All things STOCKS

[05_never_again]

Poring the cash into AI. I personally think it is worthy. But, could be another dot.com bust...?

Apple is going to be an interesting tale. Think they are on-deck for this afternoon/tomorrow.

Holding AAPL. I think the guidance is going to be super important; good news about early iPhone 17 sales could be fully priced in. The stock is up almost 20% since it was released.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Holding AAPL. I think the guidance is going to be super important; good news about early iPhone 17 sales could be fully priced in. The stock is up almost 20% since it was released.

Woo Woo! Hope that report lifts the entire market tomorrow. Quite amazing by Tim Cook and crew.

 

[05_never_again]

Woo Woo! Hope that report lifts the entire market tomorrow. Quite amazing by Tim Cook and crew.

AMZN too

Cook apparently is just crowing on the conference call. That was quite the shakeout when the numbers were first released. The stock is currently up about 8.5% since 4:30 lmao

 

[Jax_Vol]

AMZN too

Cook apparently is just crowing on the conference call. That was quite the shakeout when the numbers were first released. The stock is currently up about 8.5% since 4:30 lmao

Go Amazon! That layoff announcement threw me off on them.

Yes, AAPL hitting high gear heading into the holidays. Even Steve Jobs would have approved....maybe

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

What are your thoughts on it? Did you do anything?

I watched it into the early afternoon. Shares kept inching up so I didn’t make a move on it. My usual strategy is to sell near term cash reserved puts with a limit order well above the current contract price INSTEAD of buying the underlying shares outright. So the price of the option kept drifting away from my target.

Karen Finerman was on CNBC trashing CMG (after selling). I think that shares have a strong possibility of falling back to today’s lows so I’m keeping it on my radar. I’ll probably jump on it Friday if shares get back to last night’s extended hours lows.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Are they currently in or out with the under age 30 crowd?

Would a college kid take a first date there?

I personally still like them.

But that business is so crazy trendy.

I love the food but I haven’t been in one for several years (I’m about midway between two stores). I think that these types of restaurants have gotten too pricey - especially with the tip jar, a burrito is pushing $20. Probably $25 with chips and a drink.

 

[Jax_Vol]

I love the food but I haven’t been in one for several years (I’m about midway between two stores). I think that these types of restaurants have gotten too pricey - especially with the tip jar, a burrito is pushing $20. Probably $25 with chips and a drink.

Last time I went, think it was $33ish for two burritos, chips, guac, no drinks.

Crazy how much it increased over the last ten years.

But, yeah...I like their food.

As someone else mentioned, the competition went bonkers in that category and the various new chicken sandwiches / strips businesses.

The Raising Cane's story is a good example.

 

[walkenvol]

I think META is mostly an overreaction by people that don't understand their huge tax provision this quarter. It could be partly due to their large capex, but I think that's more of a minor player.

I thought the pull back was being blamed on META’s announcement that they were going to spend a few $billion more on AI than they had previously planned? Oddly, NVDA and AVGO pulled back 2-3%.

 

[BigOrangeMojo]

That's the thing. The tax stuff isn't even bad news.

They had deferred tax assets on their balance sheet. These are book/tax differences that result in decreases in their tax expense in future years. Deferred tax assets are measured at the current tax rates in effect for future years. So, when the One Big Beautiful Bill made the lower corporate income tax rates permanent, the company now measures their deferred tax assets using the new lower federal income tax rate. That results in a lower amount of calculated deferred tax assets. So the amount of the deferred tax assets on the balance sheet decrease, and the other side of the entry is an increase in tax expense.

However, there is NO cash impact. It is just a book entry, and it is due to the fact that lower federal income tax rates in the future (than the rates that were in effect in the tax laws before the OBBB) will result in lower federal income taxes paid in the future - a good thing.

Want to clarify one item here (It doesn't change your main point that this is a nothing burger)

OBBBA did not make corporate rates permanent. The 21% rate was already permanent with TCJA. What happened here was META had deferred tax assets set up for Corp AMT (From IRA) and research expenses they previously had to capitalize under section 174. OBBBA now allows companies to expense domestic research expenses and to deduct previously capitalized research costs. Since the tax META ultimately pays is based on the 15% CAMT calculation and not the 21% rate, the DTAs are going to be largely worthless...

Political spin: Big believer in allowing companies to deduct reseearch expenses and think that is good tax policy. TCJA was drafted really poorly causing capitalization issue and OBBBA fixes that. Give Rs props for fixing that bad policy. However, OBBBA did not make any adjustments to the CAMT calculation as a result of OBBBA's law changes, which caused META's issues. This was an oversight noted and commented on but ultimately ignored by Congress.

 

[Jax_Vol]

I'm calling LHX and CDP both as buys.

Also thinking it might be a good time to do the UVXY deal for a few hours

If you want to grab at the falling knife, META seems to be an over-reaction down 12%. Disclaimer: Don't really follow META

AAPL is puzzling

CDP rocking upwards for a tiny company.

META still searching for bottom.

UVXY about to pop up for couple of hours imho.

Proud of good ole AMZN!

 

[DinkinFlicka]

I like to hedge bets on small caps during earnings weeks.

SOUN's my pick for next week. They're so close to profitability after 20 years. Lots of great partnerships and deals this year.

Hoping it knocks it out of the park next week.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I like to hedge bets on small caps during earnings weeks.

SOUN's my pick for next week. They're so close to profitability after 20 years. Lots of great partnerships and deals this year.

Hoping it knocks it out of the park next week.

Schwab gives SOUN an F rating and CFRA has it as a strong sell. But those might be more CYAs or SWAGs.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

Schwab gives SOUN an F rating and CFRA has it as a strong sell. But those might be more CYAs or SWAGs.

Eh, I take the Scwab ratings for small caps with a grain of salt for short term moves.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Eh, I take the Scwab ratings for small caps with a grain of salt for short term moves.

SOUN is considered a mid-cap by many. $7 billion MC.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

The 100% margin requirement and less than 40% institutional ownership are red flags. And of course the absence of profits.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Morgan-Stanley has no research available on SOUN.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Figma (FIG) releases earnings on 11/5. It’s trading near its lows right now after the IPO frenzy subsided. I’ve been working on initiating a long position/shorting cash reserved puts for the last couple of weeks.

The multiple is very high, but they are (slightly) profitable.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

Thanks for the due diligence, Thunder. Lol. I'll let you know how it goes next week.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Positive pre-market. Especially the NASDAQ futures up close to 0.25%. S and P +0.10%. DJIA neutral.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Positive pre-market. Especially the NASDAQ futures up close to 0.25%. S and P +0.10%. DJIA neutral.

Woo whoo! Thanks Thunder