All things STOCKS

#17,276
#17,276
tbh said:
For all y'all who are way more well-versed in all things covered call: Are CC ETF/ETPs like AIPI (whose distributions appear to be ROC-based, with the potential for some capital gains) suitable for a Roth IRA? Or are they like MLPs in the sense that they're better off in a taxable brokerage account?

My thought behind this is to open a Roth IRA, dump some cash into AIPI and/or other CC-oriented ETF/ETPs, and just let it marinate for the next 20ish years. Then, when I retire...additional tax-free monthly income(?)
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I don't think this is a really smart play for a either, actually. It's terrible for taxable. In a Roth, though, it seems like cutting off the upside is not at all a good idea. how brave are you? If you are brave, in a Roth, you may want to do the opposite. [ I should add here, the ETF's behave in a way that I personally would never do. If they behaved like me, then I might be fine with it. YMMV, people are starting new ETFs all the time.]

The ideal amount of leverage, apart from emotions and fear, is not below 1 for people who are not retired. Some people though are not concerned with the ideal for various reasons.
 
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#17,277
#17,277
mrorange211 said:
Is anyone else concerned that China is buying gold like it's Black Friday?

To add to this question. Is it concerning to anyone that banks are borrowing more than they did in 2008?
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Banks are always in self-destruct mode. It'll never change. They can't do otherwise.
They borrow short with demand deposits
They lend long.
They have other ideas about investing, but then they tend to use extreme leverage whenever they believe something works part of the time.

That is why there is a federal reserve, basically.
 
#17,278
#17,278
mrorange211 said:
Is anyone else concerned that China is buying gold like it's Black Friday?

To add to this question. Is it concerning to anyone that banks are borrowing more than they did in 2008?

View attachment 721116
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The nominal amount that they are borrowing is kind of irrelevant (banking system is larger today than in 2008). What does their capital position look like relative to 2008?
 
#17,279
#17,279
SMCI didn’t tank with the quarterly release this evening. Next up is the extended deadline for filing the late annual report or being delisted. 2/25 IIRC.

Up almost 50% in a little over a week. Would have thought it would have given a chunk of that back in after hours trading instead of being up slightly. But it was down several percentage points in today’s regular trading session.
 
#17,282
#17,282
mrorange211 said:
Great point about the banks that I did not consider. I would say that the Reverse Repos are drying up fast and liquidity is significantly going down. Maybe that's a part of it?
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Liquidity has been going down for the last couple of years now, once rates started moving up. Banks started lending again once economic activity picked up after COVID and the yield curve steepened.
 
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#17,283
#17,283
Bought PLTR puts for 7/18/25 strike @ $50 for .73

Seems like easy money to me, but this could GME even more. Low buy-in , so I thought it worth the gamble.
 
#17,285
#17,285
UTgrad2015 said:
Just bought some shares of AMD. Do we think the bottom is in?
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Earnings date is 5/6/25. P/E is 111x and the forward P/E is 24x. If they fail to grow earnings the shares will struggle.

The market cap is $180 billion. That used to be a lot. Not so much these days.

They don’t have their own fabrication facilities so they are always going to be vulnerable if they have disruptions. China threatens Taiwan Semi and AMD will feel it as well.

Spread the risk. The supply chain is disbursed over many sources for critical inputs.
 
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#17,286
#17,286
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Earnings date is 5/6/25. P/E is 111x and the forward P/E is 24x. If they fail to grow earnings the shares will struggle.

The market cap is $180 billion. That used to be a lot. Not so much these days.

They don’t have their own fabrication facilities so they are always going to be vulnerable if they have disruptions. China threatens Taiwan Semi and AMD will feel it as well.

Spread the risk. The supply chain is disbursed over many sources for critical inputs.
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Thank you for the input. Always learn something from your posts
 
#17,287
#17,287
Considering that a lot of folks are going back to work now (verses work from home), what are we thinking about REIT's now? In particular NYMT. I've held it a long time and watched it go down until lately, so I am wondering. The only reason I held it so long was the 13% dividend, so theres that.

Thoughts?


edited to correct rit to reit.
 
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#17,288
#17,288
CAPTAIN--VOL CAVALRY said:
Considering that a lot of folks are going back to work now (verses work from home), what are we thinking about RIT's now? In particular NYMT. I've held it a long time and watched it go down until lately, so I am wondering. The only reason I held it so long was the 13% dividend, so theres that.

Thoughts?
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RIT or REIT?

NYMT has probably been bouncing around because of the unpredictable federal reserve rates. Seems like the consensus a year ago was a lot more cuts were predicted than what materialized. Now the expectations seem to be that rates will hold fairly steady. How all that affects mortgage companies I’m not real clear. Lower rates drive demand. But higher demand takes properties out of the inventory of what’s for sale. Then with mortgage companies there’s the banking element that writes loans and those companies that buy them up and service them. Sometimes it’s the same company (Wells Fargo used to write loans and hold on to them) but often the underwriters quickly sell them off. Mortgage REITs aren’t an investment that I’m confident with.
 
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#17,291
#17,291
mrorange211 said:
I'm gonna open a position in Nike on Tuesday. It's far too low at this point. LT for me.
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Where are they manufacturing most of their shoes these days? NIKE could be under pressure if the trade war with China escalates. Also, Vietnam might be one of the countries with the biggest US trade surplus. On the other hand, those things are well known and could be fully priced into the shares already.
 
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#17,292
#17,292
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Where are they manufacturing most of their dhoes these days? NIKE could be under pressure if the trade war with China escalates. Also, Vietnam might be one of the countries with the biggest US trade surplus. On the other hand, those things are well known and could be fully priced into the shares already.
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This is the main reason I'll make the trade. There is no originality in my trades. I just copy the ones I think will work from the big boys such as Druckenmiller, Tepper, and Dalio. It's why I'm heavily invested in China and bought UBER two weeks ago. The way I figure, these guys have already done the research for me and are billionaires. Why not just do what they do?
 
#17,293
#17,293
tbh said:
So far, this is the only mention I've seen of it, but Intel appears as though it may be setting up to offload parts of its core business to Broadcom and/or TSMC. Doesn't sound like anything is imminent, but it's worth watching.

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They grew too big and with disparate operating pieces. Then they haven’t been able to attract competent managers to oversee the consolidation of the parts as a focused high tech business. Mobileye, PC CPUs, and manufacturing facilities don’t really complement each other. But offloading manufacturing could make them vulnerable to the ebbs and flows of the Far East production base. But there are also other parts of the supply chain that could be disrupted anyway.
 
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#17,294
#17,294
mrorange211 said:
This is the main reason I'll make the trade. There is no originality in my trades. I just copy the ones I think will work from the big boys such as Druckenmiller, Tepper, and Dalio. It's why I'm heavily invested in China and bought UBER two weeks ago. The way I figure, these guys have already done the research for me and are billionaires. Why not just do what they do?
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You never know. Buffett bought a lot of shares of Kraft-Heinz and Occidental Petroleum.
 
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#17,296
#17,296
Thunder Good-Oil said:
They grew too big and with disparate operating pieces. Then they haven’t been able to attract competent managers to oversee the consolidation of the parts as a focused high tech business. Mobileye, PC CPUs, and manufacturing facilities don’t really complement each other. But offloading manufacturing could make them vulnerable to the ebbs and flows of the Far East production base. But there are also other parts of the supply chain that could be disrupted anyway.
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Yep, Intel is a mess. I'm kinda hoping Broadcom doesn't take on their chip design group. Things seem to be going well at Broadcom as it stands.

With the federal dollars Intel secured (and even without that), I can't help but wonder if the current administration would take an approach similar to the US Steel saga in terms of sale to a non-US group?
 
#17,297
#17,297
Everyone on FINTWIT is talking about $GRAB this weekend. FYI. It's an interesting company with huge buys from Toyota last quarter. Could be something to watch.
 
#17,298
#17,298
Best online discount brokerage?
I currently use Vanguard. Would like to use a 2nd brokerage.
I do my own research. I trade stocks, buy CDs and Treasuries. No puts/calls.
 
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#17,299
#17,299
mrorange211 said:
Everyone on FINTWIT is talking about $GRAB this weekend. FYI. It's an interesting company with huge buys from Toyota last quarter. Could be something to watch.
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Penny stock. Hurry in, hurry out.
Maybe they are going to do something to fix the new Camry POS. Toyota trucks with mini engines/super chargers.
 
#17,300
#17,300
Go aeiou said:
Best online discount brokerage?
I currently use Vanguard. Would like to use a 2nd brokerage.
I do my on research. I trade stocks, buy CDs and Treasuries. No puts/calls.
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Honestly, Robinhood, but if you need something that's not so easy to access Fidelity is good. It's not always good for me to have stocks on my phone. Ha
 
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