Future NFL draft picks –
I was listening to Mike Elko a couple of weeks ago and he said that it is commonly understood in the coaching profession that if you want to compete with the elite teams in college football you need to have 17 future NFL draft picks on your roster, i.e. 20% of the 85 scholarships.
Using the metrics 65% of top 100 recruits end up getting drafted, maybe 20% of lower 4-stars get drafted, and 10% of high 3-stars get drafted, I wanted to see how that might play out for us this year since I made the claim that this would be the most talented roster we have had in many years. This is jmo.
Note: Incoming transfers are assigned to the year we got them and their high school evaluation follows them throughout their college careers. I looked at how our guys have performed since and including the 2017 class.
In 2017 we signed two recruits that one or more services ranked as a top 100 recruit, Smith and Chandler. Both were drafted to the NFL.
In 2018 we signed three recruits that one or more services ranked as a top 100 recruit, Peterson, Emerson, and A. Taylor. Taylor was the only one drafted.
In 2019 we signed six recruits that one or more services ranked as a top 100 recruit, D. Wright, Morris, Crouch, To’o To’o, Gray, and A. Solomon. Four were drafted, Wright, Morris, To’o To’o, and Gray.
In 2020 we signed five recruits that one or more services ranked as a top 100 recruit, H. Bailey, Wideman, Lawrence, O. Thomas, and Cade Mays. Cade was drafted, Malachi is playing pro ball in Canada, Lawrence is at Ole Miss this year, Bailey is still at Louisville, and Big O is back on our DL for his super senior year.
In 2021 we signed four recruits that one or more services ranked as a top 100 recruit, Willis, Salter, Charles, and Turnage. After 2 years at Houston Willis is back in the transfer portal and still looking for his next gig (he has 2 years of eligibility remaining). Salter of course is balling out for Jamey Chadwell at Liberty, Charles is back for his redshirt junior year with us, and Turnage will suit up for Lane Kiffin this year.
In 2022 we signed five recruits that one or more services ranked as a top 100 recruit, Pearce, T. Jackson, Josephs, Webb, and B. McCoy. We still have all those guys except Tayven who is back home competing to be QB1 for the Hoosiers this year (5 starts last year).
In 2023 we signed seven recruits that one or more services ranked as a top 100 recruit, Iamaleava, Hobbs, Leacock, C. Herring, Seldon, Bradley, and Thornton. They’re all back for this year.
In 2024 we signed eight recruits that one or more services ranked as a top 100 recruit, M. Matthews, Staley, B. Carter, P. Lewis, Merklinger, Jordan Ross, Warren, and Lance Heard. Matthews, Staley, Carter, and Merklinger got to participate in the latter portion of bowl practice, Lance is enrolled and will participate in spring practice, Ross and Warren should be here for summer workouts, and Peyton is enrolled but recouping from some medical “clean up” work he had upon arrival.
All total right now we’re expected to have at least 21 former top 100 recruits on our roster this year. Around 65% of top 100 recruits on average get drafted to the NFL which suggests of this group we may have around 14 future NFL draft picks. It looks like we’ll have an additional 24 lower 4-stars of which close to 20% can be expected to have their names called on NFL draft day, so maybe an additional 5 future NFL draft picks. With high 3-stars and a good development staff around 10% can be expected to make the draft, so for us this year, maybe 4 more guys from this pool.
That’s a total of perhaps 23 future NFL draft picks on our roster for this year, as it stands right now. I think Mike Elko would say we can probably compete with anyone in the country. jmo.
Heupel said in his submission to the court in the case against the NCAA that recruiting had improved at Tennessee since he took over the program and it would have improved even more if not for those meddling idiots in Indianapolis. Okay, so he didn’t exactly call them idiots but that was how it read to me. jmo.
