USU's coach is known and CBJ is not."

I mean... C'mon man!

You have many successes too... but a resume only gets a guy a top tier job. It doesn't give any true indication of how good the guy will actually do.


I've been pretty open about the way I think this contest should go. I think USU is a good mid-major program that has struck on some recent success. I think they're running up against a roster and game setting that SHOULD overwhelm them if Jones is the right guy for UT.

My HOPE is that Jones does not approach this game the way he approached Vandy. IMHO, the primary reason UT lost is that Jones respected Vandy too much. I think he should have had the team pumped up to expect to dominate Vandy in all phases of the game then gone out with a very aggressive game plan. Instead, he tried to "manage" the game and lost when Franklin (who was doing the same thing because he rightly realized UT had more talent) out-managed him.

 

[ag4fr]

Very good post, however I would say that CBJ is known. He did some very good things at his previous two stops and he is at least as known as USU's coach. Interestingly, he has shown struggles in year one with marked improvement starting in year two at each of his last two stops. This gives me hope.

Is he proven at the SEC level? No. But then, neither is USU's coach, and neither is USU SEC level. Will CBJ be a success in the SEC? No one knows for sure, but he's given reason to beleve he is a good coach that knows what he's doing. There is reason for hope.

But I agree. Marked struggles against USU would deflate the hope a bit. ag4fr needs to come to grips with that. They are a litmus test, and little more. Their "competitive" is our "failure". The funny thing is that that's the point he's inadvertently made for the past three pages.

You're probably right. Our "competitive" would be your "disaster", and this does come down to players and coaches.

Neyland will be rocking.

Are you saying it will be remarkably different for a team that has turned into a perennial 5-7 dud, than Auburn was, on opening day after winning a national title?

Is it going to be far worse than a repeat Rose Bowl bound Wisconsin?

Our guys have faced that kind of environment before. I'm not saying it won't have an impact, but it is manageable.

There will be all sort of predictions, betting lines, etc. I think y'all will be a little surprised when the real LV sports books start putting out their betting lines.

But I don't think the lines make much difference on the day of the game.

Players make plays. Players win games. But players are not just athletes. They are complex combinations of physical strength and skill as well as mental and psychological preparation.

I'm looking forward to this game very much. I know Neyland will be fabulous and the UT fans are some of the best.

 

[Orange_Crush]

You're probably right. Our "competitive" would be your "disaster", and this does come down to players and coaches.

Neyland will be rocking.

Are you saying it will be remarkably different for a team that has turned into a perennial 5-7 dud, than Auburn was, on opening day after winning a national title?

Is it going to be far worse than a repeat Rose Bowl bound Wisconsin?

Our guys have faced that kind of environment before. I'm not saying it won't have an impact, but it is manageable.

There will be all sort of predictions, betting lines, etc. I think y'all will be a little surprised when the real LV sports books start putting out their betting lines.

But I don't think the lines make much difference on the day of the game.

Players make plays. Players win games. But players are not just athletes. They are complex combinations of physical strength and skill as well as mental and psychological preparation.

I'm looking forward to this game very much. I know Neyland will be fabulous and the UT fans are some of the best.

You may want to quote the right post.


For the record, I'm also looking forward to the game. I wish you guys a good game, and you a good experience if you come to it. :hi:

 

[sjt18]

Combined with my statement that you quoted below, per the SEC, we're pretty much on the same page. But what you just said was MUCH different than: "USU's coach is known and CBJ is not."

I mean... C'mon man!

Their coach has won games in the position he's in now. I realize all of the differences but the fact remains that he had some success and Jones is still looking for it. That's all I meant by he is known while Jones is not.

If I were a USU homer arguing here... I wouldn't even attempt to suggest that this isn't a talent mismatch. Instead, I'd focus on the fact that UT's coach was pushed by USA, blown out 4 times, and beaten by Vandy while USU's coach lost to two Pac10 teams by less than a TD and beat a very good NIU team. USCw ended up 10-4 after the coaching change so talent wasn't the big issue for them. Wells outcoached Kiffin.

 

[Orange_Crush]

[CBJ] His resume got him the job.

Their coach has won games in the position he's in now. I realize all of the differences but the fact remains that he had some success and Jones is still looking for it. That's all I meant by he is known while Jones is not.

If I were a USU homer arguing here... I wouldn't even attempt to suggest that this isn't a talent mismatch. Instead, I'd focus on the fact that UT's coach was pushed by USA, blown out 4 times, and beaten by Vandy while USU's coach lost to two Pac10 teams by less than a TD and beat a very good NIU team. USCw ended up 10-4 after the coaching change so talent wasn't the big issue for them. Wells outcoached Kiffin.

OK, I don't want to drag this out needlessly, nor seem like I'm beating you up... But your argument is self-defeating and hypocritical.

You are saying that CBJ won games in a lower conference to get the UT gig, but is an "unknown". Then you say that USU's coach is "known" because... He's won games in a lower conference.

Bullshyte.

Jones was known at his last two stops. He won games at a lower conference. You bust him up for losing against Vandy last year, but then conveniently ignore and discount him beating CJF's Vandy while at Cincy, with less talent.

CBJ is more proven as a coach than USU's.

Edit: You statement:

I realize all of the differences but the fact remains that he had some success and Jones is still looking for it.

...again, is horseshyte. USU's coach has has some success at a lower conference, but CBJ is still looking for success? At lower conferences he has had 6 conference titles. Has USU's coach found that at his lower conference?

You befuddle me sometimes. You are capable of great logic and reasoning... Then break this stuff out. An enigma...

:hi:

 

[thebjd]

You're probably right. Our "competitive" would be your "disaster", and this does come down to players and coaches.

Neyland will be rocking.

Are you saying it will be remarkably different for a team that has turned into a perennial 5-7 dud, than Auburn was, on opening day after winning a national title?

Is it going to be far worse than a repeat Rose Bowl bound Wisconsin?

Our guys have faced that kind of environment before. I'm not saying it won't have an impact, but it is manageable.

There will be all sort of predictions, betting lines, etc. I think y'all will be a little surprised when the real LV sports books start putting out their betting lines.

But I don't think the lines make much difference on the day of the game.

Players make plays. Players win games. But players are not just athletes. They are complex combinations of physical strength and skill as well as mental and psychological preparation.

I'm looking forward to this game very much. I know Neyland will be fabulous and the UT fans are some of the best.

5-7 dud is a bit harsh but point taken. Yes, the atmosphere at Neyland is unique. Definitely louder and more intimidating than the barn.

 

[Titleistvol]

...and we're having this conversation in march - wow!

 

[BruiserVol]

The barn won't compare to neyland.

 

[sjt18]

Are you saying it will be remarkably different for a team that has turned into a perennial 5-7 dud, than Auburn was, on opening day after winning a national title?

Yes. There will be about 15K more people. Neyland and Jordan-Hare are designed differently also. Auburn didn't... and had little reason to take you serious. Regardless of what anyone says here, UT is very unlikely to overlook the threat USU poses to kicking off the season well.

Is it going to be far worse than a repeat Rose Bowl bound Wisconsin?

In what respect? Noisier? By far.

Our guys have faced that kind of environment before. I'm not saying it won't have an impact, but it is manageable.

If the UT fans are as excited and show up in force to the degree that we ALL expect them to right now... then you have NOT "faced that kind of environment before". There are only a handful of stadiums in the country that combine the "closeness" and numbers of Neyland.

There will be all sort of predictions, betting lines, etc. I think y'all will be a little surprised when the real LV sports books start putting out their betting lines.

But I don't think the lines make much difference on the day of the game.

The earlier an official line comes out predicting a USU win... the worse it is for you. One of the easiest motivation tactics in sports is the "no respect" angle. You should know that. Your guys played over their heads vs USC and NIU last year.

Players make plays. Players win games. But players are not just athletes. They are complex combinations of physical strength and skill as well as mental and psychological preparation.

Seldom is the difference in those "soft" attributes enough to make up an athletic difference like the one between UT's roster and yours.

Last year Jones overestimated UF, Vandy, and WKU. He underestimated at least USA but that does not seem to be his tendency. If he overestimates USU then he will gameplan that way... and keep you in a game you shouldn't be in.

 

[BruiserVol]

I keep seeing USA brought up. We were up 31-7 on them and they were no contest. What hurt us was in the late third quarter we started just putting it in cruise control and it was obvious.

 

[ag4fr]

5-7 dud is a bit harsh but point taken. Yes, the atmosphere at Neyland is unique. Definitely louder and more intimidating than the barn.

Dud is probably harsh, but I know that is how many UT fans view it.

Your expectations are not to be short of going to a bowl game.

Your expectations are not to win just one or two SEC games.

Your goals for your team are much higher than what you have gotten the past few years.

I think you have a good coach. Give him a little time. I think Gary Andersen was a solid coach for us during his time in Logan. He didn't improve our record one bit during his first two years, but you could see the improvements coming.

 

[Doyle Hargraves]

I would also venture to guess that the Neyland atmosphere might be different than Auburn's because of the fan base mentality in each situation.
You have Auburn's coming off of a NC probably looking at the game much like we would the AP game. Easy win against a nobody.
Then you have a packed Neyland starving for success and rabid to see the hyped up new recruits do their thing against a team that has shown some success the past couple of years.
Compare the two all you like but Neyland will be a different animal I promise.

 

[sjt18]

OK, I don't want to drag this out needlessly, nor seem like I'm beating you up... But your argument is self-defeating and hypocritical.

You are saying that CBJ won games in a lower conference to get the UT gig, but is an "unknown". Then you say that USU's coach is "known" because... He's won games in a lower conference.

Bullshyte.

So you are saying that Wells was NOT more successful last year than Jones? Who did he lose to that he was supposed to beat? Who blew him out? I can promise that the talent disparity against USU was greater when they played USC than any game UT played last year.

Jones was known at his last two stops. He won games at a lower conference. You bust him up for losing against Vandy last year, but then conveniently ignore and discount him beating CJF's Vandy while at Cincy, with less talent.

I am not ignoring anything. Resume's get people jobs. Resumes are not necessarily good predictors of success in a new job.

That's the point.. if you want to be ignorant and call that "bullshyte"... then that's on you.

CBJ is more proven as a coach than USU's.

Not in his current job. He has not proven he can win at UT.

USU's coach has has some success at a lower conference, but CBJ is still looking for success? At lower conferences he has had 6 conference titles. Has USU's coach found that at his lower conference?

Six? No matter.

Yes. He is still looking for success at UT. Being blown out 4 times, almost losing to USA, losing to what we now know was a bad UF team, and losing to Vandy... simply cannot be called "success". Wells took two more talented Pac10 teams to the wire and beat a very good NIU team in a bowl. He finished 9-5. By definition, that is a successful first year.

You befuddle me sometimes. You are capable of great logic and reasoning... Then break this stuff out. An enigma...

:hi:

Same logical workings... sometimes it is stuff people want to hear... sometimes it isn't. The fact that some of the same people alternately applaud or condemn my logic... is probably a good sign.

 

[Orange_Crush]

So you are saying that Wells was NOT more successful last year than Jones? Who did he lose to that he was supposed to beat? Who blew him out? I can promise that the talent disparity against USU was greater when they played USC than any game UT played last year.

I am not ignoring anything. Resume's get people jobs. Resumes are not necessarily good predictors of success in a new job.

That's the point.. if you want to be ignorant and call that "bullshyte"... then that's on you.

Not in his current job. He has not proven he can win at UT.

Six? No matter.

Yes. He is still looking for success at UT. Being blown out 4 times, almost losing to USA, losing to what we now know was a bad UF team, and losing to Vandy... simply cannot be called "success". Wells took two more talented Pac10 teams to the wire and beat a very good NIU team in a bowl. He finished 9-5. By definition, that is a successful first year.



Same logical workings... sometimes it is stuff people want to hear... sometimes it isn't. The fact that some of the same people alternately applaud or condemn my logic... is probably a good sign.

Butch Jones is unproven because his only success was at lower conferences.

USU's coach is proven because of his success at lower conferences.

Yah. That's sound logic. Kudos.

 

[thebjd]

Butch Jones is unproven because his only success was at lower conferences.

USU's coach is proven because of his success at lower conferences.

Yah. That's sound logic. Kudos.

You have stepped in it now. Remember the Poole being an elite back debates. Wave the white flag and move along.

 

[BruiserVol]

You wanna talk USU coach playing good against people with more talent?

Butch jones in 2009 at Central Michigan. Look it up if you don't believe it. The recruiting classes years leading up to that and that very year were nothing but 2* with a few 3* here and there. He went 12-2 and beat Michigan State in the process. You want talent disparity? That's talent disparity. So don't say oh he was left with great players.

At Cinci he beat a Vanderbilt that took us to OT. Sure we beat cinci bad that year, but we barely beat vandy then they beat vandy. So if you wanna use the transitive property then whatever.

 

[thebjd]

Dud is probably harsh, but I know that is how many UT fans view it.

Your expectations are not to be short of going to a bowl game.

Your expectations are not to win just one or two SEC games.

Your goals for your team are much higher than what you have gotten the past few years.

I think you have a good coach. Give him a little time. I think Gary Andersen was a solid coach for us during his time in Logan. He didn't improve our record one bit during his first two years, but you could see the improvements coming.

Our goals are higher and that is why UT fired the last coach. UT fired a coach that had a 152-52 record with a national title, two SEC titles, and won the SEC East six times. Yeah, the expectations are high.

 

[Boca Vol]

Jones was known at his last two stops. He won games at a lower conference. You bust him up for losing against Vandy last year, but then conveniently ignore and discount him beating CJF's Vandy while at Cincy, with less talent.

Why do people keep saying this? That Vandy team wasn't that good. Just because a team is in the SEC doesn't mean they're good! They played Ark to a close loss. OK.

I know it fits your support for Jones to say that he beat Vandy with a lesser talented Cincy team but they weren't and it doesn't really matter. Did Jones lose to Vandy with superior talent in 2013? It evens out.

 

[Orange_Crush]

Why do people keep saying this? That Vandy team wasn't that good. Just because a team is in the SEC doesn't mean they're good! They played Ark to a close loss. OK.

I know it fits your support for Jones to say that he beat Vandy with a lesser talented Cincy team but they weren't and it doesn't really matter. Did Jones lose to Vandy with superior talent in 2013? It evens out.

I'm not so sure I'm supporting Jones, nor guaranteeing his success. I am negating bad logic. Reread and refresh. The logic is:

CBJ is unproven because his only success has been at a lower conference. USU's coach is proven because of his (lesser) success at a (lower) lower conference. That is asinine.

I never guaranteed that Jones is UT's sure-fire coach. I'm just saying that he is at least as proven as USU's coach. Please follow the conversation before you jump in.

 

[Orange_Crush]

Why do people keep saying this? That Vandy team wasn't that good. Just because a team is in the SEC doesn't mean they're good! They played Ark to a close loss. OK.

I know it fits your support for Jones to say that he beat Vandy with a lesser talented Cincy team but they weren't and it doesn't really matter. Did Jones lose to Vandy with superior talent in 2013? It evens out.

And for the record, Vandy was more talented that Cinci.

 

[BruiserVol]

Why do people keep saying this? That Vandy team wasn't that good. Just because a team is in the SEC doesn't mean they're good! They played Ark to a close loss. OK.

I know it fits your support for Jones to say that he beat Vandy with a lesser talented Cincy team but they weren't and it doesn't really matter. Did Jones lose to Vandy with superior talent in 2013? It evens out.

We beat down cinci that year. We beat vandy by three in OT. How was vandy not more talented?

 

[sjt18]

Butch Jones is unproven because his only success was at lower conferences.

USU's coach is proven because of his success at lower conferences.

Yah. That's sound logic. Kudos.

Jones is unproven because he has not won in his current position and has had some VERY bad performances. Wells is proven because he has won in his current position with some VERY good performances against better teams.