Utah State opens as early Vegas favorite @Tennessee

#176
#176
sjt18 said:
I am pretty impartial and honest when assessing your posts... and disagree.


Surprise isn't exactly the word. Failure would be the word that comes to mind if this staff cannot take the talent they have and beat a mid-major replacing 14 of their 22 starters.

Well at least we can agree that if USU wins it will be because Jones was badly outcoached... at home... with a talent advantage... again. If that happens, Hart should fire Jones after the game and hire USU's staff before they even get on the plane.

Seriously though, you can't have it both ways. You can't at one time rationalize the blow out losses to Bama, Auburn, and Oregon based on talent then turn around and say this game should be close because of coaching.

Well I guess you can but the direct logical implication is that you are saying Jones is not a very good coach.

Didn't USC fire a coach mid-season in part because of his failure to blow USU off the field?

Again, not very talented teams on the whole.
Not if Jones is the right coach. Period. He will have a VERY significant talent advantage and neither team will be overly experienced though UT returns more starters than USU does.

All I see here is someone setting up an excuse 7 months out possibly because they are afraid they will have to justify a loss that points directly at coaching issues.
Click to expand...

Agree with all this. UT has a vastly superior amount of talent.
 
#178
#178
sjt18 said:
The most amazing thing about these discussions is that some don't even wait until after a game to start making excuses. Simple facts. UT has more talent and it isn't close. If the game is close it will be because of coaching and THAT would not support the idea that Jones is a championship caliber coach at UT.
Click to expand...

Have you watched USU play?
 
#179
#179
sjt18 said:
I am pretty impartial and honest when assessing your posts... and disagree.

All I see here is someone setting up an excuse 7 months out possibly because they are afraid they will have to justify a loss that points directly at coaching issues.
Click to expand...

That's what I'd expect from you, sjt18. Selective reading makes it impossible to see the pros and cons of a perception.
 
#180
#180
rcvol said:
We can dream I guess. Sounds more like you are hoping we are better. I think you will be disappointed.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
Click to expand...

What the hell about that post was a dream? We'll be younger and less experienced but much faster and more talented.

A dream would've been me predicting our team full of freshmen would go 10-2 and play for the SEC championship. Didn't come close to saying that.
 
#181
#181
sjt18 said:
The most amazing thing about these discussions is that some don't even wait until after a game to start making excuses. Simple facts. UT has more talent and it isn't close. If the game is close it will be because of coaching and THAT would not support the idea that Jones is a championship caliber coach at UT.
Click to expand...

You keep making this assertion which is incorrect.

I used to believe that until I dug deeper into the numbers. The distance between the talent on the teams is not as strongly correlated to score as you clearly believe. In fact, there many cases where similarly talented teams are blow outs, and where extremely large talent gapped teams are close games. The % chance for a win/loss still favors the more talented team 70/30, but to say that a game should be a blow out based on that determination, ignores all factors of a football game.

If you could play this game on Xbox, this game should be a blow out based on talent alone. However, game day motivation, weather, officiating, freak injuries, et al all have an impact on the idea of a "blow out". Again I stress that yes, UT should be favored in this game based on talent at a level of about 70/30. If you are simply basing the outcome (W/L) of the game on talent, you are probably correct, but if you are basing the score differential on the talent differential, you are looking at a relationship that is far less stable.

But, this is where the fan lives in all of us. We judge performances less on Ws and Ls and by looking at the talent level of the opponent than we do by looking at score differentials. A blow out loss hurts more than a close loss, but it is no less a loss. Conversely a blow out win feels better, but it is no more a win.

As you caution others who are already making excuses for a loss, I caution you against using this very flawed theory on judging a win.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#182
#182
sjt18 said:
They did that last year against Vandy. I think we're almost due to win a few that should be losses and keep games competitive even when the other team has a talent advantage. Of course I think UT is due an elite coach that will bring those things. I hope Jones is that guy but have my eyes open.
Click to expand...

Did you actually watch that game or are you one of those, "WE'RE TENNESSEE THEY'RE VANDY HURR," people?

Because if you did watch it, you'd know that Vandy and UT were pretty much even talent-wise.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#183
#183
KBVol said:
What the hell about that post was a dream? We'll be younger and less experienced but much faster and more talented.

A dream would've been me predicting our team full of freshmen would go 10-2 and play for the SEC championship. Didn't come close to saying that.
Click to expand...

Anything better than 5-7 is dreaming for this team. Gonna be ugly again.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#184
#184
daj2576 said:
You keep making this assertion which is incorrect.

I used to believe that until I dug deeper into the numbers. The distance between the talent on the teams is not as strongly correlated to score as you clearly believe. In fact, there many cases where similarly talented teams are blow outs, and where extremely large talent gapped teams are close games. The % chance for a win/loss still favors the more talented team 70/30, but to say that a game should be a blow out based on that determination, ignores all factors of a football game.
Click to expand...
If UT has the right coaches then a game at Neyland against a mid-major that just lost 14 of 22 starters should NOT be close.

However, game day motivation,
Click to expand...
Coaching issue.
weather,
Click to expand...
Preparation issue
officiating,
Click to expand...
Should not be that close.
freak injuries,
Click to expand...
Would have to be VERY freak if the coaching is there.
If you are simply basing the outcome (W/L) of the game on talent, you are probably correct, but if you are basing the score differential on the talent differential, you are looking at a relationship that is far less stable.
Click to expand...
You have multiple people on this site who are already rationalizing a loss to this team and you chose to parse my argument like that? Hmm.

BTW, are the factors you listed the legitimate reasons for UT getting blown out 4 times in '13? If so then we can dispense with the "played hard" for the coaching staff arguments.

As you caution others who are already making excuses for a loss, I caution you against using this very flawed theory on judging a win.
Click to expand...

I have attempted to factor in your objections and more. The answer still comes up that if UT is well coached, at home, with the talent differential they have then the game should not be close. And by that I mean not in serious jeopardy (11+ pts)... not 30 pts.
 
#185
#185
KingNick865 said:
Did you actually watch that game or are you one of those, "WE'RE TENNESSEE THEY'RE VANDY HURR," people?

Because if you did watch it, you'd know that Vandy and UT were pretty much even talent-wise.
Click to expand...

Yes I did... and no they weren't.
 
#186
#186
LotteryPick said:
Have you watched USU play?
Click to expand...

Yes. They were a good mid-major that just lost a bunch of starters. That means that this game comes down to talent, not experience, and what the respective coaches are able to do with that talent. If you want to argue that USU has a better coach then go ahead. But if UT has the better coach or they are even relatively equal then UT should control this game.
 
#188
#188
sjt18 said:
Yes. They were a good mid-major that just lost a bunch of starters. That means that this game comes down to talent, not experience, and what the respective coaches are able to do with that talent. If you want to argue that USU has a better coach then go ahead. But if UT has the better coach or they are even relatively equal then UT should control this game.
Click to expand...

Look at past SEC teams that they've played. They were close games. This game will be no different.

Keep on, though.
 
#192
#192
I have to shake my head and laugh at some of the people on here. Utah State is a good team and has talent, but UT has more. We have 14 kids who came in early to learn and play early in games just like this one and they are going to play their hearts out. We now have a runner and 2 receivers that can take it to the house on any given play. We have guys that can actually run now with speed and can tackle as well. We have guys that have been in the s&c program for at least a year and they are going to be stronger. Our QB have another year of experience and playmakers all over the field. We have a lot more talent than they do and these players are going to be playing hard! We play in the hardest conference in CFB and they play in MWC. Now add in the fact that it's been 9 months since the last UT football game and there will be a game day atmosphere those kids from Utah State will never forget: 95,000 rowdy fans all clad in Orange, pumped up stadium, pumped up experienced player and a whole lot of young men out to prove themselves. This game won't be close. I'd say 41-14.
 
#193
#193
rcvol said:
Anything better than 5-7 is dreaming for this team. Gonna be ugly again.
Posted via VolNation Mobile
Click to expand...

Again, who said anything about the record? Just said we will be a better, faster, more talented team, purged of a lot of players who knew nothing but how to lose. Have no idea what the record will be.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 1 person
#194
#194
sjt18 said:
If UT has the right coaches then a game at Neyland against a mid-major that just lost 14 of 22 starters should NOT be close.

Coaching issue. Preparation issue Should not be that close. Would have to be VERY freak if the coaching is there. You have multiple people on this site who are already rationalizing a loss to this team and you chose to parse my argument like that? Hmm.

BTW, are the factors you listed the legitimate reasons for UT getting blown out 4 times in '13? If so then we can dispense with the "played hard" for the coaching staff arguments.



I have attempted to factor in your objections and more. The answer still comes up that if UT is well coached, at home, with the talent differential they have then the game should not be close. And by that I mean not in serious jeopardy (11+ pts)... not 30 pts.
Click to expand...

All that is great except that the numbers do not bear you out.

If you rely on talent to just look at the outcome you are right about 70% of the time. in fact if you look at talent for UT alone, you would have been right 10 of 12 times for 2013.

Where you are wrong, summarily, is that talent can be used to predict blow out score differentials within relative certainty. So, for the 4 blow outs you speak of, how many should have been losses anyway? At least Bama and Auburn.

Scores don't matter beyond getting to a win/loss unless you are gambling. I implore you to stop adding a layer of difficulty to Jones. Not only do you want him to use talent to win or lose the games he should (reasonable), but you're asking him to win or lose by scores that you approve of or you'll feel justified in continuing your negativity. That's lunacy.
 
  • Like
Reactions: 2 people
#196
#196
Rudy123 said:
I remember the Air Force game in 2007! It was really close too.
Click to expand...

That was 2006, and it was right between the Cal and UF games.


Also we had to reshuffle the entire defensive backfield late in the game after a major injury to a starting DB.
 
#199
#199
Can someone post a link on how I can bet online? I can't find a site with that spread and ready to put a paycheck down.
 
#200
#200
Chucky Keaton is a heck of a player an will keep USU in the game, but I don't see this line holding for long. Tennessee will be the favorite by August for sure.
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.
Advertisement





Back
Top