ESPN’s “playoff predictor”

#1
Volpatine

Volpatine

Once more the Vols will rule the galaxy
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Apr 17, 2025
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#1
Being the sicko I am I decided to take a deep dive into ESPN’s playoff predictor and here’s what I found:

SEC programs’ current “percentage” to make the playoffs:

Alabama 90%

A&M 84%

Georgia 82%

Ole Miss 49%

Oklahoma 43%

Texas 39%

Vandy 34%

Mizzou 32%

Tennessee 18%

LSU 15%

Now let’s compare that to ESPN’s FPI per the matchups they consider “key” games. Each team has 3 matchups listed. Next to their name I put the number of games they are favored in out of 3:

Alabama 3/3

A&M 1/3

Georgia 3/3

Ole Miss 2/3

Oklahoma 1/3

Texas 2/3

Vandy 1/3

Mizzou 1/3

Tennessee 3/3

LSU 0/3

If the FPI holds this is the percentage of likelihood of each team to make the playoff:

Alabama <99%

A&M <99%

Georgia <99%

Ole Miss 65%

Oklahoma 80%

Texas 72%

Vandy 26%

Mizzou 14%

Tennessee 90%

LSU >1%

*Interesting to note that the Vols are the 4th team in this model*

Each team above and their end of year record according to ESPN’s FPI:

Alabama 11-1

A&M 10-2

Georgia 11-1

Ole Miss 10-2

Oklahoma 9-3

Texas 9-3

Vandy 9-3

Mizzou 9-3

Tennessee 10-2

LSU 6-6

I certainly don’t look at the playoff predictor as gospel. However, I do find it interesting that we are thought of so poorly but when you look at the projections closer we are in great shape record wise. Not sure our SoS is strong enough to get in at 10-2 if we are placed side by side with other 10-2 teams particularly within the SEC, but I’d love to have a chance to make our pitch with that record.
 
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#4
#4
Funny we keep talking about playoffs with this team. The only way I will entertain it is after we beat OU and UF. Then as we go in to that Vandy game, assess which other teams are competing for the same spot as we are and determine then if we are in with a win. But we have a loooong ways to go to get to that point. I'm just not convinced we beat both OU and UF to even get us to the point of a "win and in" game against Vandy.
 
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#9
#9
BigOrangeFanatic said:
Funny we keep talking about playoffs with this team. The only way I will entertain it is after we beat OU and UF. Then as we go in to that Vandy game, assess which other teams are competing for the same spot as we are and determine then if we are in with a win. But we have a loooong ways to go to get to that point. I'm just not convinced we beat both OU and UF to even get us to the point of a "win and in" game against Vandy.
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Agree. Let see if we improve vs. Ky.

The good news is Bama didn’t outplay us. We had too many penalties, dropped passes, poor clock mgmt and play call before half, and poor tackling. We failed to play complimentary football.

Our body language was subpar too as I think our D is doubting themselves to get off the field (91and 99 yard drives will kill confidence).

But, we have the talent this yr to win every game. That’s a big difference than past yrs and the other team having superior talent.
 
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#11
#11
Looks like, we win out and we're in. GBO!!! It would be interesting to get another shot at GA or AL, on a NEUTRAL field. I don't think OH ST could beat AL in Tuscaloosa. And I ain't gonna bixxh about the refereeing. That's just a given down there. For generations. And we definitely don't need a hangover game this weekend. Not to say Texas is all this and that, but the cats did take them to overtime.
 
#12
#12
There's another thread on this as well...it will become clearer in a few weeks. We need to win out and then we need some other folks to lose...
 
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#13
#13
Volpatine said:
Being the sicko I am I decided to take a deep dive into ESPN’s playoff predictor and here’s what I found:

SEC programs’ current “percentage” to make the playoffs:

Alabama 90%

A&M 84%

Georgia 82%

Ole Miss 49%

Oklahoma 43%

Texas 39%

Vandy 34%

Mizzou 32%

Tennessee 18%

LSU 15%

Now let’s compare that to ESPN’s FPI per the matchups they consider “key” games. Each team has 3 matchups listed. Next to their name I put the number of games they are favored in out of 3:

Alabama 3/3

A&M 1/3

Georgia 3/3

Ole Miss 2/3

Oklahoma 1/3

Texas 2/3

Vandy 1/3

Mizzou 1/3

Tennessee 3/3

LSU 0/3

If the FPI holds this is the percentage of likelihood of each team to make the playoff:

Alabama <99%

A&M <99%

Georgia <99%

Ole Miss 65%

Oklahoma 80%

Texas 72%

Vandy 26%

Mizzou 14%

Tennessee 90%

LSU >1%

*Interesting to note that the Vols are the 4th team in this model*

Each team above and their end of year record according to ESPN’s FPI:

Alabama 11-1

A&M 10-2

Georgia 11-1

Ole Miss 10-2

Oklahoma 9-3

Texas 9-3

Vandy 9-3

Mizzou 9-3

Tennessee 10-2

LSU 6-6

I certainly don’t look at the playoff predictor as gospel. However, I do find it interesting that we are thought of so poorly but when you look at the projections closer we are in great shape record wise. Not sure our SoS is strong enough to get in at 10-2 if we are placed side by side with other 10-2 teams particularly within the SEC, but I’d love to have a chance to make our pitch with that record.
Click to expand...
Yes this bothers me as a Tennessee fan. I always think of UT on positive. This tells me that the eye test to the pundits the Tennessee name is just not up there. We are an afterthought to some sportswriters. I think if they look at it analytically we would be higher but its sad that we are considered not as good as I think we are by the drive by eye test sports media.
 
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#14
#14
KTrain said:
Yes this bothers me as a Tennessee fan. I always think of UT on positive. This tells me that the eye test to the pundits the Tennessee name is just not up there. We are an afterthought to some sportswriters. I think if they look at it analytically we would be higher but its sad that we are considered not as good as I think we are by the drive by eye test sports media.
Click to expand...
They've been down too long. Everyone has up and down cycles. Handled the Fulmer thing all wrong and the hires after that were for the most part bad hires. Lane was potentially the best hire til he screwed them to go to USC. Heupel has them back to at least competing. He's been the best hire we've had since the Fulmer mess started.
 
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#15
#15
Volpatine said:
Being the sicko I am I decided to take a deep dive into ESPN’s playoff predictor and here’s what I found:

SEC programs’ current “percentage” to make the playoffs:

Alabama 90%

A&M 84%

Georgia 82%

Ole Miss 49%

Oklahoma 43%

Texas 39%

Vandy 34%

Mizzou 32%

Tennessee 18%

LSU 15%

Now let’s compare that to ESPN’s FPI per the matchups they consider “key” games. Each team has 3 matchups listed. Next to their name I put the number of games they are favored in out of 3:

Alabama 3/3

A&M 1/3

Georgia 3/3

Ole Miss 2/3

Oklahoma 1/3

Texas 2/3

Vandy 1/3

Mizzou 1/3

Tennessee 3/3

LSU 0/3

If the FPI holds this is the percentage of likelihood of each team to make the playoff:

Alabama <99%

A&M <99%

Georgia <99%

Ole Miss 65%

Oklahoma 80%

Texas 72%

Vandy 26%

Mizzou 14%

Tennessee 90%

LSU >1%

*Interesting to note that the Vols are the 4th team in this model*

Each team above and their end of year record according to ESPN’s FPI:

Alabama 11-1

A&M 10-2

Georgia 11-1

Ole Miss 10-2

Oklahoma 9-3

Texas 9-3

Vandy 9-3

Mizzou 9-3

Tennessee 10-2

LSU 6-6

I certainly don’t look at the playoff predictor as gospel. However, I do find it interesting that we are thought of so poorly but when you look at the projections closer we are in great shape record wise. Not sure our SoS is strong enough to get in at 10-2 if we are placed side by side with other 10-2 teams particularly within the SEC, but I’d love to have a chance to make our pitch with that record.
Click to expand...
FPI does not have us 10-2. We are just favored in every game. That’s why there’s a gap between our playoff percentage if we make 10-2 and what our playoff percentage is today.
 
#16
#16
KTrain said:
Yes this bothers me as a Tennessee fan. I always think of UT on positive. This tells me that the eye test to the pundits the Tennessee name is just not up there. We are an afterthought to some sportswriters. I think if they look at it analytically we would be higher but its sad that we are considered not as good as I think we are by the drive by eye test sports media.
Click to expand...
Outside of Syracuse and Georgia, which were both early season games, we haven’t passed the eye test. We looked terrible vs Bama and squeaked by two unranked teams with a combined record of 6-8.
 
#17
#17
VolCalls said:
Outside of Syracuse and Georgia, which were both early season games, we haven’t passed the eye test. We looked terrible vs Bama and squeaked by two unranked teams with a combined record of 6-8.
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Unfortunately our win against Syracuse won’t look like much by the end of the season. But the were 3-1 before they lost their QB and were a pretty decent team…maybe not 10-2 like they were in 2024 but still a quality team.
 
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#18
#18
vol94 said:
Agree. Let see if we improve vs. Ky.

The good news is Bama didn’t outplay us. We had too many penalties, dropped passes, poor clock mgmt and play call before half, and poor tackling. We failed to play complimentary football.

Our body language was subpar too as I think our D is doubting themselves to get off the field (91and 99 yard drives will kill confidence).

But, we have the talent this yr to win every game. That’s a big difference than past yrs and the other team having superior talent.
Click to expand...
See and that's a big problem. We are not a sound football team. We really havent been since JH has been here. We are always heavily penalized, and when we lose big games its often due to us beating ourselves, which is not good because those things come from the top down. Hes never been able to clean up the areas that really need it the most.
 
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#20
#20
vol94 said:
Agree. Let see if we improve vs. Ky.

The good news is Bama didn’t outplay us. We had too many penalties, dropped passes, poor clock mgmt and play call before half, and poor tackling. We failed to play complimentary football.

Our body language was subpar too as I think our D is doubting themselves to get off the field (91and 99 yard drives will kill confidence).

But, we have the talent this yr to win every game. That’s a big difference than past yrs and the other team having superior talent.
Click to expand...
How can you say Bama didn’t outplay us and then say penalties, dropped passes, and tackling were big issues? That’s part of playing.

We were badly outcoached but also got outplayed.
 
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#22
#22
KTrain said:
Yes this bothers me as a Tennessee fan. I always think of UT on positive. This tells me that the eye test to the pundits the Tennessee name is just not up there. We are an afterthought to some sportswriters. I think if they look at it analytically we would be higher but its sad that we are considered not as good as I think we are by the drive by eye test sports media.
Click to expand...
We are not getting snubbed. We’ve played two good teams and gotten beat by both.
 
#23
#23
BigOrangeFanatic said:
See and that's a big problem. We are not a sound football team. We really havent been since JH has been here. We are always heavily penalized, and when we lose big games it’s often due to us beating ourselves, which is not good because those things come from the top down. Hes never been able to clean up the areas that really need it the most.
Click to expand...
Fulmer was the same way. Cutcliffe was the guy that kept the little things in check. Randy Sanders couldn’t do it and that was evident immediately after he took over as OC. Team immediately got sharper on Cutcliffe’s return and it wasn’t just due to improved play calling. False starts, WR drops, and hilarious INT throws all magically became infrequent.

Heupel needs a guy like that. Maybe Golesh was better in that department. Whatever we are doing now certainly isn’t working.
 
#24
#24
BigOrangeFanatic said:
Funny we keep talking about playoffs with this team. The only way I will entertain it is after we beat OU and UF. Then as we go in to that Vandy game, assess which other teams are competing for the same spot as we are and determine then if we are in with a win. But we have a loooong ways to go to get to that point. I'm just not convinced we beat both OU and UF to even get us to the point of a "win and in" game against Vandy.
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If we somehow make it in, we would probably get boat raced again. Doubt we get a home game.
 
#25
#25
LegionnaireOfTheMiserable said:
How can you say Bama didn’t outplay us and then say penalties, dropped passes, and tackling were big issues? That’s part of playing.

We were badly outcoached but also got outplayed.
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Maybe I should have reworded. My point is we had so many self-inflicted errors not caused by Bama. A false start or lining up incorrectly is not caused by the opponent. Poor tacking is a fundamental, though maybe the Bama skilled players were hard to tackle.

Out coached- I agree. And , that play call and horrible clock mgmt wasn’t a reaction to Bama D. Heup has had issues with clock mgmt from day one.
 
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