War in Ukraine

#89,401
#89,401
BeardedVol said:
Since they are paying for them, I expect they are not bound by US limitations on what and where they can strike inside Russia with them.
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I think conditions remain. Sounds mainly like avoid Moscow.

But I think all those oil refineries are fair game.

Of note, Ukraine has purportedly already developed a long range drone with a max range of 3,000 kms. Guessing it's not being mass produced yet, if real.
 
#89,405
#89,405
MontyPython said:
About time, Trump. Huge arms purchase with LR missiles.

### Overview of the $90 Billion US-Ukraine Weapons Deal

As of September 28, 2025, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced the finalization of a major "mega deal" with the United States valued at approximately **$90 billion** for the purchase of American-made weapons. This agreement, discussed in meetings with President Donald Trump in late August and early September 2025, shifts from traditional U.S. aid donations to a purchase model financed partly by Ukraine (with European ally support) to appeal to Trump's emphasis on boosting U.S. defense industry sales. The deal includes a separate $50 billion agreement for U.S. purchases of Ukrainian-manufactured drones.

The package encompasses a wide range of advanced weaponry, with a **particular focus on long-range systems** requested by Ukrainian defense officials to counter Russian advances and protect critical infrastructure. While the full list of equipment is not yet public (technical negotiations are ongoing), it prioritizes air defense, precision strikes, and standoff capabilities. Major U.S. contractors like Lockheed Martin (for missile systems) and Raytheon (for air defense) are expected to play key roles.

### Key Long-Range Missile System in the Deal

The primary **long-range missile system** included in this $90 billion deal is the **Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS)**, a ground-launched ballistic missile with a range of up to **190 miles (300 km)**.

- **Details on ATACMS**:
- Launched from High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) or M270 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), which Ukraine already operates.
- Capable of striking deep into enemy territory for precision attacks on command centers, logistics hubs, and airfields—critical for Ukraine's needs amid escalating Russian missile barrages.
- The deal builds on prior U.S. deliveries (e.g., limited batches in 2023–2024) but scales up to thousands of units, with broader usage permissions (e.g., targeting Russian military sites beyond the border, though deep strikes on Moscow remain restricted to avoid escalation).
- Estimated cost per missile: $1–1.5 million; the package could include 1,000+ units, funded via the NATO-led Prioritized Ukraine Requirements List (PURL).

This system was explicitly highlighted in Zelenskyy's announcements as a "game-changer" for long-range strikes, with initial deliveries expected in late 2025 under the new funding mechanism.

### Other Long-Range Capabilities in the Deal

The agreement also incorporates complementary long-range systems to enhance Ukraine's standoff strike options:

- **Extended Range Attack Munition (ERAM)**: Air-to-ground cruise missiles (up to 280 miles/450 km range) for F-16 fighters. An $825 million tranche approved in August 2025 includes 3,350 ERAMs, GPS kits, and support equipment, financed by Denmark, the Netherlands, and Norway.
- **Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM)**: Potential inclusion of these stealthy cruise missiles (up to 230–600 miles range), though not yet confirmed in the $90 billion breakdown.
- **Patriot Interceptor Missiles**: For the Patriot air defense system, enabling interception of Russian long-range ballistic and cruise missiles (e.g., Kinzhal hypersonics). At least 10 additional Patriot batteries and thousands of interceptors are prioritized, with a first $500 million batch (including HIMARS munitions) arriving in September 2025.

| System | Range | Launch Platform | Primary Role | Estimated Units in Deal |
|--------|--------|-----------------|--------------|-------------------------|
| **ATACMS** | 190 miles | HIMARS/MLRS | Ground-launched precision strikes | 1,000+ |
| **ERAM** | 280 miles | F-16 aircraft | Air-to-ground standoff attacks | 3,350 (initial tranche) |
| **Patriot Missiles** | Intercepts up to 100+ miles | Ground-based Patriot | Air defense vs. incoming missiles | Thousands (with 10+ batteries) |
| **JASSM (potential)** | 230–600 miles | F-16 aircraft | Long-range cruise strikes | TBD |

### Context and Implementation
- **Financing and Timeline**: Ukraine has secured $2–3.5 billion via PURL for initial purchases, with NATO allies aiming for $10 billion total. Monthly deliveries could reach $1 billion starting October 2025, prioritizing urgent needs like air defense amid Russian strikes on Kyiv and Zaporizhzhia.
- **Strategic Shift**: Unlike Biden-era grants, this emphasizes sales to U.S. firms, aligning with Trump's "America First" policy. It replaces paused donations and includes relocation plans for Patriot systems from allies.
- **Limitations**: Tomahawk cruise missiles (1,600+ mile range) were requested but denied to prevent strikes on major Russian cities like Moscow. Targets must be coordinated with the Pentagon.

This deal marks a significant escalation in U.S. support, potentially shifting battlefield dynamics by enabling deeper Ukrainian strikes. For the latest updates, monitor official announcements from the U.S. State Department or Zelenskyy's office, as details may evolve during implementation talks.
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Yes, finally. No more freeloading
 
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#89,408
#89,408
G1_jCpZWAAAWNHv
 
#89,409
#89,409
MontyPython said:
I think conditions remain. Sounds mainly like avoid Moscow.

But I think all those oil refineries are fair game.

Of note, Ukraine has purportedly already developed a long range drone with a max range of 3,000 kms. Guessing it's not being mass produced yet, if real.
Click to expand...

IYHO how do you think Europe will react?
 
#89,411
#89,411
The European continent is getting dicier by the day. Russia escalating incursions into other countries. France, Sweden, England, Germany, Spain all under the strain with social strife due to the flood of migrants. Makes me very nervous. WW III soon incoming? The 80 year rule?
 
#89,413
#89,413
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#89,416
#89,416
hog88 said:
That has nothing to do with my post. But it does make a person ask are European countries barring attacks on liquification plants?
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Your post has nothing to do with the discussion you tried to interject yourself into, considering there was no mention of targeting natural gas facilities.
 
#89,417
#89,417
BeardedVol said:
The problem isn't with "democracy" the problem is with the institutionalized two-party system; Washington warned us of this.

If we were honest as a nation, we'd have 6-8 nationally relevant political parties, and if we coupled that with ranked-choice voting, we'd have a much more accurate representation of the populace, and a government that would be forced to work with one another to govern.
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It's not the two party system, it's just democrats.
 
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#89,419
#89,419
Ukrainian drones have struck at the heart of Russia’s energy sector, knocking nearly 40% of its oil refining capacity offline and forcing Moscow to confront its worst fuel crisis in decades.

Ukrainian drone strikes have crippled Russia’s oil refining industry, forcing an unprecedented wave of refinery shutdowns and triggering a nationwide fuel crunch, The Moscow Times reported on September 30.

By late September, nearly 38% of Russia’s oil refining capacity—around 338,000 tons of crude per day—was offline, according to data from the analytics firm Ciala.

Output of gasoline and diesel plunged by 6% in August and another 18% in September, with downtime at refineries hitting levels “without historical precedent.” The disruptions eclipsed the previous record set just a month earlier, when 23% of refining capacity was knocked offline.
 
#89,422
#89,422

Seems Europe has brewed up its own potential Manhattan Project which may very well enable Ukraine to win the war.​

​

Europe’s Emerging Plan: Give Ukraine $200 Billion in Russian Money​

Details of the plan by Europe to confiscate Russian assets without officially confiscating them:

Enter Europe’s wizards, who cooked up a multistage plan that some might consider worthy of Wall Street.

First, the ECB hands Russia’s reserves to the EU, which officials say stand at roughly €180 billion. The EU gives the money as a “reparations loan” to Ukraine, which Kyiv only repays when Moscow compensates it for war damage.

What if Russia doesn’t pay? Who repays Euroclear to keep its balance sheet intact, and how much?

Nobody and nothing.

Here’s why: Euroclear’s assets must equal its liabilities. In this case, its liability is the contractual obligation to repay Russia—which it can’t do because of the EU sanctions. If and when the Russian cash is packaged as a loan to Ukraine, the EU would replace it on Euroclear’s books with a financial instrument that officials call a “tailored debt contract with Euroclear at 0% interest,” according to an EU paper reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Officials said the debt contract will essentially be a legal promise—an IOU—from the EU to repay Euroclear if needed. The EU in turn would receive guarantees by member states to fund the money if the EU needed to pay out. The EU debt contract would provide Euroclear with an asset to offset its liability, keeping them matched. As a result, until Russia pays to rebuild Ukraine, no money would actually need to be repaid.

As more EU countries sign IOUs, risk for each declines. But participation wouldn’t be obligatory, so Hungary and Slovakia can’t veto the plan.

Under this plan, Euroclear’s assets and liabilities match—at least as long as sanctions forbid it from repaying Russia. A separate fight with Hungary over extending sanctions is simmering, but EU officials believe they have a workaround.

As long as the sanctions remain, Euroclear has no balance-sheet problem because it is prohibited from paying out its liabilities. The structure could remain as long Russia occupies Ukrainian territory and balks at compensation
 
#89,423
#89,423

Trump greenlights U.S. intelligence sharing for Ukraine’s deep strikes on Russia — WSJ. The U.S. will give Ukraine intelligence for long‑range strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure as it considers sending more powerful weapons.​

 
#89,424
#89,424
MontyPython said:

Seems Europe has brewed up its own potential Manhattan Project which may very well enable Ukraine to win the war.​

​

Europe’s Emerging Plan: Give Ukraine $200 Billion in Russian Money​

Details of the plan by Europe to confiscate Russian assets without officially confiscating them:

Enter Europe’s wizards, who cooked up a multistage plan that some might consider worthy of Wall Street.

First, the ECB hands Russia’s reserves to the EU, which officials say stand at roughly €180 billion. The EU gives the money as a “reparations loan” to Ukraine, which Kyiv only repays when Moscow compensates it for war damage.

What if Russia doesn’t pay? Who repays Euroclear to keep its balance sheet intact, and how much?

Nobody and nothing.

Here’s why: Euroclear’s assets must equal its liabilities. In this case, its liability is the contractual obligation to repay Russia—which it can’t do because of the EU sanctions. If and when the Russian cash is packaged as a loan to Ukraine, the EU would replace it on Euroclear’s books with a financial instrument that officials call a “tailored debt contract with Euroclear at 0% interest,” according to an EU paper reviewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Officials said the debt contract will essentially be a legal promise—an IOU—from the EU to repay Euroclear if needed. The EU in turn would receive guarantees by member states to fund the money if the EU needed to pay out. The EU debt contract would provide Euroclear with an asset to offset its liability, keeping them matched. As a result, until Russia pays to rebuild Ukraine, no money would actually need to be repaid.

As more EU countries sign IOUs, risk for each declines. But participation wouldn’t be obligatory, so Hungary and Slovakia can’t veto the plan.

Under this plan, Euroclear’s assets and liabilities match—at least as long as sanctions forbid it from repaying Russia. A separate fight with Hungary over extending sanctions is simmering, but EU officials believe they have a workaround.

As long as the sanctions remain, Euroclear has no balance-sheet problem because it is prohibited from paying out its liabilities. The structure could remain as long Russia occupies Ukrainian territory and balks at compensation
Click to expand...

Why don’t they just stop buying Russian gas?
 
#89,425
#89,425
MontyPython said:

Trump greenlights U.S. intelligence sharing for Ukraine’s deep strikes on Russia — WSJ. The U.S. will give Ukraine intelligence for long‑range strikes on Russia’s energy infrastructure as it considers sending more powerful weapons.​

Click to expand...

About time to hit some liquefaction plants and cut off that LNG
 
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