Iran

#6,452
#6,452
lawgator1 said:
They say its because of "positive developments" in the Middle East.... but one has to wonder whether its because at least some official US assessments are that the bombing only set the nuclear effort back by a few months.

This is the worry. That Trump et al overstated the effect of it and Iran is engaged in a delay game while they take the 60 percent material they stowed away the last week or so and ramp it up in the meantime.

I have come to the conclusion that I don't object to the bombing, and if it only slows them down on nukes that's at least something. But we have to close the loop on this, truly end it. Otherwise, all the bombing will have done is let them know they need to speed things up and they can in the meantime delay on the details... until they are ready to test.
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Fair assessment and conclusion IMO
 
#6,455
#6,455
I just hope Israel met its original war objectives, they have more on line than most. It seems it might of crept into regime change, and Trump wanted to nix it and secure at least some semblence of victory before we got too involved. Hopefully they hashed out specifics and I would hate to think we might of been days way from better containment of their nuclear efforts.
 
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#6,456
#6,456
MontyPython said:
Sorry. Not trying to be hostile. This **** amps me up.

I guess the question is ask is, if N Korea can build a nuke, what's preventing Iran from doing it?
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China protects North Korea. That’s the reason North Korea has nukes and nobody’s done anything about it. If it wasn’t for China, North Korea wouldn’t have nukes. (Well, it wouldn’t even exist as a country anymore, but you get the point)

Iran is different…… they have no real allies, even Hezbollah has been fully neutered at this point, so their nuclear program is ripe for the picking, for the most part. Though, I do agree I’m not convinced we have the capabilities to fully end the program without boots on the ground, the strike on Fordow shows we have the ability to at least heavily damage their program.
 
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#6,459
#6,459
lawgator1 said:
No slap on the wrist, I agree. We just don't want it to be counterproductive to the goal of preventing a nuclear Iran and the concerns now being raised put that on the map to be considered.

And if in fact we and the Israelis have to do more to truly end the Iranian nuclear program, not just slow it down, what does that look like?
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All valid points. This bombing was always risky for those reasons.

Not sure what that looks like, we first need to know what the full assessments are. Beyond that contingencies and options are being weighed and worked on I'm sure.
 
#6,460
#6,460
HeuperDrive said:
China protects North Korea. That’s the reason North Korea has nukes and nobody’s done anything about it. If it wasn’t for China, North Korea wouldn’t have nukes. (Well, it wouldn’t even exist as a country anymore, but you get the point)

Iran is different…… they have no real allies, even Hezbollah has been fully neutered at this point, so their nuclear program is ripe for the picking, for the most part. Though, I do agree I’m not convinced we have the capabilities to fully end the program without boots on the ground, the strike on Fordow shows we have the ability to at least heavily damage their program.
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Did we damage Fordo? Still waiting to see definitive intel on that...

As for NK, are you sure about Chinese support?

China's stance on North Korea's nuclear weapons program is complex and not a simple yes-or-no matter. Historically, China has prioritized stability on the Korean Peninsula and maintaining a buffer state in North Korea to counter U.S. influence in the region. However, there’s no definitive evidence that China actively wanted North Korea to acquire nuclear weapons. Instead, China’s actions suggest a preference for a denuclearized North Korea, balanced against its strategic interests.


China has supported North Korea with economic aid and diplomatic cover since the Korean War, partly to ensure the regime’s survival and prevent a U.S.-aligned unified Korea on its border. However, North Korea’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, especially since the 1990s, has created tensions. China has repeatedly called for denuclearization, as seen in its backing of UN sanctions (e.g., Resolutions 1718, 1874, and 2094) after North Korea’s nuclear tests in 2006, 2009, and beyond. These sanctions, which China helped draft, targeted North Korea’s weapons programs, indicating disapproval.


That said, China’s enforcement of sanctions has often been inconsistent, prioritizing trade and stability over strict compliance. For example, reports from the UN Panel of Experts (2010–2020) noted China’s lax enforcement, allowing North Korea to access materials indirectly. This suggests China may have tolerated the program to avoid destabilizing the Kim regime, which could lead to a refugee crisis or U.S. military presence near its border.


On the flip side, China’s strategic calculus doesn’t align with actively wanting a nuclear-armed North Korea. A nuclear North Korea risks escalating tensions with the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, potentially drawing China into unwanted conflicts. It also emboldens North Korea to act independently, reducing China’s leverage—evidenced by North Korea’s defiance of China’s calls to halt tests, like the 2017 ICBM launches.


In short, China likely didn’t want North Korea to obtain nuclear weapons but has been willing to tolerate their development to preserve geopolitical stability and influence. Primary sources like Chinese Foreign Ministry statements (e.g., 2017 calls for “dialogue and consultation”) and Xi Jinping’s meetings with Kim Jong-un (2018–2019) emphasize denuclearization but avoid aggressive measures that could collapse the regime. No direct evidence from X or web sources suggests China explicitly supported North Korea’s nuclear ambitions.
 
#6,463
#6,463
MontyPython said:
No evidence that China actually helped NK get the bomb is my understanding.
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Whether they did or not isn’t the important part. It’s just that now that they exist, China would defend the nuclear program if the U.S. were to preemptively strike it.

(Though I once wrote an alternate history story about North Korea and did an absurd amount of research on the country in the process so I can confirm to you that China and the Soviets/Russians didn’t help the North Korea program and they discovered it fully independent of them)
 
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#6,464
#6,464
OHvol40 said:
How about something a little more personal than money at stake then? If Trump is alive and well at the end of his term, and conducts a peaceful transfer of power, I’ll vote a straight republican ticket the next election cycle, but if he does not, you have to vote a straight democratic ticket. I’m assuming you vote in TN, meaning your democratic ticket basically means nothing, but I live in a swing state making my votes much more consequential. Fair enough?
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Who determines "peaceful transfer of power?" That's a little gray and not what you initially stated:

I have a prediction. If Trump is alive at the end of his term he will refuse to vacate his throne, I mean, office… and all the MAGA turds in our collective punch bowl will try to carry the water for him to do it.
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If the election has shenanigans and a D wins the electoral college, Trump will almost certainly complain and question the numbers. But, if you are saying he will "refuse to leave office," I will definitely take your bet
 
#6,465
#6,465
MontyPython said:
No evidence that China actually helped NK get the bomb is my understanding.
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But China wouldn't allow aggression by a foreign power near their border. No power would try that because of what it would mean.

And diplomacy wouldn't stop North Korea, it won't stop Iran either. A combination of diplomacy and military force might.

If that fails the region, and we are in trouble. The arms race will have begun.
 
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#6,466
#6,466
KB5252 said:
But China wouldn't allow aggression by a foreign or on their border. No power would try that because of what it would mean.

And diplomacy wouldn't stop North Korea, it won't stop Iran either. A combination of diplomacy and military force might.

If that fails the region, and we are in trouble. The arms race will have begun.
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Another subtle difference is that China will keep N Korea in line, so N Korea is basically China having those nukes. There really isn't anyone to keep Iran in check. They are a rogue nation.
 
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#6,472
#6,472
I think Fordow was successful, as centrifuges are fragile and shock waves alone would be massive. I just think Trump stepped in poo about obliterating the “program”.
 
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#6,473
#6,473
SpaceCoastVol said:
IF they went that far down... even a quarter of that wouldn't even you think that enough evidence that their intent isn't peaceful?
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Yeah nobody goes a mile down without it getting out. This isn’t a GI Joe cartoon where cobra just suddenly has a base in the Antarctic. Every country has spy satellites. Hell, you can Google earth most this planet now.
 
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#6,475
#6,475
NEO said:
Yeah nobody goes a mile down without it getting out. This isn’t a GI Joe cartoon where cobra just suddenly has a base in the Antarctic. Every country has spy satellites. Hell, you can Google earth most this planet now.
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So our Manhattan Project... Did Germany and Japan know about it? (No)

No satellite is gonna show dick about a mine shaft entrance. Hell they could build a mosque and put the entrance there. This ain't rocket science.
 
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