Trade Wars and Tariffs

[tvolsfan]

You may well be surprised, step by step.

Maybe, but I doubt its seriously challenging the dollar anytime soon. A far more likely threat is the Euro, especially if Europe federalizes.

 

[LSU-SIU]

Where will they go?

Dirt nap.

 

[EasternVol]

I would go back to their comments in 2008, maybe I will try and find an article. They were complaining that the U.S. was not producing enough dollars which was causing everyone to collapse. The question was posed, what to do? The answer is they said they didn't have a choice.

There is no backup system, at the end of the line on all these systems is the U.S. dollar system.

> Growth
> Peak
> Unable to grow at an exponential rate
> Collapse
> Liquidation of the unfunded liabilities
> Low (could be dark age)
> (rinse and repeat)

The Chinese know that reset means 100s of millions of Chinese are going to have to go, and probably a 1-2 billion Asians.

You keep babbling about scads of Asians 'having to go'. What are the details there?

 

[LSU-SIU]

You keep babbling about scads of Asians 'having to go'. What are the details there?

4 billion asians can't feed themselves without a functional global credit system. Liquidation and reorganization. The unfunded liabilities will have to be eliminated from the balance sheet.

 

[PEPPERJAX]

Dirt nap.

Naw

Too much rice flowing around for that to happen.

 

[tvolsfan]

It would mean the end of the US dollar as the reserve currency and crash the worth of the dollar.

It wouldn't be over a century, decade more or less.

Okay, I'll bite. What percentage value hit would you guess it would be?

 

[hog88]

I had no idea. Kinda blows my mind, tbh.

It's infuriating when you really look into it. We financed the buildup of both Russia's and China's military and really China's industrialization through the IMF and World Bank.

 

[LSU-SIU]

Naw

Too much rice flowing around for that to happen.

Not without easy credit.

 

[EasternVol]

4 billion asians can't feed themselves without a functional global credit system. Liquidation and reorganization. The unfunded liabilities will have to be eliminated from the balance sheet.

Participation of the US in their trade mechanisms isn't necessary for them to eat, if that's what you're trying to say.

 

[LSU-SIU]

Participation of the US in their trade mechanisms isn't necessary for them to eat, if that's what you're trying to say.

A functional global credit system is, if the present one goes... collapse, liquidation and if there is anyone left reorganization.

They'll be chopping each other up, everyone will be if your ATM stops working.... what a month, a week, a day, a hour?

 

[hog88]

Maybe, but I doubt its seriously challenging the dollar anytime soon. A far more likely threat is the Euro, especially if Europe federalizes.

Europe is essentially federalized now. But yeah Europe and the Euro could have challenged the dollar but not now, they have made themselves too dependent on foreign energy, primarily Russia to challenge the dollar now.

 

[MurphyVol]

Well Biden did maintain and/or increase the initial Trump tariffs 4 years ago. We did not have the outrage like today in the media and this forum. Definitely strange.

I think most of Biden's additional tariffs were focused on China. I can't say that with 100% certainty but everything I remember reading was that he kept all of Trump's tariffs and ratcheted up some on China.

 

[PEPPERJAX]

Europe is essentially federalized now. But yeah Europe and the Euro could have challenged the dollar but not now, they have made themselves too dependent on foreign energy, primarily Russia to challenge the dollar now.

Those dumb bastards are funding the Russian war machine they hate.

 

[McDad]

The US dollar is most certainly a commodity, if it wasn't why else would we care so much about it being the worlds reserve currency or competition from BRICS?

There is a name for what you did in our discussion with your question.
The evidence of your claim is supported by the question you raised but not by any facts.

I can't answer your question. But your question also doesn't support your assertion.

If the demand for money was decreased thereby decreasing its value, wouldn't the response by the FR or the government be to take more money out of the supply to enhance the value?

 

[hog88]

Okay, I'll bite. What percentage value hit would you guess it would be?

80% - 90% it would resemble the greenback or continental.

 

[LSU-SIU]

If the demand for money was decreased thereby decreasing its value, wouldn't the response by the FR or the government be to take more money out of the supply to enhance the value?

That is essential what happened in 2008, the private sector could no longer produce the new money creation... the value of the dollar went up. The global systems started to collapse.

The system was probably a few hours of resetting.

 

[hog88]

There is a name for what you did in our discussion with your question.
The evidence of your claim is supported by the question you raised but not by any facts.

I can't answer your question. But your question also doesn't support your assertion.

If the demand for money was decreased thereby decreasing its value, wouldn't the response by the FR or the government be to take more money out of the supply to enhance the value?

Yes the probably would but they couldn't strip enough out fast enough to keep it from crashing in value.

 

[McDad]

Supply and demand

I grasp the concept. I have familiarity with it on the stuff I purchase. I can see the dollar moving in value relative to supply and demand. I don't see it moving to zero value based on it no longer being reserve currency. So far, I am gaining in understanding and learning new things.

But the leap to zero still escapes me.

 

[tvolsfan]

There is a name for what you did in our discussion with your question.
The evidence of your claim is supported by the question you raised but not by any facts.

I can't answer your question. But your question also doesn't support your assertion.

If the demand for money was decreased thereby decreasing its value, wouldn't the response by the FR or the government be to take more money out of the supply to enhance the value?

It just doesn't make sense on the surface. Why would the value of the dollar completely collapse (and I'm not talking about a 10-20 percent hit, in the long run, we're talking about to the value of it being effectively worthless) when it hasn't happened for basically every other currency? The Canadian Dollar was worth more than USD not too long ago. Pretty sure that wasn't because it was briefly the reserve currency.

Why would the USD suddenly be worth less than Canadian, Australian, and Singaporean dollars? Why isn't it worth as much as the Pound, the Euro, the Swiss Frank, etc?

 

[McDad]

It's infuriating when you really look into it. We financed the buildup of both Russia's and China's military and really China's industrialization through the IMF and World Bank.

I assume we provide the money for the IMF and World Bank because of the dollar's position as world currency? And if true, we have to keep funding those entities because we have a vested interest in remaining the world's reserve currency. Yes?

 

[McDad]

That is essential what happened in 2008, the private sector could no longer produce the new money creation... the value of the dollar went up. The global systems started to collapse.

The system was probably a few hours of resetting.

That is not my recollection wrt the economic downturn of 2008.

 

[titansvolsfaninga]

They don't care until it happens to them. Empathy separates humans from Neanderthals. Hell, even animals have empathy, not sure how that basic emotion skipped some humans, but here we are.

 

[McDad]

Yes the probably would but they couldn't strip enough out fast enough to keep it from crashing in value.

That's assumptive.

If we're talking about the dollar as commodity, then the same things done to manipulate other commodites would be done for the dollar.

Wouldn't there would be months of advance notice or rumors the reserve currency was being changed giving them time to enhance the value?
Couldn't the governement simply decree us dollars held outside the US have no value and destroy all the foreign dollars overnight?

 

[McDad]

It just doesn't make sense on the surface. Why would the value of the dollar completely collapse (and I'm not talking about a 10-20 percent hit, in the long run, we're talking about to the value of it being effectively worthless) when it hasn't happened for basically every other currency? The Canadian Dollar was worth more than USD not too long ago. Pretty sure that wasn't because it was briefly the reserve currency.

Why would the USD suddenly be worth less than Canadian, Australian, and Singaporean dollars? Why isn't it worth as much as the Pound, the Euro, the Swiss Frank, etc?

I am having trouble with it too. Seems other countries can have dollars that work for them but ours only works for us if the dollar is reserve currency. It is challenging to comprehend.

 

[titansvolsfaninga]

They don't care until it happens to them. Empathy separates humans from Neanderthals. Hell, even animals have empathy, not sure how that basic emotion skipped some humans, but here we are.

I am not 100% sure what reality these people live in, but it's not the same as a majority of Americans. Despite the economic turmoil, we can all rest easy that we have the Gulf of America.