The Official #23 Tennessee [6] vs. #6 Iowa State [2] Game Thread, 10:10 PM ET, TBS

#30
#30
etsuvol13 said:
Simulation results (20,000 runs):

  • Iowa State win: 61.0%
  • Tennessee win: 39.0%
  • Median final: Iowa State 71, Tennessee 67
  • Average simulated final: Iowa State 70.5, Tennessee 67.5
  • Median total: 138
  • Over 138.5: 47.8%
  • Under 138.5: 52.2%
  • Iowa State -3.5 cover: 49.3%
  • Tennessee +3.5 cover: 50.7%
  • Overtime rate in the sim: 3.4%
Most likely score band

  • Iowa State most often landed in the 65–76 range
  • Tennessee most often landed in the 62–73 range
  • The middle 50% of simulated margins was roughly Iowa State by 5 to Tennessee by 5, with the exact median margin Iowa State by 3
  • The middle 50% of totals was about 129 to 147 points
Most common exact finals in the sim
  1. Iowa State 72, Tennessee 65
  2. Iowa State 71, Tennessee 70
  3. Iowa State 69, Tennessee 68
  4. Iowa State 73, Tennessee 67
  5. Iowa State 70, Tennessee 69
  6. Iowa State 72, Tennessee 66
  7. Iowa State 67, Tennessee 62
  8. Iowa State 69, Tennessee 65
  9. Iowa State 72, Tennessee 68
  10. Iowa State 75, Tennessee 71

What is driving the simulation
Iowa State gets the edge because its season profile is stronger overall: 82.5 points per game allowed only 65.3, a better assist-turnover profile, and elite turnover creation. Tennessee’s best path is exactly what the stats suggest: dominate the offensive glass and avoid live-ball turnovers. TeamRankings’ matchup simulation snippet reflects that tension directly, with Tennessee projected for a much better offensive-rebound rate but a much worse turnover rate in this matchup.

Clean takeaway
  • Likeliest practical score: Iowa State 70–71, Tennessee 67–68
  • Single-number pick: Iowa State 71, Tennessee 67
  • Game shape: tight, physical, and more likely to land just under than fly over, unless Tennessee’s guards handle the pressure unusually well or Jefferson ends up fully effective.
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What did the simultaneous say on the referees? Otherwise it’s pointless.
 
#31
#31
DarkVolder said:
Hope im wrong but i think the party ends for us tonight. We overachieved getting to the sweet 16.
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I think most feel that way, especially since we are 4 point dawgs. I was enthused that we had no turnovers in the first half Sunday which I did not think was possible. We did the impossible. That what the winners at this level usually do.
 
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#32
#32
DarkVolder said:
Hope im wrong but i think the party ends for us tonight. We overachieved getting to the sweet 16.
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Jesus glad your not stepping on courtn playin tonite , sure our vOLS feels other wise. But we are playing with house money now since a lot did t expect us get .
Out first weekend . Let’s go Vols , we win tonite in a close hard fought bring them to the dirt game 63. To 60
 
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#33
#33
I think we have over achieved by reaching the sweet 16……….but with that said, Barnes is usually good in these type of games with time to prepare. So, anything is possible even though we are underdogs. It’s gonna be extremely physical on the perimeter, hope Ament can rise above and show he is capable of playing in these type of games on this stage. It will also help if we can get some production offensively from Boswell like last game. It’s a late night game, so I have no idea what they do with the players all day, that’s gotta be frustrating for all. I’m hoping for the unexpected tonight and we pull off the upset. Go Vols in Chicago land.
 
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#34
#34
I always hate the late games, but this is reallyyy late. Gonna be a full day of anxiety for me 😅
 
#40
#40
YankeeVol said:
It helps if Jefferson is out for them. He's apparently a game time decision. I'd probably say he plays. Hopefully he's not too effective though.
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Don’t think he plays- hope not. We don’t have anyone that matches up well against him.

The pain usually comes back quickly even after “shooting up” the player so …. Time will tell.

Maybe JG or Ament will go off.
 
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#42
#42
The team doesn’t think they overachieved by making the sweet 16. Hopefully they come out fired up and ready to move on to another weekend
 
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#43
#43
we also are 1 of 3 teams with 4 consecutive Sweet 16 appearances the last 4 years. 2023-2026
 
#48
#48
DarkVolder said:
Hope im wrong but i think the party ends for us tonight. We overachieved getting to the sweet 16.
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Yep. This would be a tough ask even if Ament were 100%. This team exceeded expectations. No complaints from this grump.
 
#49
#49
GSPVol said:
Yep. This would be a tough ask even if Ament were 100%. This team exceeded expectations. No complaints from this grump.
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We exceeded last month’s expectations. We have only lived up to pre-season through January expectations. We were top 25 most of the year, so I still think we need to advance to the Elite 8 to have exceeded expectations.
 
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