'14 JUCO DT Davonte Lambert (Auburn Commit 12/18/13)

#751
#751
LebanonVolunteer said:
Oh Yeah? Well what about all the predictions for Chris Williams saying Ole Miss, when a lot of people on this very board said the Vols had the lead? How did that work out? Oh wait...
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Good grief I would think we would all know this is not a perfect science. Crystals balls,silents,team moderaters precicting,whatever recruitng happens all ways sometimes predictable sometimes not. Anybody on here thinking that have it all this recruiting figured out is whistling in the dark. All I know is Butch Jones and staff are doing better than anyone could ever envision, I am confident in the end we have a terrific class. And we will get our share of D-tackles before all is said and done. GO VOLS!
 
#752
#752
gobigorange11 said:
The crystal ball predictions are about the most useless thing on any board. How much of a prediction is it when you can change your guess as many times as you want at anytime you want...
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It is meant to harness the wisdom of the crowds... or at least wisdom of several. The stock market is the same way, it is meant to reflect all the known information at present. As recruiting changes, the predictions can change. How useless would the crystal ball be if the predictions could never change? Predictors can change their predictions when they get more information.

In the past, I have worked with someone who was trying to implement a "Prediction Market" for the purpose of forecasting recruiting. No one would bite, but 247's Crystal Ball has been very popular; AND as accurate (in general as a casual observation) as anything I've seen.
 
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#753
#753
Wilson27 said:
It would be nice to hear a practice report where someone says that O'Brien is looking like a monster out there. It would alleviate some stress going into the future.
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So last year, when all the reports of the team doing so well came out, how did the season end up?

I don't need someone to tell me how well O'Brien is doing, to "adjust" my appreciation for them or contribution to the team.

It's incredibly hard to be a student athlete, and this kid was highly recruited out of high school. We are lucky Michigan did not pull him.

Lambert would be a huge get for us. Let's hope we can keep the momentum from his visit going.
 
#754
#754
HuntsVol_AL said:
It is meant to harness the wisdom of the crowds... or at least wisdom of several. The stock market is the same way, it is meant to reflect all the known information at present. As recruiting changes, the predictions can change. How useless would the crystal ball be if the predictions could never change? Predictors can change their predictions when they get more information.

In the past, I have worked with someone who was trying to implement a "Prediction Market" for the purpose of forecasting recruiting. No one would bite, but 247's Crystal Ball has been very popular; AND as accurate (in general as a casual observation) as anything I've seen.
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The crystal ball is crap. They get word of a commit coming, then spoil the kid's announcement so they can show how "right" they were. It's a joke.

Example: basketball recruit Larry Austin last Thursday morning was 100% KST with 2 votes. Then they get word he's announcing so they have some recruiting "editor" put in a pick for UT to insure themselves because they really don't know who he is picking. Word leaks out the kid is going to pick UT, and they all the sudden have 8 picks 100% UT.
 
#755
#755
BigZiti09 said:
The crystal ball is crap. They get word of a commit coming, then spoil the kid's announcement so they can show how "right" they were. It's a joke.

Example: basketball recruit Larry Austin last Thursday morning was 100% KST with 2 votes. Then they get word he's announcing so they have some recruiting "editor" put in a pick for UT to insure themselves because they really don't know who he is picking. Word leaks out the kid is going to pick UT, and they all the sudden have 8 picks 100% UT.
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Recruits will pick up on it at some point and start giving false info just to see the fallout when they are all wrong. 247 guys speak to Lambert on the 12th and he lets them know he is headed to Gainesville. It "leaks" and when 14 new predictions show UF, he picks Tennessee the next day while sitting back laughing. "Hey 247, up yours". :)
 
#756
#756
BigZiti09 said:
The crystal ball is crap. They get word of a commit coming, then spoil the kid's announcement so they can show how "right" they were. It's a joke.

Example: basketball recruit Larry Austin last Thursday morning was 100% KST with 2 votes. Then they get word he's announcing so they have some recruiting "editor" put in a pick for UT to insure themselves because they really don't know who he is picking. Word leaks out the kid is going to pick UT, and they all the sudden have 8 picks 100% UT.
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This. They change their picks a few hrs before a kid anounce then stick out their chest and say "I have predicted 95% of recruits correctly."
 
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#757
#757
gobigorange11 said:
This. They change their picks a few hrs before a kid anounce then stick out their chest and say "I have predicted 95% of recruits correctly."
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Sounds like an efficient market... The point is that the predictions more or less reflect the information at any given moment. You shouldn't look at the crystal ball as a static number. The predictions can and SHOULD change as more information becomes known.
 
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#758
#758
BigZiti09 said:
The crystal ball is crap. They get word of a commit coming, then spoil the kid's announcement so they can show how "right" they were. It's a joke.

Example: basketball recruit Larry Austin last Thursday morning was 100% KST with 2 votes. Then they get word he's announcing so they have some recruiting "editor" put in a pick for UT to insure themselves because they really don't know who he is picking. Word leaks out the kid is going to pick UT, and they all the sudden have 8 picks 100% UT.
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You're surprised or upset that numbers correctly reach toward 100% when uncertainty decreases? If so, you're missing the point.
 
#759
#759
HuntsVol_AL said:
You're surprised or upset that numbers correctly reach toward 100% when uncertainty decreases? If so, you're missing the point.
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It's not a prediction at that point. The crystal ball thing has merit until the final day. The word gets out an hour or two before the announcement. Then you get tweets by Rucker bragging about 247 being 100%. It's a joke.
 
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#760
#760
HuntsVol_AL said:
You're surprised or upset that numbers correctly reach toward 100% when uncertainty decreases? If so, you're missing the point.
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So yeah, I get what you're saying. It's based on info available. That's fine.

But that's not what 247 bills it as after the fact. They brag about their % of accuracy and it also ruins the announcement for the kid.
 
#761
#761
They are changing it to a point system soon so people who put in their prediction an hour before the announcement will get hardly any points and those who put in months prior will get a ton of points. Should make it more obvious who's predictions carry weight and who just change it at the last minute to look right.
 
#762
#762
Volforevera said:
They are changing it to a point system soon so people who put in their prediction an hour before the announcement will get hardly any points and those who put in months prior will get a ton of points. Should make it more obvious who's predictions carry weight and who just change it at the last minute to look right.
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247 insider.... Please deliver my message to your next meeting: Get rid of Rucker. I saw the free sub for the entire season, but I refuse to be apart of a pay site involving that doiche bag. Not even sure I'd take it if you gave me money. Soon as that twit is gone I might subscribe.
 
#763
#763
Volforevera said:
They are changing it to a point system soon so people who put in their prediction an hour before the announcement will get hardly any points and those who put in months prior will get a ton of points. Should make it more obvious who's predictions carry weight and who just change it at the last minute to look right.
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Gotcha. That type of scoring will probably yield better results... I still think that a prediction market (not just "experts", but everyone) would prove to be more accurate. It would be continuously updated... I think that it would be more popular than the Crystal Ball.

But back to Lambert... want. Need more beasts in the middle of the DL who can contribute at a high level next year.
 
#764
#764
BigZiti09 said:
So yeah, I get what you're saying. It's based on info available. That's fine.

But that's not what 247 bills it as after the fact. They brag about their % of accuracy and it also ruins the announcement for the kid.
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Good point! I guess that I kinda' ignoring the 247 marketing of the number. If they're making claims for their overall accuracy based on the predictions at the time of commitment, it is pretty lame.
 
#765
#765
Now that Humphrey set his date for August 17th announcement coinsides with the thought that we may be waiting to hear from Lambert before we take Connor's commitment.

Would love to get them both.
 
#766
#766
Ericvol2096 said:
Now that Humphrey set his date for August 17th announcement coinsides with the thought that we may be waiting to hear from Lambert before we take Connor's commitment.

Would love to get them both.
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I don't think we are at the point where we can just pick and choose players.
 
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#770
#770
Lambert on the 13th.

Humphreys on the 17th.

Mosley on the 26th.

Another coordination by CBJ?
 
#771
#771
jspvol76 said:
Lambert on the 13th.

Humphreys on the 17th.

Mosley on the 26th.

Another coordination by CBJ?
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That'd be gravy. I'd be more than happy with 2 out of the 3. Just unreal what CBJ and staff have been able to accomplish since taking over.
 
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