Trade Wars and Tariffs

#3,351
#3,351
Vol8188 said:
Not in this domain. If we are going to go after China (which we should), we should be making friends with the rest of the world. We shouldn’t walk into a room and slap everyone in that room immediately

If he had thought it through, he wouldn’t have to change his policy so fast.

Defend his stance. If he did think it through, then why change immediately? Why tariff the entire world at once? None of it is defensible.

He was listening to the wrong people and he screwed up epically, in front of the entire world. When he rolled it back, that is still a massive screw up, but not as big of one as his original proposal was.

You can’t take aggressive action against China, while at the same time taking action against the entire EU and Canada. I mean you can, but that would retarded.
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When the partners that you want concessions from already have the better end of the deals, it makes sense that your offer is ultimately going to be extending the same skewed arrangements rather than giving them even more. So the choices are to continue with the existing deal or to have something taken back. They’re kind of agreeing to keeping those deals in place and doing something for the US citizens in trade (border enforcement, opening markets, meeting their previously agreed to NATO commitments, investing capital inside US borders, etc).
 
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#3,352
#3,352
Thunder Good-Oil said:
When the partners that you want concessions from already have the better end of the deals, it makes sense that your offer is ultimately going to be extending the same skewed arrangements rather than giving them even more. So the choices are to continue with the existing deal or to have something taken back. They’re kind of agreeing to keeping those deals in place and doing something for the US citizens in trade (border enforcement, opening markets, meeting their previously agreed to NATO commitments, investing capital inside US borders, etc).
Click to expand...

You spoke as vaguely as possible. Assuming the “they” you’re referring to is the EU, they’re openly meeting with China about increasing trade with China.

That’s a direct result of how poorly this was handled
 
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#3,356
#3,356
Vol8188 said:
You spoke as vaguely as possible. Assuming the “they” you’re referring to is the EU, they’re openly meeting with China about increasing trade with China.

That’s a direct result of how poorly this was handled
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It’s not vagueness. It’s speaking in general terms. When deals are already skewed in one direction, then the negotiations can evolve around extending the existing deal points instead of granting more.

Poorly handled? Trump needed to get our partners’ attention. He needed to exhibit strength which pisses off those sitting on overly favorable deals. Diplomacy can come later. Right now things need to be more equitable. We have a $37 trillion ND and can’t afford to keep up the same degree of generosity.

If they plan to coalesce to push back, that might not end so well for them. How has BRICS and the EU been managing? We’re better positioned if isolated.

I’m pretty sure at the conclusion we’ll have better opportunities and/or more beneficial arrangements with many. Japan. Australia. NZ. UK. Canada. Mexico. South America. Israel. Denmark. France. Germany. Vietnam. Taiwan. Korea. Who knows how Russia plays out? We’re at war with China. We have just been ignoring it.
 
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#3,357
#3,357
And the folding has started. Happy that the administration is doing these exemptions. It'll be spun as some "art of the deal" BS. There was no deal here. Trump just folded to the (very legitimate) concerns of the US tech industry.

 
#3,358
#3,358
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Poorly handled? Trump needed to get our partners’ attention. He needed to exhibit strength which pisses off those sitting on overly favorable deals. Diplomacy can come later. Right now things need to be more equitable. We have a $37 trillion ND and can’t afford to keep up the same degree of generosity.
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in negotiations, people will intially ask for more than what they want to then settle on what they always wanted.

Maybe Trump wanted 25% tarriffs and some other concessions all along. Other countries already have high tarriffs on the US so Trump gets everyone's attention by imposing 50-60% or higher tarriffs knowing he would get negative reactions. Trump gave countries and markets time to react, then pause it, then lower to 25% he wanted all along then the market reacted by going up 3000 points and everyone calms down. If Trump had initially placed 25% tarriff he would have gotten negative reactions to that 25% and would have to settle for less than the 25% he always wanted. The pause and reset was not a u-turn but strategy,
 
#3,360
#3,360
evillawyer said:
And the folding has started. Happy that the administration is doing these exemptions. It'll be spun as some "art of the deal" BS. There was no deal here. Trump just folded to the (very legitimate) concerns of the US tech industry.

Click to expand...

I do not think it was Trump's plan to get ALL iphones made in the US but some....he got Apple to pledge to invest hundreds of billions to manufacture some kind of devices here......tarriffs can always be added back at any time. The exemption is part of the nuanced, ongoing negotiations.
 
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#3,361
#3,361
jmacvols1 said:
I do not think it was Trump's plan to get ALL iphones made in the US but some....he got Apple to pledge to invest hundreds of billions to manufacture some kind of devices here......tarriffs can always be added back at any time. The exemption is part of the nuanced, ongoing negotiations.
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That was announced prior to the tariff chicanery, so there was no connection there.

And you point to the problem. Tariffs can be implemented and removed with the stroke of a pen. Companies have no idea what's going on. Why would you build a plant in America, with its higher production costs, unless you had confidence tariffs would be in place? All that Trump is showing you is that America is NOT a stable investment at this time.
 
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#3,364
#3,364
evillawyer said:
That was announced prior to the tariff chicanery, so there was no connection there.

And you point to the problem. Tariffs can be implemented and removed with the stroke of a pen. Companies have no idea what's going on. Why would you build a plant in America, with its higher production costs, unless you had confidence tariffs would be in place? All that Trump is showing you is that America is NOT a stable investment at this time.
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he got Apple to invest in the US, the timing does not matter. Trump is attempting to get at least some tech manufacturing going in the US.

so far Trump has gotten up to about 3 trillion dollars worth of investments from various companies.
 
#3,365
#3,365
jmacvols1 said:
he got Apple to invest in the US, the timing does not matter. Trump is attempting to get at least some tech manufacturing going in the US.

so far Trump has gotten up to about 3 trillion dollars worth of investments from various companies.
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Commitments to invest. Not Investments. Nothing binding. Remember foxconn?
 
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#3,366
#3,366
Looks like Bessent is the only voice of reason right now. He also got Trump to do the 90 day pause once the Treasury yields shot up.

 
#3,370
#3,370
jmacvols1 said:
....and tarriffs can be reinstated at any time
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Yeah, but Trump's become the boy who cried wolf on tariffs. He puts them on, markets react, and he backtracks quicker than Melania goes dry when Donny disrobes. All this is doing is discouraging investment in the US because we're led by a mercurial madman.
 
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#3,371
#3,371
BigOrangeMojo said:
....and Trump can bend the knee at any time to the bond market
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he didn't....there was a bond auction on the 10th and people were buying bonds....the bond market is being being overhyped by the left...

just a few days ago all we heard from the left was inflation is coming...then it was the stock market crashing...now it's bonds bonds bonds

Hedgie
@HedgieMarkets
Apr 10

🦔 Wow! This Treasury auction result is actually a positive sign amid all the chaos!

In simple terms:

The government just sold a bunch of 30-year bonds, and there was surprisingly strong demand for them. The 2.6 "bid-to-cover" means investors wanted to buy 2.6x more bonds than were available which the 3rd highest demand ever recorded!

Even more telling is that "Direct" buyers (real investors, not just banks) took a much bigger piece than expected. This suggests that despite all the market turmoil, investors still have confidence in US government debt.

This really matters because just days ago, there were concerns about a potential "buyers' strike" in the Treasury market that could send interest rates soaring. This strong auction result helps ease those fears.

This strong auction suggests there are plenty of buyers for US Treasury bonds right now. If Chinese banks tried to sell their Treasury holdings, this level of demand indicates they'd likely find willing buyers without having to drastically lower prices. That's why this auction result is reassuring, it shows the market can absorb large sales without yields spiking further.

yields are coming down from their spike over the past 2 days. The 10-year yield reached about 4.5% during the panic and has now settled back to around 4.3%. This strong auction is helping to stabilize rates.
 
#3,372
#3,372
The uncertainty alone will probably be enough to get some companies to move out of China. China is in trouble right now, won't take much to upset the apple cart over there.

In the mean time I think it would be wise to revoke the visas of all Chinese students studying in American universities, and ban all future Chinese students from entering American universities. Most are spies anyways. That would give their cage a good rattling.

If they won't play ball still then block China from purchasing any future businesses or property (should have been done already IMO).
 
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#3,373
#3,373
jmacvols1 said:
he didn't....there was a bond auction on the 10th and people were buying bonds....the bond market is being being overhyped by the left...

just a few days ago all we heard from the left was inflation is coming...then it was the stock market crashing...now it's bonds bonds bonds

Hedgie
@HedgieMarkets
Apr 10

🦔 Wow! This Treasury auction result is actually a positive sign amid all the chaos!

In simple terms:

The government just sold a bunch of 30-year bonds, and there was surprisingly strong demand for them. The 2.6 "bid-to-cover" means investors wanted to buy 2.6x more bonds than were available which the 3rd highest demand ever recorded!

Even more telling is that "Direct" buyers (real investors, not just banks) took a much bigger piece than expected. This suggests that despite all the market turmoil, investors still have confidence in US government debt.

This really matters because just days ago, there were concerns about a potential "buyers' strike" in the Treasury market that could send interest rates soaring. This strong auction result helps ease those fears.

This strong auction suggests there are plenty of buyers for US Treasury bonds right now. If Chinese banks tried to sell their Treasury holdings, this level of demand indicates they'd likely find willing buyers without having to drastically lower prices. That's why this auction result is reassuring, it shows the market can absorb large sales without yields spiking further.

yields are coming down from their spike over the past 2 days. The 10-year yield reached about 4.5% during the panic and has now settled back to around 4.3%. This strong auction is helping to stabilize rates.
Click to expand...

He 100% bent the knee to Wall St. They bought bonds on the 10th because he caved in on the 9th....
 
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