Trump is bailing out Argentina. ‘America first’ is becoming 'Trump first'.

#52
#52
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#54
#54
Maybe one of these days we will get smart and just take over the Argentinian beef cattle, wine and dove hunting industry for repayment. I could deal with a tasty steak along with a little red wine while firing errant shots at a bevy of dove. Or, maybe, we stop allowing our banks to make loans to chronically delinquent and bankrupt countries.
 
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#55
#55
Vol737 said:
Maybe one of these days we will get smart and just take over the Argentinian beef cattle, wine and dove hunting industry for repayment. I could deal with a tasty steak along with a little red wine while firing errant shots at a bevy of dove. Or, maybe, we stop allowing our banks to make loans to chronically delinquent and bankrupt countries.
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I want the Falklands dangit! Dont know why, just for spite.
 
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#59
#59
McDad said:
There is no way I believe this on face value. The only way i would believe it is by seeing the evidence and proof after the fact. Show me the revenue. Projections are worthless.
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The only people that will make money are the bankers who will continue to receive their interest payments.
 
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#60
#60
McDad said:
There is no way I believe this on face value. The only way i would believe it is by seeing the evidence and proof after the fact. Show me the revenue. Projections are worthless.
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same.

I tried to figure it out. granted I don't understand these type of economic deals and what a "swap" actually means, but here is the only possibility I could come up with.

We swapped dollars for an equal value of Argentinian pesos while the peso was very low. after the swap the peso has more value, because its backed by american dollars. and that "proffit" was us having 1 million pesos worth 0.00000007, and now we have 1 million pesos worth 0.00000008. Issue is, unless we are selling those pesos some how its not actual income, and its the Rs claiming unrealized gains as profits. hence all of our incredulity.

only other thing would be interest payments, because I know this has something to do with previous loans. but if that's the case, we are just getting paid back the money we gave them, and its not profit.
 
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#61
#61
LouderVol said:
same.

I tried to figure it out. granted I don't understand these type of economic deals and what a "swap" actually means, but here is the only possibility I could come up with.

We swapped dollars for an equal value of Argentinian pesos while the peso was very low. after the swap the peso has more value, because its backed by american dollars. and that "proffit" was us having 1 million pesos worth 0.00000007, and now we have 1 million pesos worth 0.00000008. Issue is, unless we are selling those pesos some how its not actual income, and its the Rs claiming unrealized gains as profits. hence all of our incredulity.

only other thing would be interest payments, because I know this has something to do with previous loans. but if that's the case, we are just getting paid back the money we gave them, and its not profit.
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Like you, I have no established "common sense" approach to things as complex and political as international monetary policy. But what you shared seems reasonable to me.
 
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#62
#62
FLVOL_79 said:
Always an angle that Trump is working. It isn't ever for the greater good, or the general welfare of the country he is supposed to be leading. 20 Bil aint much in the grand scheme of things but again another politician is giving money away to other countries which could be used here.

Trump could have: ended homelessness in this entire country with 20 billion dollars, or opened the door to better healthcare for lower income folks, improved VA healthcare for vets (who he and republicans generally despise), helped increase cancer research at the CDC (if they hadn't fired them all), set up counseling services for all the children raped/molested by priests and youth pastors, etc. The list can go on. So many things to focus on in this country but his main focus is firing those evil federal employees who didnt vote for him, going after people/private citizens who hurt his feelings, weaponizing as much of the government as he possibly can to use against American citizens, golfing, not releasing the epstein list, and garnering favor from outside governments.
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So I despise myself?
 
#63
#63
McDad said:
Like you, I have no established "common sense" approach to things as complex and political as international monetary policy. But what you shared seems reasonable to me.
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I have no idea if that is how it actually works. I very much doubt these government swaps actually work like the stock market, but its the only thing that gets close. but even if that assumption was right, its very likely still not an actual profit with revenue we can see, as you pointed out.

so its still likely bs.
 
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#65
#65
LouderVol said:
same.

I tried to figure it out. granted I don't understand these type of economic deals and what a "swap" actually means, but here is the only possibility I could come up with.

We swapped dollars for an equal value of Argentinian pesos while the peso was very low. after the swap the peso has more value, because its backed by american dollars. and that "proffit" was us having 1 million pesos worth 0.00000007, and now we have 1 million pesos worth 0.00000008. Issue is, unless we are selling those pesos some how its not actual income, and its the Rs claiming unrealized gains as profits. hence all of our incredulity.

only other thing would be interest payments, because I know this has something to do with previous loans. but if that's the case, we are just getting paid back the money we gave them, and its not profit.
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The interest Argentina is paying on this swap (receiving USD) is "not publicly available". I think you are correct in that now that we have backed the Argentine peso and the bump from Milie's midterm election win, it has increased in value. At the end of the swap agreement, the currencies are exchanged back at the original spot rate, sometimes the prevailing rate to mitigate risk. Tells me Argentina is likely paying a much higher interest rate on our USD than we are on the Peso as part of the deal. Confessions of an Economic Hit Man is a great read. We have done some shady s*** wrt swaps and financing for third world countries only to set them up for default. Then, we swoop in and repackage the loan with new terms and interest payments...and get a land deal or access to mineral rights along the way.
 
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#66
#66
Peradox1K said:
So I despise myself?
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Ordinary Americans are propagandized to support billionaires at their own expense and against the interests of themselves, their own family, and their country. It's like Vol737 just explained. The US loans money to distressed countries (these days using tariff tax revenue, a regressive sales tax disproportionately affecting the middle and working class MAGA types), ultimately resulting in a land deal or access to mineral rights (disproportionately benefiting multinational billionaires). When there's a war, ordinary American fathers send their sons to sacrifice so billionaires can profit. It'll be no different in Venezuela.
 
#67
#67
LouderVol said:
I have no idea if that is how it actually works. I very much doubt these government swaps actually work like the stock market, but its the only thing that gets close. but even if that assumption was right, its very likely still not an actual profit with revenue we can see, as you pointed out.

so its still likely bs.
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Mojo is a bean counter, he may know the details better but what you said sounds right Louder. They dont mention either that if we went to sell all those pesos and turn em back into cash it would likely drive the exchange rate right back down right? Its all smoke and mirrors but at least Argentina seems to have a much better government lately...didnt they just re relect their Nationalist version of Trump? Leftist and Socialist bullcrap is what has ruined these Latin countries. If they keep electing candidates from the Right their economy should get stronger IMO.
 
#68
#68
jmacvols1 said:
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You rube.

Oh, sure, other countries were just lining up to bail out Argentina and immediately "make 5 billion dollars" on 20 billion plunked down. 🤣

Pssssst...

I got a nice piece of swamp land over my way for sale, Chuckles. It's "about to be rezoned" and will be worth 10-fold it's current value... but don't tell anyone!!!

I can get you in early on this once in a lifetime deal, but you gotta act fast before someone else scoops it up!!!
 
#69
#69
marcusluvsvols said:
Mojo is a bean counter, he may know the details better but what you said sounds right Louder. They dont mention either that if we went to sell all those pesos and turn em back into cash it would likely drive the exchange rate right back down right? Its all smoke and mirrors but at least Argentina seems to have a much better government lately...didnt they just re relect their Nationalist version of Trump? Leftist and Socialist bullcrap is what has ruined these Latin countries. If they keep electing candidates from the Right their economy should get stronger IMO.
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Unless we have already got out of deal, mostly BS.

The exchange rate we entered into deal with was 1 Argentina peso was worth .0006855 USD. When Argentina's peso jumped up to .00074, we would have earned just shy of an 8% return or $1.6B on a 20B investment.

Right now, exchange rate is .00069, so we would be up $131M.

If exchange rate drops to .00068, we will be down $160M
 
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#70
#70
BigOrangeMojo said:
Unless we have already got out of deal, mostly BS.

The exchange rate we entered into deal with was 1 Argentina peso was worth .0006855 USD. When Argentina's peso jumped up to .00074, we would have earned just shy of an 8% return or $1.6B on a 20B investment.

Right now, exchange rate is .00069, so we would be up $131M.

If exchange rate drops to .00068, we will be down $160M
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Thanks for this. Knew you would spread that knowledge my Vol brother. While I am not real excited about this deal...I personally feel a lot better about investing in country that has spent the last few years slashing Socialist red tape and moving towards a more Conservative and reaponsible fiscal policy. They were probably gonna end up like Venzuela if they kept the Leftist bullcrap...which its crazy for either country to be in financial trouble with their natural resources and traditionally hardworking Latino people.
 
#71
#71
BigOrangeMojo said:
Unless we have already got out of deal, mostly BS.

The exchange rate we entered into deal with was 1 Argentina peso was worth .0006855 USD. When Argentina's peso jumped up to .00074, we would have earned just shy of an 8% return or $1.6B on a 20B investment.

Right now, exchange rate is .00069, so we would be up $131M.

If exchange rate drops to .00068, we will be down $160M
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.0007..dang..the peso is worthless, not even worth the paper it is printed on worthless.
$20B would be a gazillion pesos
 
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