Talent for a National Championship for the first time since Fulmer

#51
#51
RandomUTfan said:
I wish I had Bud Elliott's number so i could call him up and deliver this news. I'm not being facetious. Your'e absolutely right. But I was also wondering how transfers and the portals factor into this, because unless it does, it's fairly useless.
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A school such as Ole Miss has not thrown off this blue chip theory by winning the transfer portal simply because they have not won a national championship. However: Kiffin, Drinkowitz, and Heupel have all finished ahead of many teams who met this 50% threshold.

My distaste for the BCR is that it’s so lazy that it only predicts one very specific metric of success. Unfortunately, the BCR theory doesn’t even go as far as who finished runner-up. The list of national champions is such a small sample size that anyone could come up with a different observation as to what was unique about these teams. As far as I know, the most important indication of who can be national champion is that they have a certain percentage of non-Caucasian coaches, or maybe their unique trait is that none of the national champions have worn the color green on their uniforms (Miami, Notre Dame, Oregon). They’re all equally rediculous conclusions.
 
#56
#56
89 VOLS grad said:
UGA's QB is trash! I know lots thought we had a good chance to win last year. I think the chance is even better this year at home! Getting them early with question marks for both teams should play in our favor at home! I also think UTs D could be comparable to UGA's this year.
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I thought he looked good against Texas, and Georgia wouldn't have won the SEC championship game without him in there.
 
#57
#57
This is the most talented team of the heupel era but also the least experienced.
 
#58
#58
WillisWG said:
Recent Champions and their Blue-Chip Ratios

  • 2024: Ohio State (90%)
  • 2023: Michigan (54%)

  • 2022: Georgia (77%)

  • 2021: Georgia (80%)

  • 2020: Alabama (83%)

  • 2019: LSU (64%)

  • 2018: Clemson (61%)

  • 2017: Alabama (80%)

  • 2016: Clemson (52%)

  • 2015: Alabama (77%)

  • 2014: Ohio State (68%)

  • 2013: Florida State (53%)

  • 2012: Alabama (71%)

  • 2011: Alabama (71%)
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These historical numbers are meaningless, or maybe not.

In the 2011 class there were only 304 4 and 5 star recruits. In the 2026 class there are 432. That 2011 Alabama team at 71% is way better talent wise than that 2024 Michigan team.

Any attempt to use historical recruiting rankings in any statistical manner is a fool's errand. Their data is crap, their stats aren't consistent year over year. BCR means nothing.

I suspect there are a lot more teams above 50% BCR in 2025 than there were in 2011. You should ask why that is. Recruiting rankings are worthless on a YOY basis, that's why.

Just try using the eye test for heaven's sake. We are no where near UGA talent wise.
 
#59
#59
ntxVOL said:
These historical numbers are meaningless, or maybe not.

In the 2011 class there were only 304 4 and 5 star recruits. In the 2026 class there are 432. That 2011 Alabama team at 71% is way better talent wise than that 2024 Michigan team.

Any attempt to use historical recruiting rankings in any statistical manner is a fool's errand. Their data is crap, their stats aren't consistent year over year. BCR means nothing.

I suspect there are a lot more teams above 50% BCR in 2025 than there were in 2011. You should ask why that is. Recruiting rankings are worthless on a YOY basis, that's why.

Just try using the eye test for heaven's sake. We are no where near UGA talent wise.
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Saying that the 12-1 2011 Bama is better than 8-5 2024 Michigan isn't much of a revelation.

These numbers are just static points reflecting the BCR make up recent CFB Champs. Without checking I would say that both teams in championship games had high BCRs.

Teams with T5 recruiting classes win. recruiting services aren't always right but they are hardly worthless, in my opinion.

IYKYK
 
#60
#60
WillisWG said:
Saying that the 12-1 2011 Bama is better than 8-5 2024 Michigan isn't much of a revelation.

These numbers are just static points reflecting the BCR make up recent CFB Champs. Without checking I would say that both teams in championship games had high BCRs.

Teams with T5 recruiting classes win. recruiting services aren't always right but they are hardly worthless, in my opinion.

IYKYK
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A 2025 BCR above 50% isn't the same as a 2011 BCR above 50%. How many teams were above 50% in 2011? I suspect a lot fewer. Historical comparison are worthless. That's all I'm saying.

ETA: None these comparison mean much in the SEC especially. Only teams from outside the SEC have ever made it to the national championship with a talent deficit.
 
#61
#61
WillisWG said:

​

Enough talk, show me the 2025 Blue-Chip Ratio​

SchoolBCR
Alabama89%
Ohio State89%
Georgia84%
Texas A&M82%
Oregon78%
Texas78%
LSU73%
Notre Dame73%
Oklahoma70%
Penn State68%
Miami64%
Florida64%
Auburn64%
Michigan57%
USC57%
Clemson55%
Tennessee54%
Florida State54%


Tennessee and Florida State return to the fold for the first time in a while. If I had to guess, South Carolina and Ole Miss are likely to make the list grow to 20 in 2026, and no other school is remotely close to joining the club.

www.cbssports.com

Blue-Chip Ratio 2025: These 18 college football teams can actually win the national championship

Breaking down the programs that have done well enough on the recruiting trail to win the CFP in the 2025 season
www.cbssports.com www.cbssports.com

​

With new roster management rules now in effect, including the end of the 25 initial counter cap and more attention paid to the 85-man limit, it's worth briefly explaining how the BCR is calculated.

  • Only signed scholarship players from high school or JUCO count.

  • Walk-ons don't count, even if later placed on scholarship.

  • If a player signs but never enrolls, he still counts.

  • If a player signs, is released and signs elsewhere, he counts for the new school.

  • JUCO-bound signees still count -- the school used one of its spots.
All data is verified manually using the 247Sports Composite, which blends the major recruiting rankings.
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If I was an Oklahoma fan I'd want everyone from the water boy up fired, lol.
 
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