Crystal Ball: How and why the Vols win
Tennessee by 10 points, say, 23-13.
That's my pregame pick for the Vols' next test against UCLA Saturday afternoon in Neyland Stadium.
Of course, things can happen with special teams, penalties and turnovers that could change the course of the game.
The Vols could win by as many as 20 points if the intangibles fall their way, or they could win by as few as three points if turnovers go against them.
But I feel comfortable saying that Tennessee fans can look forward to a 2-0 start. Say, 85-percent comfortable.
Why?
Coaches Lane and Monte Kiffin.
These are two men who know how to win games, but more importantly, they know how not to lose them.
If you're looking for Tennessee offensive fireworks, you'll likely have to wait until the fourth quarter when the Bruins figure to wear down in the Knoxville humidity.
Until then, I expect somewhat of a slugfest, with Lane Kiffin play-calling to avoid freebies thrown into UCLA's talented secondary, and Monte Kiffin ensuring the Bruins aren't getting behind his secondary for big plays.
Offensively, Bryce Brown figures to have the higher yards per carry of UT's top two tailbacks.
Montario Hardesty's powerful runs against Western Kentucky were impressive, but UCLA's front seven is considerably bigger, more talented and more experienced than hapless Western Kentucky.
The Bruins also have a pair of 195-pound plus safeties that won't be shy in run support.
It's going to take a back with vision and cutting ability to break off moderately long runs.
Jonathan Crompton's passes will remain of the safe variety, save a strategically placed deep ball here and there to keep the Bruins' from loading up on the run.
I talked to a former UT coach about the matchup, and he said the Vols will win if the offense doesn't get them beat.
Makes sense.
UCLA is starting a true freshman at left tackle and a redshirt freshman quarterback. That simply won't fly.
The Vols will get pressure and should be able to stuff the run more times than not, even with a wizard like Norm Chow at the offensive coordinator controls.
So long as Monte Kiffin doesn't get over-aggressive in his scheme - and I don't think he will - it's hard to imagine the Bruins sustaining drives.
That means the UCLA defense, talented as it is, will spend more time on the field than its depth can handle, and that means a fourth-quarter wear-down effect.
I could see the Bruins keeping this close for three quarters, but in the end, the Vols will prove too much and pull away.
How UCLA could win: Establish a run game on the perimeter or through the draw and not turn the ball over on offense, while on defense getting enough pressure on Jonathan Crompton to force errant passes and premature throws for interceptions. Special teams is another area the Bruins need to win, as they did last year, if they are to score the upset.
Matchup to watch: When the Vols throw the ball they will no doubt go at undersized sophomore Courtney Viney, who is listed at 5-foot-8 and 160 pounds.
It will be interesting to see if Kiffin can get Quinton Hancock (6-3, 207), Denarius Moore (6-1, 190) or Brandon Warren (6-2, 216) isolated on the Bruins' smurf cornerback.
I wouldn't be surprised to see UT go four or five-wide at times in search of the mismatch.
But Crompton need beware, because the rest of the UCLA secondary is very strong and capable.
Early Key: Take a look at the line of scrimmage when the Bruins have the ball. UCLA has three new players starting on the offensive line, and UT should have a decided advantage in the trenches when its defense is on the field.
The Bruins' inability to protect the quarterback and run the ball consistently should be their ultimate undoing.