How did recruiting services miss so bad on Iliinois’ Keaton Wagler?

#1
brockytop

brockytop

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#1
He was 247’s No. 152 ranked player and On3’s No. 179 ranked player in the 2025 national rankings. Now he’s a national POTY finalist and clearly one of the very best freshmen in this amazing class.

I don’t recall the last player with his kind of impact as a freshman that was so underrated coming out of high school. Any names come to mind?
 
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#2
#2
brockytop said:
He was 247’s No. 152 ranked player and On3’s No. 179 ranked player in the 2025 national rankings. Now he’s a national POTY finalist and clearly one of the very best freshmen in this amazing class.

I don’t recall the last player with his kind of impact as a freshman that was so underrated coming out of high school. Any names come to mind?
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I think Steph Curry was rated somewhere in the mid 400s his senior year
 
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#4
#4
Even a guy like Ja Morant (who could have been a late first round pick if he entered after freshman season) needed a second year to be a high lottery pick coming from nowhere....

Even a Chris Lofton wasnt nowhere near this as a freshman (nor the NBA upside either)
 
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#5
#5
I had to use Google, but Damian Lillard was a 2 star recruit out of high school and won Big Sky Freshman of year 2009 and Big Sky POY in 2010 and 2012 at Weber State before becoming the 6th overall pick.

That’s the only lottery pick who showed up on my search.

I don’t know what the ratings were like before websites began publishing the ranking on the internet in the early 2000’s. I assume most people couldn’t keep up with it before.
 
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#6
#6
Recruiting services miss on individual players over time.

What they don't miss on is that the only programs over time that consistently compete for (and win) titles are ones who have top 5 classes...until Indiana football this year. The Portal might end up completely changing that trend.
 
#7
#7
adam.vol said:
I had to use Google, but Damian Lillard was a 2 star recruit out of high school and won Big Sky Freshman of year 2009 and Big Sky POY in 2010 and 2012 at Weber State before becoming the 6th overall pick.

That’s the only lottery pick who showed up on my search.

I don’t know what the ratings were like before websites began publishing the ranking on the internet in the early 2000’s. I assume most people couldn’t keep up with it before.
Click to expand...

There were recruiting analysts back into the 70’s. Parade Magazine put out a HS All America team (believe famed DeMatha coach Morgan Wooten led the panel that picked the players) and Blue Ribbon Basketball ranked HS and JUCO recruits.

As for Wagler, I’d love to know if Illinois had a clue he was a steal and would be this good as a freshman?
 
#8
#8
brockytop said:
There were recruiting analysts back into the 70’s. Parade Magazine put out a HS All America team (believe famed DeMatha coach Morgan Wooten led the panel that picked the players) and Blue Ribbon Basketball ranked HS and JUCO recruits.

As for Wagler, I’d love to know if Illinois had a clue he was a steal and would be this good as a freshman?
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When I think of HS All American teams, I think of something more merit based than a measure of potential, unlike what On3 and 247 currently put out.

I have a feeling that the kid has exceeded expectations whether they knew they had a hidden gem or not. But that question would make for a good interview.
 
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#9
#9
BigOrangeMojo said:
Even a guy like Ja Morant (who could have been a late first round pick if he entered after freshman season) needed a second year to be a high lottery pick coming from nowhere....

Even a Chris Lofton wasnt nowhere near this as a freshman (nor the NBA upside either)
Click to expand...
I live where Ja is from. nowhere is an upgrade to here
 
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#12
#12
brockytop said:
There were recruiting analysts back into the 70’s. Parade Magazine put out a HS All America team (believe famed DeMatha coach Morgan Wooten led the panel that picked the players) and Blue Ribbon Basketball ranked HS and JUCO recruits.

As for Wagler, I’d love to know if Illinois had a clue he was a steal and would be this good as a freshman?
Click to expand...
Parade Magazine had a HS All American issue in the 60s. First one I remember was 1963 Sophomore Lew Alcindor named POY. You may remember him as Kareem Abdul Jabbar. We are the same age.
 
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#13
#13
brockytop said:
He was 247’s No. 152 ranked player and On3’s No. 179 ranked player in the 2025 national rankings. Now he’s a national POTY finalist and clearly one of the very best freshmen in this amazing class.

I don’t recall the last player with his kind of impact as a freshman that was so underrated coming out of high school. Any names come to mind?
Click to expand...
How many players do you think get evaluated every single year? There are gonna be plenty of misses. Always have been and always will
be.
 
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#14
#14
Savannahbayvol said:
Parade Magazine had a HS All American issue in the 60s. First one I remember was 1963 Sophomore Lew Alcindor named POY. You may remember him as Kareem Abdul Jabbar. We are the same age.
Click to expand...

Lee Alcindor, Power Memorial High School, New York City.
 
#15
#15
BigOrangeTrain said:
How many players do you think get evaluated every single year? There are gonna be plenty of misses. Always have been and always will
be.
Click to expand...

No kidding.

Now tell me the last player that had the same kind of impact as a freshman that Wagler’s had that was ranked as low coming out of high school? I’ll wait.
 
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#16
#16
Tyrus Thomas at LSU way back 05-06 comes to mind. Last minute add as a signee didn’t qualify. LSU made the Final 4 run and he ended up a top 5 pick.
 
#17
#17
brockytop said:
No kidding.

Now tell me the last player that had the same kind of impact as a freshman that Wagler’s had that was ranked as low coming out of high school? I’ll wait.
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Isn’t Wagler averaging like 12 or 13 a game? I haven’t watched him much, but it seems like I recall seeing that recently. I thought I’d see 20 based on your post.

Edit: Scratch that. He is almost 20. Not sure what I was looking at.
 
#18
#18
I remember the one that preceded the interim Cliff Wettig season, it had our star recruit James Ratiff there along with Jeff Lamp and Magic Johnson.
 
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