Tennessee's biggest problem is SoS

#51
#51
UTFranklinVol said:
let's just make the assumption that Tennessee wins out the rest of the year and finishes 10-2. not only do we need a lot of help from other teams but we also have this issue of strength of schedule to contend with.

So far our best win of the year is on the road against 4-3 Mississippi State. All the other wins come against teams with losing and 2 fired head coaches (and we aren't even done playing teams that fired their coach).

And projecting ahead:
1. Kentucky - at most has 2 wins left on its schedule maybe 3 by a miracle and will have a losing record

2. Oklahoma - unless Oklahoma gets totally embarrassed on their home field by the fighting Lane Kiffins, they will be ranked when we play them, however they still have to play Ole Miss, Tennessee, Bama, Missouri and LSU who are all currently top 25 teams. Theres an extremely high probability that Oklahoma finishes the year unranked.

3. New Mexico State - will probably have a winning record but will do nothing for SoS

4. Florida - fired HC, will end the year with a losing record in all likelihood.

5. Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt, yes Vanderbilt may be the ONLY ranked team with a winning record that the Vols beat in 2025 by the end of the season

If this ends up being the case (The Vols actually have to win all their games first) this may be our biggest enemy that prevents us from making the CFP. We would have lost the two games that would have given us any leverage at all with the selection committee.
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It is their own fault for continuously playing a weak out of conference schedule. I have been saying for years that fans are tired of being charged premium prices for OVC and Sunbelt conference games. The AD just does not get it. There is much better entertainment at home on the big screen now.
 
#54
#54
UTFranklinVol said:
let's just make the assumption that Tennessee wins out the rest of the year and finishes 10-2. not only do we need a lot of help from other teams but we also have this issue of strength of schedule to contend with.

So far our best win of the year is on the road against 4-3 Mississippi State. All the other wins come against teams with losing and 2 fired head coaches (and we aren't even done playing teams that fired their coach).

And projecting ahead:
1. Kentucky - at most has 2 wins left on its schedule maybe 3 by a miracle and will have a losing record

2. Oklahoma - unless Oklahoma gets totally embarrassed on their home field by the fighting Lane Kiffins, they will be ranked when we play them, however they still have to play Ole Miss, Tennessee, Bama, Missouri and LSU who are all currently top 25 teams. Theres an extremely high probability that Oklahoma finishes the year unranked.

3. New Mexico State - will probably have a winning record but will do nothing for SoS

4. Florida - fired HC, will end the year with a losing record in all likelihood.

5. Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt, yes Vanderbilt may be the ONLY ranked team with a winning record that the Vols beat in 2025 by the end of the season

If this ends up being the case (The Vols actually have to win all their games first) this may be our biggest enemy that prevents us from making the CFP. We would have lost the two games that would have given us any leverage at all with the selection committee.
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I don’t think the average fan realizes how easy the schedule is this year and last year. We’ll be 8-4 the next three years.
 
#56
#56
rdk4121 said:
LSU will be a 4 loss team, that's not better than a win over Vandy or Oklahoma. As you recall, Vandy literally beat LSU last weekend. There's 11 spots up for grabs. Big 10 is getting 3, ACC is probably only getting 1-2 (including ND)now thanks to Miami screwing up, Big 12 is getting at most 2, but probably 1 again thanks to Texas tech losing.

That's 5-7 at most, which leaves the SEC with 4-6. Bare minimum 4 this year just with the war things have shook out. Assuming we win out, it's between us, Ole Miss, and Missouri. Missouri will lose at least 1 more, probably 2. So we just need Ole Miss to lose to Oklahoma.

The biggest point is big 10 only getting 3. They literally don't have anyone else that can even get in at this point. I guess Illinois has an outside shot, but getting beat by 50+ points means they certainly don't be ahead of us.
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The SEC will not get more than 4 spots. And those go to UGA, Bama, aTm, and probably Ole Miss. UT should not be ranked above any of those teams.
 
#57
#57
This should be one of those old Jim Mora statements, "PLAYOFFS? PLAY OFFS?" There is zero chance the Vols make the playoffs. They will be lucky to finish 8-4 (losses to OK and FL). If they played this week, they also lose to Vandy. The Vols are a good, not great team. I will be very happy with 8-4 and a Bowl win. It beats what we saw for almost 20 years, before JH.
 
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#58
#58
onevol74 said:
The SEC will not get more than 4 spots. And those go to UGA, Bama, aTm, and probably Ole Miss. UT should not be ranked above any of those teams.
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Who else is getting them then? There's no one outside of the top 3 in the big 10. Big 12 ruined their shot at 2 teams Texas tech losing. ACC might get 2, but Georgia tech can't lose to anyone other than Georgia. I think we get 5.

SEC - 5
Big 10- 3
Big 12 - 1
ACC - 1
ND and Group of 5.

Frankly there's no reason we shouldn't be ahead of Notre Dame if we're both 10-2. They'll have at most 1 ranked win if USC is even ranked. Outside of that, nothing. We'll have at least 2 if we win out.
 
#59
#59
Cartervol said:
Something they can't control so why worry about it. What they can control is not killing themselves with dumb penalties and dumb decisions.. If they finish 10-2 then build Heupel a statue..
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One thing they can control is preparing the defense to play ball.Imo the coaches don't have them ready for sec football.This needs to change sooner rather than later.They are simply not ready for prime time.
 
#60
#60
Volsfannn said:
Lol. What's fear crap about facts? You're confident this team will go to the swamp and accomplish something that hasn't been done in what? 23 years? Who's playing better football right now? UT or Vandy?
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Yes I am confident we go into the Swamp and win. Us or Vandy? We are playing better. You can disagree all you want but we are a missed FG from beating a top 10 UGA. Has Vandy looked good? Sure. Have they faced an offense even remotely as good as ours? No. And while Pavia is good. Green at Arky is better and we beat them.

Cower in the corner if you like. You look weak.
 
#62
#62
WaywardVol said:
I don’t think the average fan realizes how easy the schedule is this year and last year. We’ll be 8-4 the next three years.
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I actually think next year's schedule plays in our favor big time

Heupel hasn't been beaten at home by anyone not named Georgia in 4 years now (so far) and we have some tough games but they are all at home. our road schedule is really favorable and the road games are where Huepel and Tennessee choke every year.

I expect next year to be. good year for Tennessee.

2027 on the other hand may be a disaster.
 
#64
#64
rdk4121 said:
Who else is getting them then? There's no one outside of the top 3 in the big 10. Big 12 ruined their shot at 2 teams Texas tech losing. ACC might get 2, but Georgia tech can't lose to anyone other than Georgia. I think we get 5.

SEC - 5
Big 10- 3
Big 12 - 1
ACC - 1
ND and Group of 5.

Frankly there's no reason we shouldn't be ahead of Notre Dame if we're both 10-2. They'll have at most 1 ranked win if USC is even ranked. Outside of that, nothing. We'll have at least 2 if we win out.
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everyone saying the ACC is only getting 1 team is out of their damn minds.

Miami, Georgia tech and Virginia all have legit shots and Louisville isn't out yet although I don't expect them to make it.
 
#65
#65
onevol74 said:
It is their own fault for continuously playing a weak out of conference schedule. I have been saying for years that fans are tired of being charged premium prices for OVC and Sunbelt conference games. The AD just does not get it. There is much better entertainment at home on the big screen now.
Click to expand...
I disagree. all we have to do is beat Bama and Georgia. our OOC games don't matter.
 
#66
#66
UTFranklinVol said:
let's just make the assumption that Tennessee wins out the rest of the year and finishes 10-2. not only do we need a lot of help from other teams but we also have this issue of strength of schedule to contend with.

So far our best win of the year is on the road against 4-3 Mississippi State. All the other wins come against teams with losing and 2 fired head coaches (and we aren't even done playing teams that fired their coach).

And projecting ahead:
1. Kentucky - at most has 2 wins left on its schedule maybe 3 by a miracle and will have a losing record

2. Oklahoma - unless Oklahoma gets totally embarrassed on their home field by the fighting Lane Kiffins, they will be ranked when we play them, however they still have to play Ole Miss, Tennessee, Bama, Missouri and LSU who are all currently top 25 teams. Theres an extremely high probability that Oklahoma finishes the year unranked.

3. New Mexico State - will probably have a winning record but will do nothing for SoS

4. Florida - fired HC, will end the year with a losing record in all likelihood.

5. Vanderbilt - Vanderbilt, yes Vanderbilt may be the ONLY ranked team with a winning record that the Vols beat in 2025 by the end of the season

If this ends up being the case (The Vols actually have to win all their games first) this may be our biggest enemy that prevents us from making the CFP. We would have lost the two games that would have given us any leverage at all with the selection committee.
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sighhhh no we don't

10-2 gets us in the playoffs period...you clearly haven't seen the other's schedules
 
#67
#67
onevol74 said:
It is their own fault for continuously playing a weak out of conference schedule. I have been saying for years that fans are tired of being charged premium prices for OVC and Sunbelt conference games. The AD just does not get it. There is much better entertainment at home on the big screen now.
Click to expand...
Our OOC schedule has literally been one of the best in the conference from the 1960s on
 
#68
#68
UTFranklinVol said:
everyone saying the ACC is only getting 1 team is out of their damn minds.

Miami, Georgia tech and Virginia all have legit shots and Louisville isn't out yet although I don't expect them to make it.
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They all can barely beat the bad teams in the ACC. Particularly Virginia, who will lose at least one in their bad schedule. If Georgia tech loses to Georgia and then in the ACC championship, who is their best win? A 3-4 Clemson team? Louisville might have the best shot since they at least beat Miami.
 
#73
#73
rdk4121 said:
Who else is getting them then? There's no one outside of the top 3 in the big 10. Big 12 ruined their shot at 2 teams Texas tech losing. ACC might get 2, but Georgia tech can't lose to anyone other than Georgia. I think we get 5.

SEC - 5
Big 10- 3
Big 12 - 1
ACC - 1
ND and Group of 5.

Frankly there's no reason we shouldn't be ahead of Notre Dame if we're both 10-2. They'll have at most 1 ranked win if USC is even ranked. Outside of that, nothing. We'll have at least 2 if we win out.
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I agree that we should, but we won't if us and Notre Dame finish with the same record.
 
#74
#74
bamawriter said:
What's crazy is that Tennessee's opponents have pretty brutal schedules to finish the year. One could make a good case that UGA and Bama are the most likely to continue helping UT's SOS, and UT lost both those games. UT needs some of the teams they beat to make them look better, and that seems like a big ask right now.
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Thanks. But nobody cares for your dirty Alabama opinion.
 
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#75
#75
WaywardVol said:
I don’t think the average fan realizes how easy the schedule is this year and last year. We’ll be 8-4 the next three years.
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2026 schedule
Furman
at Georgia Tech
Kennesaw State
Auburn
at South Carolina
Alabama
Kentucky
at Arkansas
Texas
at Texas A&M
LSU
at Vanderbilt

2027
Tennessee State
Georgia Tech
Western Michigan
Mississippi State
at Missouri
Florida
at Alabama
at Kentucky
Ole Miss
at Oklahoma
at Georgia
Vanderbilt

2028
West Virginia (Charlotte)
TBD
Texas A&M
at LSU
Arkansas
Alabama
at Auburn
South Carolina
at Texas
TBD
Kentucky
at Vanderbilt

except for 2027 which is a difficult road schedule, these aren't 8-4 schedules
 
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