90% Chance to make playoffs?

#26
#26
So glad this will be more clear next year about who gets in.

Due to $ankey adding a 9th game to schedule for money, the SEC schools will have more losses and less SEC teams get in next year.

He was $tupid for agreeing to 9 games without an expanded CFP and more guarantees for a corrected process based on SOS and SOR combined.

IDIOT
 
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#28
#28
lastlapuncle said:
Oklahoma is the only game to worry about.We win ,then whoever is next will be worried about.Too late in this season to put eyes ahead for any game.Win this week and put the chips in our hands.
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I'll take 2 of what you're having. Have you seen where we are playing against UF ... we have won 2 times there since 1971! TWO. And found the most creative ways on earth to lose to some inferior teams!

And, this is not your father's Commodedoors team. They are legitimate. But, still I'll take 2 if itll help me believe.
 
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#31
#31
vol94 said:
The percentage includes the probability of others running the table or dropping a game.
I don’t see the SEC getting five.

ACC- GA Tech and Miami (assuming one wins conf championship game)

BIG 10 - Ohio state, Oregon, Indiana

Big 12- BYU or Texas tech (I will say one advances)

Notre Dame- not going to lose

G5 school

That leaves four SEC schools.

UGA, Bama, aTm, and Ole Miss

Plus need to Michigan to lose to Ohio State. If they upset Buckeyes agn, then they’ll jump into too ten imo.

The Big 12 could get two schools.
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Idk. Will be surprised if the ACC gets two in this time.
 
#33
#33
VolTom1 said:
If we win out we have a 90% chance to make the playoffs. Are they saying we would Jump Ole Miss with just one loss? I suppose ND could lose again and GT gets smashed by UGA and Miami. What am I missing here that our chances would be that high?
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I take that to mean that chaos is statistically likely. Someone will trip up.
And I do believe the ACC and big 12 are both 1 bid leagues
ACC 1
Big 12 1
Group of 6 1
Notre Dame 1
Big 10 3
That leaves 5 for SEC
 
#34
#34
We should be thinking what bowl game we are looking at. Don’t see a playoff spot this year. We will drop another game. Most people said 9-3 would be a good year for us at the start of the season. The 4 SEC teams will probably be Texas Aggies, Bama, Ga. Ole Miss. If Vandy beats Texas and us on the road they might sneak in, boy what a story that would be. If so, Clark Lea could name his salary for an open position.
 
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#35
#35
Orangeblooded615 said:
We flip with Vandy. Honestly pretty exciting the final game of the season might come down to the last playoff spot for us both
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I think Vandy will lose vs Texas, TX is due a good game, a lot of bad breaks for Texas last few weeks. That should be a good game.
 
#36
#36
GraingerMater23 said:
I take that to mean that chaos is statistically likely. Someone will trip up.
And I do believe the ACC and big 12 are both 1 bid leagues
ACC 1
Big 12 1
Group of 6 1
Notre Dame 1
Big 10 3
That leaves 5 for SEC
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Look for ACC to get 2 if GTs only loss is to UGA. GT & Miami
 
#38
#38
I think what this stat means is that the ESPN statisticians ran their model thousands of times, using the % chance of victory they've already assigned to every game involving all teams. But setting the pre-condition that the Vols end up 10-2. And 90% of the time, all the other potential playoff teams stacked up so that the Vols made the CFP.

Now, some of those hundreds and hundreds of results, Ole Miss loses two more games. How often? We don't know. In other results, Notre Dame loses again and goes to 9-3. How often? We don't know. There are probably a lot of options where Vandy loses at least two more games. Options where Georgia Tech crashes and burns. Maybe once in a while Ohio State loses to both Penn State and Michigan, and drops below us. Or Indiana comes completely apart in some of them. Some probably have Oregon losing once or twice more.

And on and on.

Point is, it's not about any one thing happening. It's about a wide variety of ways the Vols could get into the playoffs, as long as we take care of business and end the year 10-2.

Should be fun. I'm looking forward to it.

Go Vols!
 
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#39
#39
vol94 said:
The percentage includes the probability of others running the table or dropping a game.
I don’t see the SEC getting five.

ACC- GA Tech and Miami (assuming one wins conf championship game)

BIG 10 - Ohio state, Oregon, Indiana

Big 12- BYU or Texas tech (I will say one advances)

Notre Dame- not going to lose

G5 school

That leaves four SEC schools.

UGA, Bama, aTm, and Ole Miss

Plus need to Michigan to lose to Ohio State. If they upset Buckeyes agn, then they’ll jump into too ten imo.

The Big 12 could get two schools.
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I think if Miami and Texas Tech dont win their conference, they wont get in. Assuming we win out, they both would have 2 losses and im not sure how u can say those losses are better than losses to UGA in OT and @ Bama.
 
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#40
#40
volbound1700 said:
I think SEC gets 5 teams this year mostly due to the B1G being down versus 2024 (thanks primarily to the Penn State collapse). ACC and Big12 don't look as strong this year and I think the automatic qualifier for being in the CCG (which benefited SMU) is gone.

A solid G5 candidate has developed as well (like Boise State last year). USF and Memphis have both lost.
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There was never any such thing as an automatic qualifier if you make your conference championship game. I don't know where you got that info. Only the conference champion was guaranteed a bid. SMU got in as an at-large last year.

The ACC and Big 12 could still get two teams in, but no more. In the ACC, a one-loss Miami and one-loss Georgia Tech would both get in if Tech goes 12-0 and loses the title game. In the Big 12, undefeated BYU and one-loss teams in Texas Tech, Cincinnati, and Houston still have a shot, which would mean one of the latter beating a 12-0 BYU team in the title game to get two one-loss teams in.

The SEC has a great shot at 5 teams this year - and even a long shot at 6 - but it would mean no multiple bids from the Big 12 or ACC and also Notre Dame being left out.
 
#43
#43
Just win out and you’re in is what I think 100%. We will have a better idea a week from now when the official rankings come me out, but I think 90% winning out is actually low balling it.

You guys lost to Bama and GA, and the GA loss has to be the best loss of the last 5 years at this point, and not just bc GA is a very good team but primarily bc the Vols should have won! The committee is supposed to recognize such things, that’s one of the reasons we don’t use advanced algorithms or AI. I wouldn’t doubt that with AI advancements, it might be used someday.
 
#45
#45
901 Orange said:
I think if Miami and Texas Tech dont win their conference, they wont get in. Assuming we win out, they both would have 2 losses and im not sure how u can say those losses are better than losses to UGA in OT and @ Bama.
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I think it goes on how all the above are playing, key injuries, and deficiencies. TN may have better losses but our Defenee is poor, ranking towards the bottom.


At this point it’s all speculative with TN having to win three tough games.
 
#47
#47
As the SEC teams resumes strengthen m, they should overtake Norte Dame. What good wins will Notre Dame have? Maybe USC at home, but will that still be a top 25 team at the end of the year? The committee should punish them for not playing in a conference and send a message. Afterall they claim to value conference championships. So why reward a team that can't even make one?
 
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#48
#48
vol94 said:
I think it goes on how all the above are playing, key injuries, and deficiencies. TN may have better losses but our Defenee is poor, ranking towards the bottom.


At this point it’s all speculative with TN having to win three tough games.
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Having a poor defense wont keep you out the playoffs. We had a poor offense and made the playoffs last year. It will come down to records and when u lose. Miami & Texas Tech control their own destiny today. If they lose late in the year, they will be in the same boat as us. If we only lose in OT to UGA & @ Bama we are likely to get in.
 
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#50
#50
VolTom1 said:
If we win out we have a 90% chance to make the playoffs. Are they saying we would Jump Ole Miss with just one loss? I suppose ND could lose again and GT gets smashed by UGA and Miami. What am I missing here that our chances would be that high?
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Look to see what teams are in that prediction with ole miss running the table but not going to sec champ. We are out
 
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