All things STOCKS

#20,401
#20,401
Jax_Vol said:
ASML is an absolute beast IMO. They have a huge moat.

For me, the only concern is the tariff stuff which I'm not following.

Wouldn't think the Dutch are all that wild about our current Administration.

The flip side might also think the advisors would tell the prez that we need ASML.

Then he starts trying to tell them to not sell the new machines to China.

I haven't paid attention lately...
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China is already restricted from purchasing the newest machines from ASML.

What I’d be most concerned with is that the CCP will reverse engineer and steal the IP from the machines that they are able to get ahold of and then dumping counterfeit versions into ASML’s market. But maybe the rogue buyers of Chinese clones wouldn’t be able to avoid the pushback though since ASML is NOT an American company.
 
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#20,402
#20,402
Thunder Good-Oil said:
China is already restricted from purchasing the newest machines from ASML.

What I’d be most concerned with is that the CCP will reverse engineer and steal the IP from the machines that they are able to get ahold of and then dumping counterfeit versions into ASML’s market. But maybe the rogue buyers of Chinese clones wouldn’t be able to avoid the pushback though since ASML is NOT an American country.
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Forgot to mention that they also accidentally burn down their own manufacturing buildings.

Those crazy Dutchmen and their cigars
 
#20,405
#20,405
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I’m glad to see a real, non-tech business killing it today. CAT.
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I’ve held CAT for over 10 years. Bought it at the time as a solid company paying a good dividend. Last 10 years it’s up over 1,100 percent and I still don’t know why but will take it and be happy. Actually considering selling a portion as the recent run up seems too much too fast? Thoughts?
 
#20,406
#20,406
walkenvol said:
I’ve held CAT for over 10 years. Bought it at the time as a solid company paying a good dividend. Last 10 years it’s up over 1,100 percent and I still don’t know why but will take it and be happy. Actually considering selling a portion as the recent run up seems too much too fast? Thoughts?
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Seems that every time I try to 'day trade' or 'market time' a big winner, it just keeps on surging. And, I end up buying back in at a even higher price. Just did it again in April. Be like Warren B and just keep let those Benjamin's keep flowing into your account.
braveheart-hold-spirit-by-mel-gibson-i4qz7kumxvf4tuaj.gif
 
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#20,407
#20,407
walkenvol said:
I’ve held CAT for over 10 years. Bought it at the time as a solid company paying a good dividend. Last 10 years it’s up over 1,100 percent and I still don’t know why but will take it and be happy. Actually considering selling a portion as the recent run up seems too much too fast? Thoughts?
Click to expand...

Selling losers and keeping winners is a solid strategy. I wish that I would have been doing that consistently 10 or 20 years ago.

People want to get back to even. So there’s a lot of selling pressure all the way back up with one time losers.

CAT might keep going if building domestic manufacturing remains a government theme for an extended period of time. Power generation/distribution and roads as well as the actual production facilities. Of course CAT also does A LOT of oversees business.
 
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#20,408
#20,408
walkenvol said:
I’ve held CAT for over 10 years. Bought it at the time as a solid company paying a good dividend. Last 10 years it’s up over 1,100 percent and I still don’t know why but will take it and be happy. Actually considering selling a portion as the recent run up seems too much too fast? Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I was in the earth moving business for several years in the 90s and 00s, We primarily built new roads in residential subdivisions, malls, pads for manufacturing sites and warehouses, etc.
Cat equipment is generally considered the best. Especially doziers and pans. They are very expensive and repair parts are also expensive. Some nuts/ bolts might cost $20-25. But you are not shut down with a crew standing around because a piece of equipment is broken down.
I've had CAT stock for quite a while.
 
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#20,409
#20,409
Anybody feeling good about any puts this week? PLTR is paying a nice percentage on both puts and calls this morning IMO.
 
#20,410
#20,410
walkenvol said:
Anybody feeling good about any puts this week? PLTR is paying a nice percentage on both puts and calls this morning IMO.
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PLTR puts and calls both have pretty rich premiums right now. Earnings are released after today’s close.

AI:

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is reporting Q1 2026 earnings on May 4, 2026, with exceptionally high market expectations following a series of stellar, AI-driven quarters. Investors are looking to see if the company can sustain its explosive U.S. commercial growth.

Q1 2026 Earnings Expectations
  • Revenue Projection: Analysts expect revenue of approximately $1.54 billion, representing a ~74% year-over-year jump.
  • Earnings Per Share (EPS): Adjusted EPS is projected at 28 cents, which would more than double from the 13 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.
  • Key Growth Driver: U.S. commercial sales are projected to surge by 137% to $605 million in Q1, highlighting the continued rapid adoption of the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP).
  • Management Guidance: Palantir’s own Q1 revenue guidance ($1.532–$1.536 billion) is exceptionally strong, setting a high bar for "beat-and-raise" scenarios.

Key Focus Areas
  1. AIP Demand Velocity: Investors will focus on whether AIP bootcamps continue to convert into large-scale deals (like the 180 deals of \(\ge\$1\) million closed in Q4 2025).
  2. U.S. Government Traction: Following the formalization of Project Maven as a program of record, analysts are looking for continued strength in U.S. defense revenue.
  3. Margin Sustainability: The company has targeted an adjusted free cash flow margin of over 50%, with high attention on whether GAAP profitability continues, as shown in Q4 2025.
  4. Full-Year 2026 Outlook: Management previously guided 2026 revenue of $7.18–$7.20 billion; any change to this outlook will be heavily scrutinized.

Market Sentiment and Risks
  • High Valuation: PLTR stock trades at a premium—roughly 97 to 105 times projected 12-month earnings—requiring consistent, high-end growth to justify its price.
  • Bullish vs. Bearish Split: Despite the high premium, analysts are largely bullish, with many regarding Palantir as a "pure play" on AI with strong US momentum, while others warn of potential slowdowns.
  • Post-Earnings Volatility: Options traders are bracing for a potential ~10% swing in the stock price following the report, reflecting the high-stakes environment.
  • Competition: Some investors are monitoring potential competition from other AI models (e.g., Anthropic) which have introduced new tools.
 
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#20,411
#20,411
Top Strategies for High Volatility (Direction Unknown)
  • Long Straddle (At-the-Money)
    • Setup: Buy 1 Call and Buy 1 Put with the same strike price (usually At-the-Money) and same expiration.
    • Best for: High conviction that a large move is coming, but no idea which direction.
    • Pros: Profit potential is unlimited (upside) or substantial (downside) if the stock moves enough. Requires a smaller move to be profitable compared to a strangle.
    • Cons: Higher upfront cost because options are at-the-money (more expensive).
    • Breakeven: Strike Price \(\pm \) Total Premium Paid.
  • Long Strangle (Out-of-the-Money)
    • Setup: Buy 1 OTM Call and Buy 1 OTM Put with different strike prices (call above, put below) and same expiration.
    • Best for: When volatility is expected but options are expensive, allowing you to use cheaper, OTM options.
    • Pros: Lower upfront cost and lower risk if the stock stays flat.
    • Cons: Requires a much larger move in the stock price to become profitable.
    • Breakeven: Upper = Call Strike + Premium; Lower = Put Strike - Premium.

Strategies for High Volatility (Directional Bias)
If you believe a large move is coming and you have a directional view, you can use vertical spreads to lower costs:
  • Bull Call Spread: For a large expected move upward.
  • Bear Put Spread: For a large expected move downward.

Key Risks and Considerations
  • Volatility Crush (IV Crush): If you buy options when implied volatility is very high, and the anticipated news event occurs, volatility often drops sharply ("crush"). Even if the stock moves in your direction, the option price might decrease, leading to a loss.
  • Time Decay (Theta): These strategies lose money every day the stock does not make a significant move, accelerating as expiration approaches.
  • Profitability: For a long straddle/strangle to be profitable, the stock must move more than the total cost of the premiums paid.

Summary Comparison

Feature Long StraddleLong Strangle
Strike PricesSame (ATM)Different (OTM)
Upfront CostHigherLower
Required MoveSmallerLarger
RiskLimited to premiumLimited to premium
Time DecayHighVery High
 
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#20,412
#20,412
Thunder Good-Oil said:
More likely, in my opinion, that creates additional business for ASML. Kind of the same with Taiwan. If they fall or are disrupted then chip production capacity just goes somewhere else and ASML will sell there.
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What price would you consider selling a put for ASML. Get 1.6% on a $1370 on 5/8 with current price at $1384?
 
#20,413
#20,413
Thunder Good-Oil said:
PLTR puts and calls both have pretty rich premiums right now. Earnings are released after today’s close.

AI:

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is reporting Q1 2026 earnings on May 4, 2026, with exceptionally high market expectations following a series of stellar, AI-driven quarters. Investors are looking to see if the company can sustain its explosive U.S. commercial growth.

Q1 2026 Earnings Expectations
  • Revenue Projection: Analysts expect revenue of approximately $1.54 billion, representing a ~74% year-over-year jump.
  • Earnings Per Share (EPS): Adjusted EPS is projected at 28 cents, which would more than double from the 13 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.
  • Key Growth Driver: U.S. commercial sales are projected to surge by 137% to $605 million in Q1, highlighting the continued rapid adoption of the Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP).
  • Management Guidance: Palantir’s own Q1 revenue guidance ($1.532–$1.536 billion) is exceptionally strong, setting a high bar for "beat-and-raise" scenarios.

Key Focus Areas
  1. AIP Demand Velocity: Investors will focus on whether AIP bootcamps continue to convert into large-scale deals (like the 180 deals of \(\ge\$1\) million closed in Q4 2025).
  2. U.S. Government Traction: Following the formalization of Project Maven as a program of record, analysts are looking for continued strength in U.S. defense revenue.
  3. Margin Sustainability: The company has targeted an adjusted free cash flow margin of over 50%, with high attention on whether GAAP profitability continues, as shown in Q4 2025.
  4. Full-Year 2026 Outlook: Management previously guided 2026 revenue of $7.18–$7.20 billion; any change to this outlook will be heavily scrutinized.

Market Sentiment and Risks
  • High Valuation: PLTR stock trades at a premium—roughly 97 to 105 times projected 12-month earnings—requiring consistent, high-end growth to justify its price.
  • Bullish vs. Bearish Split: Despite the high premium, analysts are largely bullish, with many regarding Palantir as a "pure play" on AI with strong US momentum, while others warn of potential slowdowns.
  • Post-Earnings Volatility: Options traders are bracing for a potential ~10% swing in the stock price following the report, reflecting the high-stakes environment.
  • Competition: Some investors are monitoring potential competition from other AI models (e.g., Anthropic) which have introduced new tools.
Click to expand...
I jumped in this morning on a call for $157.5 due 5/8 paying $370 and a put for $140 due 5/8 paying $385.
 
#20,414
#20,414
walkenvol said:
What price would you consider selling a put for ASML. Get 1.6% on a $1370 on 5/8 with current price at $1384?
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I don’t know if I’d sell a put right now on ASML. It was $1,000 stock 6 months ago and is trading at a 50x PE.

If I did I’d look at the contracts 2-3 weeks out with a strike well below the current trading price. But I’m still a newbie with options. I use them, for the most part, instead of limit buy/sell orders to improve my price on trades that I want to step into and pocket the premium if the underlying price moves away from my strike.
 
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#20,415
#20,415
These are my first venture into trading futures. I had 2 structured notes call in early last week and have a bunch of cash I need to put to work. I need to determine some more individual stocks I want to own as I was also viewing the puts as a mechanism to purchase at a lower price or get paid to wait.
 
#20,416
#20,416
walkenvol said:
These are my first venture into trading futures. I had 2 structured notes call in early last week and have a bunch of cash I need to put to work. I need to determine some more individual stocks I want to own as I was also viewing the puts as a mechanism to purchase at a lower price or get paid to wait.
Click to expand...

It seems like most of the interest (high premiums) is in the tech names. But I feel like I’m overweighted in the sector. But, at least it’s getting so big that there’s a fair amount of intra-sector diversification available in the various sub-industries (software, chips, cloud, storage, etc). Even outside of “tech” many companies are considered tech companies. UBER for example. Even Dominos (DPZ) is considered a tech platform.

Many of the traditional solid companies of the past just haven’t been doing a whole lot. Unless you’re patient and boring isn’t a concern. ADP/PAYX, DOW-30s, home construction. Maybe finance and especially healthcare will get moving again. I’m undecided about keeping BLSH. There’s the PEs, MMs, and hedge funds… APO, BLK, BX. Dexcom, Davita, ISRG, MDT. And if treading in the newer names maybe it’s a good time to delve into the crypto picks and shovels if not some of the actual currencies. MSTR.

AMZN might one day own the world the way that they grow both horizontally and vertically. They crushed FDX and UPS today. AAPL has a lot of room to grow in an integrated, connected world.
 
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