All things STOCKS

#20,026
#20,026
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
I think like the tariff situation, cool heads in the investment world realize this might easily end in the next few days because short of boots on the ground we're not getting "our guy" to run Iran.

Trump either knows this or will come to this conclusion sooner rather than later and it will be like nothing happened except a regular slapback of Iran which needed to happen.
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IMO, the market seems to be really sanguine about the possibilities of not getting "our guy" to run Iran. What if someone worse takes over or what if they become a failed state, perpetually creating issues in the Strait?

We (or Israel) have killed most of their top leadership; it isn't like Venezuela where we got just one guy and are letting a crony of his who we get along with better run the show, while the rest of the government remained intact.
 
#20,027
#20,027
05_never_again said:
IMO, the market seems to be really sanguine about the possibilities of not getting "our guy" to run Iran. What if someone worse takes over or what if they become a failed state, perpetually creating issues in the Strait?

We (or Israel) have killed most of their top leadership; it isn't like Venezuela where we got just one guy and are letting a crony of his who we get along with better run the show, while the rest of the government remained intact.
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Iran has been hostile since the Shah was deposed and Israel and the US have put them back in their place repeatedly and IMO we will do it periodically for the foreseeable future. They aren't going to become a "pro West" country and hopefully will become a less hostile country but I wouldn't bet your stock portfolio on the needle moving much either way from this action.

As a stock sector "bump," from these few days of activity aren't something to move the needle as they've not really been a "bump" previously.

Despite whatever may be said from DC by any administration, short of going in and running Iran, they are and will be a persistent problem for Israel and US that needs dealing with now and then.

IMO we should've taken out a few leaders, a few nuclear scientists, the usual nuke sites and called it success. As it is, we've got little left to accomplish in Iran unless we want to go in and we don't want to go in.
 
#20,028
#20,028
05_never_again said:
The market certainly doesn't go "all the way" with whatever he happens to say at any given moment, that is for sure. For example I've thought since last April that if the markets believed the tariffs he proposed on Liberation Day were going to stick, I think we would have seen a 30-40% drawdown instead of the 21% one that occurred. I think the markets "knew" (priced in the probability of) he would back off of those stated tariff levels, and that's exactly what happened.

Even still though, for a name like RTX to only be up 0.6% this week after we started a war with Iran is surprising. It gapped up Monday morning, but since then has been trading like almost nothing happened.
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RTX was up big last week/ 1.5 weeks (195 to 212) becuase it was clear what was going to happen in Iran.

Subtlety isnt what this admin is known for...
 
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#20,029
#20,029
BigOrangeMojo said:
RTX was up big last week/ 1.5 weeks (195 to 212) becuase it was clear what was going to happen in Iran.

Subtlety isnt what this admin is known for...
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Then when the missiles started to fly, the buy the rumor sell the news took the market’s wheel.

The SCOTUS ruling on tariffs has put downward pressure on defense contractors since Trump had proposed bumping the $800-$900 billion annual expenditures up to $1.5 trillion.

So who knows? RTX and LMT are also selling a lot of toys for the outer space economy. They’re also strategically necessary businesses so there’s a floor.
 
#20,030
#20,030
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Then when the missiles started to fly, the buy the rumor sell the news took the market’s wheel.

The SCOTUS ruling on tariffs has put downward pressure on defense contractors since Trump had proposed bumping the $800-$900 billion annual expenditures up to $1.5 trillion.

So who knows? RTX and LMT are also selling a lot of toys for the outer space economy. They’re also strategically necessary businesses so there’s a floor.
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RTX ran up right after the tariff ruling since it was pretty clear Iran was going to be the distraction after that.

But yeah, the 1.5T looks less likely now so I think that muted the impact this week.

Maybe Crockett losing in Texas muted it too. If she had won, the Dems would not have got back the Senate since either R beats her and the Ds map to get back the Senate (and cut Defense spending) gets really tight...
 
#20,038
#20,038
Indicating another big ass sell off at the opening bell on Monday.

February CPI before the Wednesday session.

Q4 GDP first revision before the Friday session.
 
#20,039
#20,039
Until there’s some resolution wrt Iran, there’s nothing giving markets any confidence.
 
#20,040
#20,040
Vol737 said:
Until there’s some resolution wrt Iran, there’s nothing giving markets any confidence.
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Earnings season kicks off in a month.

Mid term election noise will be loud this year and will be ramping up in the next few months.

Hard to say what effect alternatives to tariffs will bring.

Oil prices. Oil exports. Inflation. Unemployment. Pick your poison. I’d think that unemployment isn’t an issue. There are jobs for those that want a job. AI is years away from disrupting that. It seems like having enough workers will be a challenge for the next decade or two. But we’ve been able to observe how Japan and much of Europe tackles that problem.
 
#20,041
#20,041
BigOrangeMojo said:
NKE and FIVE in the 53s
LULU and CRM at $240
HAL in the 19s
WYNN at $67
TGT and NVDA in $92s
ADBE at $350
TSM in the 145s
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Want to look a year later from tariff crash. Some definite misses (ADBE, LULU, CRM) but equally weighting these 10 wouls have been a 65% return...
 
#20,043
#20,043
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Earnings season kicks off in a month.

Mid term election noise will be loud this year and will be ramping up in the next few months.

Hard to say what effect alternatives to tariffs will bring.

Oil prices. Oil exports. Inflation. Unemployment. Pick your poison. I’d think that unemployment isn’t an issue. There are jobs for those that want a job. AI is years away from disrupting that. It seems like having enough workers will be a challenge for the next decade or two. But we’ve been able to observe how Japan and much of Europe tackles that problem.
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Some good news from somewhere would help. Midterms will be interesting to see what they reveal. From $100+ oil leading up to the financial crisis and now today, those levels seems to overshadow a lot of other areas in the world economy. Makes it harder to pin things down. Haven’t figured out if I think this Iran thing is temporary or goes longer than we hope. I’ve always been an energy hound one way or another, though. This surge hasn’t hurt. I’m just more cautious elsewhere for the foreseeable future.
 
#20,045
#20,045
Vol737 said:
Some good news from somewhere would help. Midterms will be interesting to see what they reveal. From $100+ oil leading up to the financial crisis and now today, those levels seems to overshadow a lot of other areas in the world economy. Makes it harder to pin things down. Haven’t figured out if I think this Iran thing is temporary or goes longer than we hope. I’ve always been an energy hound one way or another, though. This surge hasn’t hurt. I’m just more cautious elsewhere for the foreseeable future.
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We can end the Iran push quickly if we can avoid our internal bickering. Same thing hapoened with Vietnam. It would have ended 5 years sooner if we’d have not di*ked around. I hope that we keep surgically destroying Iran and get our troops out of harms way ASAP.
 
#20,047
#20,047
Usually these things end when the selloff gets disorderly in some way.

So far, this is the most orderly decline I've ever seen despite some panic-inducing headlines; it feels like how a rally moves upwards (methodically) but in reverse. There's nothing liquidative about it.
 
#20,048
#20,048
Thunder Good-Oil said:
We can end the Iran push quickly if we can avoid our internal bickering. Same thing hapoened with Vietnam. It would have ended 5 years sooner if we’d have not di*ked around. I hope that we keep surgically destroying Iran and get our troops out of harms way ASAP.
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So we will only be in Iran 15 years.
 
#20,049
#20,049
05_never_again said:
Usually these things end when the selloff gets disorderly in some way. Well,

So far, this is the most orderly decline I've ever seen despite some panic-inducing headlines; it feels like how a rally moves upwards (methodically) but in reverse. There's nothing liquidative about it.
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Well, I'm buying in small lots as the price decreases. XDIV, a SP500 etf that doesn't pay dividends.
 
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