All things STOCKS

[Jax_Vol]

IMO, he was distracted even before he started to play political commentator.

Good point.

Elon =

 

[Jax_Vol]

The government regulators control the AV timelines. Hopefully we’ll have fully autonomous vehicles within 5 or 10 years.

Google/Waymo seems to be ahead of the others right now.

Yes, that is the one I was thinking about.

Way way way ahead of Elon.

Talked to a family who used one in San Fran. They loved the experience.

 

[05_never_again]

Good point.

Elon =

Elon is both the biggest strength and biggest weakness of that company.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Elon is both the biggest strength and biggest weakness of that company.

You are right! Tesla going from down -5% to +5% in one session here. Lol

 

[Jax_Vol]

Wow....Intel beat.

Did not see that coming at all.

Go USA!

 

[kiddiedoc]

Good point.

Elon =

My TSLA shares have averaged +84% since my first position in 2022. I'll take it.

 

[Jax_Vol]

My TSLA shares have averaged +84% since my first position in 2022. I'll take it.

That is awesome.

I had just a few from around that same era. Couldn't stomach the roller coaster ride.

 

[Jax_Vol]

Hey hey hey...clear out more room in the bank account.

Looks like we are heading to the moon today.

 

[DinkinFlicka]

The government regulators control the AV timelines. Hopefully we’ll have fully autonomous vehicles within 5 or 10 years.

Google/Waymo seems to be ahead of the others right now.

I'm not sure the tech is there yet, from a standpoint of cost effectiveness. Your units are at least 200k each (the sensor suites alone are around the cost of an economy vehicle), then the maintenence and constant software/firmware/hardware updates, and THEN you factor in damage from other motorists.

Offsetting these costs alone (we're leaving a ton of stuff out here) with an average ride cost of 20 bucks... i just can't see it. Anyone have any insight? Is this just a proof of potential concept?

I didnt consider my last point until my latest trip to Austin. I saw a Waymo in the aftermath of being t boned by a driver in an old beat up f150. A wreck like that sets the company back six figures. That's a big recurring potential loss per vehicle when you put these things in an environment at the mercy of human error.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

I'm not sure the tech is there yet, from a standpoint of cost effectiveness. Your units are at least 200k each (the sensor suites alone are around the cost of an economy vehicle), then the maintenence and constant software/firmware/hardware updates, and THEN you factor in damage from other motorists.

Offsetting these costs alone (we're leaving a ton of stuff out here) with an average ride cost of 20 bucks... i just can't see it. Anyone have any insight? Is this just a proof of potential concept?

I didnt consider my last point until my latest trip to Austin. I saw a Waymo in the aftermath of being t boned by a driver in an old beat up f150. A wreck like that sets the company back six figures. That's a big recurring potential loss per vehicle when you put these things in an environment at the mercy of human error.

I’m hoping more so for privately owned AVs.

I think that the robo taxi will move along much more quickly as the well funded, tech giants are currently buying in. Cost per unit isn’t really relevant during the developmental phase. There’s a case for significant savings on insurance and maintenance once the robo taxis progress further. Ultimately even the threat of Bubba in his big ass truck can be reduced in time. Robos will be highly connected and erratic drivers will be identified quickly which could reduce the threat.

I think that the privately owned AVs could have a significant customer base in aging Boomers that want to retain their independence. And eventually the Millenials (the largest demographic) and the Gen Z group close behind (2nd largest demographics). The oldest Millenials will start reaching retirement age in 15-25 years.

Robo will be great for shuttling old fellers around town for shopping, entertainment, and appointments. But privately owned AVs will be in demand for those that want to travel frequently outside of their immediate areas. People probably aren’t taking a lot of Uber and Lyft rides to Cades Cove.

Those that own their own AVs could contract to put them in the fleet of robos and that could be appealing to younger owners. Instead of investing in in vehicles that are parked for 95% plus of the time, the could be on the road earning income as side hustles.

 

[ndubvols]

I’m hoping more so for privately owned AVs.

I think that the robo taxi will move along much more quickly as the well funded, tech giants are currently buying in. Cost per unit isn’t really relevant during the developmental phase. There’s a case for significant savings on insurance and maintenance once the robo taxis progress further. Ultimately even the threat of Bubba in his big ass truck can be reduced in time. Robos will be highly connected and erratic drivers will be identified quickly which could reduce the threat.

I think that the privately owned AVs could have a significant customer base in aging Boomers that want to retain their independence. And eventually the Millenials (the largest demographic) and the Gen Z group close behind (2nd largest demographics). The oldest Millenials will start reaching retirement age in 15-25 years.

Robo will be great for shuttling old fellers around town for shopping, entertainment, and appointments. But privately owned AVs will be in demand for those that want to travel frequently outside of their immediate areas. People probably aren’t taking a lot of Uber and Lyft rides to Cades Cove.

Those that own their own AVs could contract to put them in the fleet of robos and that could be appealing to younger owners. Instead of investing in in vehicles that are parked for 95% plus of tge time, the could be on the road earning income as side hustles.

My biggest concern with AV is just the liability perspective. There’s going to be massive lawsuits anytime one of these are involved in a crash which is inevitably going to happen whether it’s the vehicle’s fault or not.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

There are a lot of potential players. EV manufacturers like Tesla. Other large vehicle manufacturers. Uber and Lyft. Car rental companies (Alamo, Avis, Budget, Dollar, Enterprise, Hertz, National, Thrifty). Other tech giants besides TSLA (AMZN, GOOGL, AAPL, NVDA, INTC, MSFT, TSM, AMD, AVGO, etc). Even Big Oil (energy) like XOM, BP, CVX) and the energy producers.

Just look at the number of dumb ICE cars on the road right now. It’s a huge element of the economy. A **** ton of drivers are just looking for the utility and not the fancy cars to impress others.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

My biggest concern with AV is just the liability perspective. There’s going to be massive lawsuits anytime one of these are involved in a crash which is inevitably going to happen whether it’s the vehicle’s fault or not.

Yes. That is a short term obstacle that can derail the development. In the long run, AVs would be much safer than human driven vehicles. And traffic management would be far better. The predatory lawyers will be an obstacle, but in terms of PR and not actual functionality.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

This being the investment topic in the forum, I think that it will be difficult to monetize much quickly. Maybe TSLA, NVDA, UBER, GOOGL, auto insurers, etc. A few names could be put into minor children and grandchildren’s retirement accounts and could easily appreciate 1,000x or even 10,000 times. Those with the 10-20 year time frames would do very well if they can make 18-20% per year.