Time Machine: What If Brian Kelly Accepted UT HC Position

#1
OuterBanksVol

OuterBanksVol

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#1
After Fulmer was shown the door (corrected on timing here), word was that Brian Kelly (at Cincinnati at the time) was among a number of coaches that politely told the UT athletic dept 'No thank you' to our HC position offer. Of course, Mr. Kelly went on to accept the Notre Dame position, while Kiffen accepted the UT position, and then DD followed in Kiffy's mattress-burning wake.

The first upcoming BCS poll comes out this weekend, and the *computer* rankings have the 5-0 Irish as #1. Meanwhile, we Vols are slightly above mediocreville having cracked the top 25 for the first time in years, and now sit at 3-2.

So, would it have made a difference had Kelly come to UT? I offer the following based on 2 factors only: recruiting and win/loss record.

Interestingly, Notre Dame's recruiting record is nearly identical to the Vols over the past 3 years, per Rivals:

2010
Notre Dame #14
UT #9

2011
Notre Dame #10
UT #13

2012
Notre Dame #20
UT #17

Average 3-year recruiting rank:
Notre Dame 14.6
UT 13.0

So, based solely on recruiting records, both teams are building top-20 teams.

The actual team records, though, seem to tell a very different story:

2010
Notre Dame 8-5
UT 6-7

2011
Notre Dame 8-5
UT 5-7

2012
Notre Dame 5-0
UT 3-2

Total 3-year record:
Notre Dame 21-10
UT 14-16

Obviously, ND looks far better on paper. But, would Kelly have posted a better record than DD had he come to UT? The quality of Notre Dame's opponents raises questions about the strength of their team v. UT, as follows:

2010
Notre Dame (played 2 ranked opponents - no top 10)
UT (played 5 ranked opponents - 3 top 10)

2011
Notre Dame 8-5 (played 2 ranked opponents - no top 10)
UT 5-7 (played 6 ranked opponents - 3 top 10)

2012
Notre Dame 5-0 (played 2 ranked opponents - 1 top 10)
UT 3-2 (played 2 ranked opponents - 1 top 10)

Total # of 3-year ranked opponents:
Notre Dame (6 ranked opponents - 1 top 10)
UT (13 ranked opponents - 7 top 10)

Until this year, the Irish have clearly had cupcake schedules, while the Vols have played in the toughest conference in the nation.

So my take on what effect Brian Kelly would have had on UT had he elected to be our HC is as follows: While the jury is still out on both he and DD, neither Kelly's recruiting record nor his win record suggest that he would have had more success than DD if he were in Knoxville.

At the end of the day, I believe our current team (with tough losses only to very strong UGA and FL teams) would stand toe to toe with Notre Dame on the field right now. By the end of the season, I expect both teams to be ranked pretty close to one another in the top-25.

I know Irish fans will be pumped to see that #1 computer rank this weekend, and it definitely sucks to watch their quick 'turnaround'. But, in reality, DD has built a Vol team that is ever bit as good as them, and I think we just need to keep in mind that the SEC is a brutal, brutal conference.

The worm will turn folks. Keep the faith. GBO!
 
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#3
#3
very good analysis. Oddly, i have been wondering about Kelly had he come here as well. Reading your numbers sheds alot of light on things i hadnt really given much consideration to. ultimately, i look at it like this. If we had played ND"s schedule this season, i think we'd be 5-0 and if they had played ours i think they would be 3-2, which sorta tells the same story as your numbers...pretty evenly matched teams it would seem. bottom line, we will never know for sure, but one thing we DO know for sure and both probably agree on, is that we hate the domers...GO VOLS and Get well soon Dooles
 
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#5
#5
Kelley would have bombed here. He loses his temper and goes off to easily. Would of not worked with the rebuilding job required here. He would of list his players a long time ago.
 
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#7
#7
OuterBanksVol said:
After Kiffen bolted, word was that Brian Kelly (at Cincinnati at the time) was among a number of coaches that politely told the UT athletic dept 'No thank you' to our HC position offer. Of course, Mr. Kelly went on to accept the Notre Dame position, while DD eventually accepted the UT position.
Click to expand...

UTK said:
He would of left us after 1 year like Kiffin, ND is his "Dream job"
Click to expand...

Wow, facts are just running rampant in this thread. :crazy:

When Kiffin left for USC, Kelly had already been the ND coach for over a month. He didn't coach Cincy in their bowl game that year and would not have switched gears to come to UT after 5 weeks on the job in South Bend.

The only hypothetical worth discussing would be "what if UT had hired him INSTEAD of Kiffin?" Still to this day I wish Hamilton had found a way to get Kelly. At the time I was fine with the Kiffin hire, but obviously looking back Kelly would have been the better choice.
 
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#8
#8
he would have killed a kid on a scissor lift just to capture a few more plays from a practice
 
#9
#9
bleedorange0037 said:
Wow, facts are just running rampant in this thread. :crazy:

When Kiffin left for USC, Kelly had already been the ND coach for over a month. He didn't coach Cincy in their bowl game that year and would not have switched gears to come to UT after 5 weeks on the job in South Bend.

The only hypothetical worth discussing would be "what if UT had hired him INSTEAD of Kiffin?" Still to this day I wish Hamilton had found a way to get Kelly. At the time I was fine with the Kiffin hire, but obviously looking back Kelly would have been the better choice.
Click to expand...

http://www.volnation.com/forum/tenn...omparing-programs-tn-vs-nd-2.html#post7353493

Post by Jack will make you sick.
 
#11
#11
I think he's a bit overrated as a coach. He's lost some head scratchers while at ND - Michagan last year, UCF at home, etc..
 
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#12
#12
fade route said:
I think he's a bit overrated as a coach. He's lost some head scratchers while at ND - Michagan last year, UCF at home, etc..
Click to expand...

So have a lot of coaches. Kelly has a track record of building programs from the ground up, which many believe this job entailed.

I agree with the sentiment that ND is his dream job, and always would have been a flight risk, but I don't the feelings that he would have "bombed here." Yeah-he has a temper-so do about 95% of all college coaches. He recruits well, is considered to be a good gameday coach and play-caller, and is great with the media and boosters. Those seem like qualities that would work at TN compared to where we are now.
 
#13
#13
utvolkyle06 said:
When the job came open, I really wanted Kelly and was disappointed when it did not happen. In other news I can't stand ND!
Click to expand...

That's who I was hoping Hamilton would hire as well. The job he did at Cincy was nothing short of miraculous.
 
#14
#14
I really wanted Brian Kelly when we hired Kiffin. If we had hired him, we'd have never gotten Nu'keese or Bryce Brown...so...
 
#17
#17
bleedorange0037 said:
Wow, facts are just running rampant in this thread. :crazy:

When Kiffin left for USC, Kelly had already been the ND coach for over a month. He didn't coach Cincy in their bowl game that year and would not have switched gears to come to UT after 5 weeks on the job in South Bend.

The only hypothetical worth discussing would be "what if UT had hired him INSTEAD of Kiffin?" Still to this day I wish Hamilton had found a way to get Kelly. At the time I was fine with the Kiffin hire, but obviously looking back Kelly would have been the better choice.
Click to expand...
I would like to see OuterBanksVol respond to this post.
 
#20
#20
OuterBanksVol said:
After Kiffen bolted, word was that Brian Kelly (at Cincinnati at the time) was among a number of coaches that politely told the UT athletic dept 'No thank you' to our HC position offer. Of course, Mr. Kelly went on to accept the Notre Dame position, while DD eventually accepted the UT position.

The first upcoming BCS poll comes out this weekend, and the *computer* rankings have the 5-0 Irish as #1. Meanwhile, we Vols are slightly above mediocreville having cracked the top 25 for the first time in years, and now sit at 3-2.

So, would it have made a difference had Kelly come to UT? I offer the following based on 2 factors only: recruiting and win/loss record.

Interestingly, Notre Dame's recruiting record is nearly identical to the Vols over the past 3 years, per Rivals:

2010
Notre Dame #14
UT #9

2011
Notre Dame #10
UT #13

2012
Notre Dame #20
UT #17

Average 3-year recruiting rank:
Notre Dame 14.6
UT 13.0

So, based solely on recruiting records, both teams are building top-20 teams.

The actual team records, though, seem to tell a very different story:

2010
Notre Dame 8-5
UT 6-7

2011
Notre Dame 8-5
UT 5-7

2012
Notre Dame 5-0
UT 3-2

Total 3-year record:
Notre Dame 21-10
UT 14-16

Obviously, ND looks far better on paper. But, would Kelly have posted a better record than DD had he come to UT? The quality of Notre Dame's opponents raises questions about the strength of their team v. UT, as follows:

2010
Notre Dame (played 2 ranked opponents - no top 10)
UT (played 5 ranked opponents - 3 top 10)

2011
Notre Dame 8-5 (played 2 ranked opponents - no top 10)
UT 5-7 (played 6 ranked opponents - 3 top 10)

2012
Notre Dame 5-0 (played 2 ranked opponents - 1 top 10)
UT 3-2 (played 2 ranked opponents - 1 top 10)

Total # of 3-year ranked opponents:
Notre Dame (6 ranked opponents - 1 top 10)
UT (13 ranked opponents - 7 top 10)

Until this year, the Irish have clearly had cupcake schedules, while the Vols have played in the toughest conference in the nation.

So my take on what effect Brian Kelly would have had on UT had he elected to be our HC is as follows: While the jury is still out on both he and DD, neither Kelly's recruiting record nor his win record suggest that he would have had more success than DD if he were in Knoxville.

At the end of the day, I believe our current team (with tough losses only to very strong UGA and FL teams) would stand toe to toe with Notre Dame on the field right now. By the end of the season, I expect both teams to be ranked pretty close to one another in the top-25.

I know Irish fans will be pumped to see that #1 computer rank this weekend, and it definitely sucks to watch their quick 'turnaround'. But, in reality, DD has built a Vol team that is ever bit as good as them, and I think we just need to keep in mind that the SEC is a brutal, brutal conference.

The worm will turn folks. Keep the faith. GBO!
Click to expand...

I think the schedule answers about every question...
 
#22
#22
Notre Dames schedule gets tougher at the end of the year usually...USC is always a big one for them and they do play Michigan every year...But yeah the rest of the schedule is crap.
 
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