What's the Case for Arizona as last #1?

#1
mrmax86

mrmax86

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#1
Looking at ESPN:
On their page I see ONE top 25 opponent for them in conference play.
Looking at ours, I see SIX

Looking at NET (which is big for the selection committee):
They have two Quad 2 losses and and one Quad 3 loss. Nobody all the way down to 16th has one.
We have one Quad 1 loss. That's it.

Looking at KenPom:
Arizona 6th O, 14th D
Tennessee 19th O, 3rd D

The NET and strength of Conference play (the most recent measure of performance) both lean pretty heavily in our direction. Not really sure there is a discussion to be had about who should get the honor of the 4th #1 seed, unless we unravel. But, in my opinion, if we win our last 2, there is definitely no discussion to be had, right?

What are everyone's thoughts?
 
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#2
#2
The case for Arizona is that they're 7-3 in Q1 games, including a 4-2 record in Q1A games. They also have a really impressive win at Duke.

Their problem, however, is Tennessee. Tennessee is now 6-4 in Q1A games with just as many overall Q1 wins. Tennessee doesn't have the Q3 wart that Arizona has. And Tennessee sees that road win at Duke and raises them road wins at Kentucky and Alabama.

It certainly wouldn't hurt if they were to lose at UCLA tomorrow, and while we're at it, let's just go ahead and pull for Duke to beat UNC on Saturday. But if we win our last 2 and don't crap the bed in the SEC quarterfinals, I do believe we'll be a 1 seed.
 
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#3
#3
wtmvol said:
The case for Arizona is that they're 7-3 in Q1 games, including a 4-2 record in Q1A games. They also have a really impressive win at Duke.

Their problem, however, is Tennessee. Tennessee is now 6-4 in Q1A games with just as many overall Q1 wins. Tennessee doesn't have the Q3 wart that Arizona has. And Tennessee sees that road win at Duke and raises them road wins at Kentucky and Alabama.

It certainly wouldn't hurt if they were to lose at UCLA tomorrow, and while we're at it, let's just go ahead and pull for Duke to beat UNC on Saturday. But if we win our last 2 and don't crap the bed in the SEC quarterfinals, I do believe we'll be a 1 seed.
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This is the first I've heard of Q1A as a metric. Where do you check on that? It's not on the NCAA NET site.
 
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#5
#5
wtmvol said:
Q1A is basically just the top section of Q1. It's 1-15 Home, 1-25 Neutral, and 1-40 Away.

I use Torvik's site a lot, which includes Q1A.
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I'm tracking Torvik. I'll check that out.
 
#10
#10
kayman1 said:
Frankly, I'd rather be the 1st 2 seed than the last 1 seed. If we are last 1 seed, we will be sent out west! Ugh
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I was talking to by boss about that as well. It’d be an acceptable consolation prize to play closer if we can’t get a 1 seed.

I want the 1 seed for recognition and to further advance the program. First time would be sweet.
 
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#13
#13
I believe a lot of it is the assumption that we're going to pick up another loss and they aren't. Now that we made it past Auburn and Alabama we're getting more 1 seed projections. If we beat SC tonight we'll likely open up more of an edge on Arizona across the bracket projections.
 
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#14
#14
kayman1 said:
Frankly, I'd rather be the 1st 2 seed than the last 1 seed. If we are last 1 seed, we will be sent out west! Ugh
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You do realize we will play our first two games close to home regardless. So yes I would like to go out west for two games which means we won’t have to play UConn, Houston, or Purdue until at least the final four. This is common sense sir. Take the 1 seed and the theoretical easier path and march.
 
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#15
#15
Oh snap, I didn't realize that Florida jumped up to #26 in the NET rankings. Previously, Arizona was 8-3 in Q1 games and we were 6-5. With Florida jumping up (and I guess a team on Arizona's win list falling out of Q1), it's 7-3 and 7-5.

I think the scales are already tilted in our favor, but there's now zero question in my mind that a win tonight would basically seal it.
 
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#16
#16
Arizona hasn't beaten a ranked team in 2024....how crazy is that and this is supposed to be the 4th #1 seed? They lost to 21st ranked Washington State (their only game against a ranked team this year).

Best wins are at Duke (but it was the 2nd game of the year for them), vs Wisconsin, vs Bama (neutral court) all 3 happened before Christmas though.

I don't even know why or how they're SOS and SRS are as high as they are...

SRS they've played just 9 teams with a 15 or higher, and Michigan State has had a pretty bad year.


For comparison, we've played 11 teams with a 15 or higher. Seems like blue blood bias honestly, cause based on who they've played to end the season it doesn't seem to make much sense.

Our last 10 we're 8-2, lost to South Carolina (24-5) and lost at A&M (16-13)
Arizona's last 10 they're 9-1, lost at Washington State (23-7)

Their best wins were at Utah (18-11) and at Colorado (20-9) during that stretch. Our best wins were at Kentucky (21-8), vs Auburn (23-7), at Alabama (20-10)
 
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#17
#17
eman17 said:
Geography. They would be the 1 seed in the West Region.
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If it is close enough for an argument, I think location would be the likely factor. I'd rather be the 2 playing in Charlotte anyways.

Edit - I see some saying we'd still play close to home in the early rounds. I'm all for being a #1 if that is the case.
 
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#18
#18
b_gann said:
If it is close enough for an argument, I think location would be the likely factor. I'd rather be the 2 playing in Charlotte anyways.

Edit - I see some saying we'd still play close to home in the early rounds. I'm all for being a #1 if that is the case.
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That is the case. The first two round sites are not tied to the regions. We would play in Charlotte/Memphis (most likely Charlotte) no matter if we're a 1 seed or a 2 seed. The only thing that changes is the location of the Sweet 16 and Elite 8 rounds and the opponents. If we're a 1 seed, the S16/E8 rounds will be in Los Angeles. If we're a 2 seed, the S16/E8 rounds would either be in Dallas or Detroit (South/Midwest regions). The first two round locations will not change no matter what at this point (either Charlotte or Memphis)
 
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#19
#19
The current case is that they hope Tennessee loses and Arizona wins out. If the season ended today TN deserves the #1 spot over them. Our resume is currently better and there is no denying that. Most of their Q1 wins pale in comparison to ours and they also have worse losses.

Unfortunately though, we will be punished if we lose again, just becuase we have a tougher schedule. It's silly to me.
 
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#20
#20
mrmax86 said:
Looking at ESPN:
On their page I see ONE top 25 opponent for them in conference play.
Looking at ours, I see SIX

Looking at NET (which is big for the selection committee):
They have two Quad 2 losses and and one Quad 3 loss. Nobody all the way down to 16th has one.
We have one Quad 1 loss. That's it.

Looking at KenPom:
Arizona 6th O, 14th D
Tennessee 19th O, 3rd D

The NET and strength of Conference play (the most recent measure of performance) both lean pretty heavily in our direction. Not really sure there is a discussion to be had about who should get the honor of the 4th #1 seed, unless we unravel. But, in my opinion, if we win our last 2, there is definitely no discussion to be had, right?

What are everyone's thoughts?
Click to expand...
Geography
 
#21
#21
MoCo_Vol said:
Arizona hasn't beaten a ranked team in 2024....how crazy is that and this is supposed to be the 4th #1 seed? They lost to 21st ranked Washington State (their only game against a ranked team this year).

Best wins are at Duke (but it was the 2nd game of the year for them), vs Wisconsin, vs Bama (neutral court) all 3 happened before Christmas though.

I don't even know why or how they're SOS and SRS are as high as they are...

SRS they've played just 9 teams with a 15 or higher, and Michigan State has had a pretty bad year.


For comparison, we've played 11 teams with a 15 or higher. Seems like blue blood bias honestly, cause based on who they've played to end the season it doesn't seem to make much sense.

Our last 10 we're 8-2, lost to South Carolina (24-5) and lost at A&M (16-13)
Arizona's last 10 they're 9-1, lost at Washington State (23-7)

Their best wins were at Utah (18-11) and at Colorado (20-9) during that stretch. Our best wins were at Kentucky (21-8), vs Auburn (23-7), at Alabama (20-10)
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I hear what you’re saying, but their performance before January 1st is given just as much weight as their calendar year 2024 performance. We’re still talking about the same season and their non-conference games are still important, as are ours.
 
#22
#22
VolCalls said:
I hear what you’re saying, but their performance before January 1st is given just as much weight as their calendar year 2024 performance. We’re still talking about the same season and their non-conference games are still important, as are ours.
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Well let's look at that 2023 performance.

10-3 played 5 of their lowest SRS teams on their schedule in those 13 games, they did get that win at Duke and beat Bama on a neutral court, but they also lost to Purdue & FAU on a neutral court and then got blown out at Stanford (12-17).

If you look at the best teams they've faced (based on current records 20 or better wins)

Purdue - loss
Bama - win
Duke - win
Colorado - win x2
Washington State - loss x2
FAU - loss

So they've played 9 games against teams with 20 or more wins and went 5-4. We've played a total of 14 games against teams with 20 or more wins and we're currently 10-4 against them and have 2 more games left against 20 win teams, they face 2 sub 500 teams to end their season.


Arizona is a blue blood and beat Duke, that's basically the only reason they're even in the conversation to be a 1 seed.
 
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#23
#23
mrmax86 said:
Looking at ESPN:
On their page I see ONE top 25 opponent for them in conference play.
Looking at ours, I see SIX

Looking at NET (which is big for the selection committee):
They have two Quad 2 losses and and one Quad 3 loss. Nobody all the way down to 16th has one.
We have one Quad 1 loss. That's it.

Looking at KenPom:
Arizona 6th O, 14th D
Tennessee 19th O, 3rd D

The NET and strength of Conference play (the most recent measure of performance) both lean pretty heavily in our direction. Not really sure there is a discussion to be had about who should get the honor of the 4th #1 seed, unless we unravel. But, in my opinion, if we win our last 2, there is definitely no discussion to be had, right?

What are everyone's thoughts?
Click to expand...
They are not Tennessee!
 
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#24
#24
MoCo_Vol said:
Well let's look at that 2023 performance.

10-3 played 5 of their lowest SRS teams on their schedule in those 13 games, they did get that win at Duke and beat Bama on a neutral court, but they also lost to Purdue & FAU on a neutral court and then got blown out at Stanford (12-17).

If you look at the best teams they've faced (based on current records 20 or better wins)

Purdue - loss
Bama - win
Duke - win
Colorado - win x2
Washington State - loss x2
FAU - loss

So they've played 9 games against teams with 20 or more wins and went 5-4. We've played a total of 14 games against teams with 20 or more wins and we're currently 10-4 against them and have 2 more games left against 20 win teams, they face 2 sub 500 teams to end their season.


Arizona is a blue blood and beat Duke, that's basically the only reason they're even in the conversation to be a 1 seed.
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Again, I hear what you’re saying, but beating 20-win teams has nothing to do with the selection committee formula. I’m not advocating for them, but the NET criteria and Quad 1 wins are what both teams will primarily be judged on.

Also, Arizona is not a blue blood. That’s like saying Washington Football is a blue blood. Good program, but not close to blue blood status.
 
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