2024 Presidential Race

#48,528
#48,528
hog88 said:
Why a corporate income tax?
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I mean the shareholders are getting virtually free limited liability, the corporation is nothing but a creature of the State. I see nothing wrong with it, generally speaking. They get a clear benefit from the State to pretend it exists. Just my take. The income tax was really about the privilege of operating in the public right, somehow it became operating in the private Rights.
 
#48,529
#48,529
Touchdown Timmy playing today, or is it Touchdown Tampon Timmy? (Looks like the story is tomorrow)

Going to be an interesting couple of weeks for humanity.
 
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#48,531
#48,531
Good conversation. If you’re wanting to see someone push back hard against Trump, you won’t like it. But if you just want to see a casual and funny conversation, it’s worth listening to

 
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#48,533
#48,533
BowlBrother85 said:
If you really are the election guru, that you seem to fancy yourself being, then you should know who Dr. Allan Lichtman is. He disagrees with you. And the only state where Trump was undervalued in 2020 was Wisconsin, and slightly in Nevada. I bet you thought there would be a red wave in the 2022 mid-terms as well, didn't you? 1.2% is nothing. That is one poll. Good lord.




^^^^ The only Presidential Election since 1984 that Dr. Allan Lichtman has ever gotten wrong was the 2000 Presidential Election. He had Gore winning. However, Bush literally beat Gore by 537 votes, so it wasn't much of a miss. Dr. Lichtman has Kamala Harris winning ... but I guess you are more of an expert than he is, right? LOL.
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This is 100% inaccurate. By polls here I mean the last RCP average before the 2020 election

Michigan polls: Biden by 7.9,
Michigan results: Biden by 2.8

Pennsylvania polls: Biden by 4.2
Pennsylvania results: Biden by 1.2

Virginia polls: Biden by 12.0
Virginia results: Biden by 10.1

National polls: Biden by 7.2
National results: Biden by 4.5

The Harris campaign is terrified right now and should be. With the polls this close and Trump consistently underperforming in polls, I’d call it 60/40 for Trump right now
 
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#48,534
#48,534
Vol8188 said:
This is 100% inaccurate. By polls hear I mean the last RCP average before the 2020 election

Michigan polls: Biden by 7.9,
Michigan results: Biden by 2.8

Pennsylvania polls: Biden by 4.2
Pennsylvania results: Biden by 1.2

Virginia polls: Biden by 12.0
Virginia results: Biden by 10.1

The Harris campaign is terrified right now and should be. With the polls this close and Trump consistently underperforming in polls, I’d call it 60/40 for Trump right now
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But are the polls still as off this time around, or have they been corrected?
 
#48,535
#48,535
85SugarVol said:
But are the polls still as off this time around, or have they been corrected?
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It’s a fair question. But given the polls still hadn’t corrected in 2020, I’m not convinced they have. I think Trump appeals to so many people who typically don’t vote, that it makes polling very hard

History tells us polls underestimated his support in both 16 and 20. I think they’re underestimating in 24 too.
 
#48,538
#48,538
Vol8188 said:
It’s a fair question. But given the polls still hadn’t corrected in 2020, I’m not convinced they have. I think Trump appeals to so many people who typically don’t vote, that it makes polling very hard

History tells us polls underestimated his support in both 16 and 20. I think they’re underestimating in 24 too.
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There is something different about Trump and his polling.

Trump is polling consistently ahead of R senate candidates in Montana, Florida, & Texas. Why is that? Idk.
 
#48,539
#48,539
85SugarVol said:
There is something different about Trump and his polling.

Trump is polling consistently ahead of R senate candidates in Montana, Florida, & Texas. Why is that? Idk.
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That is interesting. I’d be curious to know how he did in swing states vs senators each year.

I think in TX it’s just because Cruz is disliked. I can’t say I know enough about the other races to know
 
#48,540
#48,540
Vol8188 said:
What’s the USC poll saying right now?
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They stopped I guess.

poll.qu.edu

Swing State Poll 2024: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin: Blue Wall Shows Cracks As Race Tightens, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; U.S. Senate Races: Michigan Moves To Toss-Up, Dems Lead In PA & WI | Quinnipiac University Poll

"That was then, this is now. The Harris post-debate starburst dims to a glow as Harris enters the last weeks slipping slightly in the Rust Belt," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
poll.qu.edu poll.qu.edu

This is interesting. Imagine if there is a 5.7 error in favor of Harris.
 
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#48,541
#48,541
85SugarVol said:
But are the polls still as off this time around, or have they been corrected?
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On this topic, here’s the other crazy thing right now. Any level of underestimation for Trump right now, is likely enough for him to win. Granted the polls could be underestimating Harris, but I find that less likely
 
#48,542
#48,542
Vol8188 said:
This is 100% inaccurate. By polls hear I mean the last RCP average before the 2020 election

Michigan polls: Biden by 7.9,
Michigan results: Biden by 2.8

Pennsylvania polls: Biden by 4.2
Pennsylvania results: Biden by 1.2

Virginia polls: Biden by 12.0
Virginia results: Biden by 10.1

National polls: Biden by 7.2
National results: Biden by 4.5

The Harris campaign is terrified right now and should be. With the polls this close and Trump consistently underperforming in polls, I’d call it 60/40 for Trump right now
Click to expand...

If pollsters have corrected properly, it's a toss-up. If they haven't, Trump is running away with this thing.
 
#48,545
#48,545
Vol8188 said:
They were off in 2020 and 2016. We will see, but I think there’s something specific to Trump that is hard to capture in polling
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I think the Trump variable (if he’s on the ballot) is what also makes it difficult to gauge the 2022 midterms and how those contests inform us about 2024.

“Trump candidates” got waxed at the ballot in ‘22 - in places he won in ‘20 and likely will again in ‘24.

He’s such a wildcard.
 
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#48,546
#48,546
85SugarVol said:
I think the Trump variable (if he’s on the ballot) is what also makes it difficult to gauge the 2022 midterms and how those contests inform us about 2024.

“Trump candidates” got waxed at the ballot in ‘22 - in places he won in ‘20 and likely will again in ‘24.

He’s such a wildcard.
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And I think you hit the nail on the head about 2022. “If he’s on the ballot”
 
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#48,547
#48,547

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www.reuters.com

WASHINGTON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump are tied across seven battleground states that could decide the November presidential election, a Wall Street Journal opinion poll showed on Friday.
The poll showed Harris with marginal 2 percentage point leads in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, Trump up 6 points in Nevada and 1 in Pennsylvania, and the two tied in North Carolina and Wisconsin. The poll of 600 registered voters in each state conducted on Sept. 28-Oct. 8 had a margin of error of 4 percentage points in each state.


3.7 error in favor of democrats 2016 and 2020.
 
#48,549
#48,549
rekinhavoc said:

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www.reuters.com

WASHINGTON, Oct 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump are tied across seven battleground states that could decide the November presidential election, a Wall Street Journal opinion poll showed on Friday.
The poll showed Harris with marginal 2 percentage point leads in Arizona, Georgia and Michigan, Trump up 6 points in Nevada and 1 in Pennsylvania, and the two tied in North Carolina and Wisconsin. The poll of 600 registered voters in each state conducted on Sept. 28-Oct. 8 had a margin of error of 4 percentage points in each state.


3.7 error in favor of democrats 2016 and 2020.
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If that (3.7% error), that’s wild, that would mean Trump would win the national vote too.

I don’t see that happening. But I do still think Trump wins
 
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