It's difficult for me to imagine many colleges ceasing to exist, but this may certainly be a factor in bursting the college bubble/downsizing.
Existing tuition increases are unsustainable. Sooner or later the easy credit will dry up. Programs will be cut.
I forecast the following order of cutbacks for state schools:
1. Cutting back on paid faculty. Associate Professors are already seeing their teaching loads increase dramatically, and the tenured positions being offered are not the same sweetheart deals they used to be. PhDs currently entering onto faculties can no longer expect to only teach one course a week when they are full professors. The tenured professors that currently have these amazing jobs will eventually die, and those amazing assignments will die with them.
2. Cutting back on administrators. There are so many BS positions within universities and universities will cut them because they add no value. Instead, the universities are beginning to hold the faculty accountable for ensuring that things are done properly and that students are properly advised. Many private universities have made the transition to faculty advisers, it is working, and public institutions will follow suit. Further, associate professors and professors being offered tenure are now expected to cover down on more than simply teaching and publishing.
3. Cutting back on certain courses and programs. This will be a last resort, further it will be the hardest to implement since it necessarily means either getting rid of or reassigning tenured professors, which is damn near impossible to do without cause.
Further, and unfortunately, the university is not going anywhere because it is still viewed very much as simply the 13th grade, the automatic next step that is necessary to both the student's development as a person and to the student's future career prospects. And, since it is viewed as necessary, parents and students will continue to pay more than they should for a wide range of degrees.
