Recruiting Football Talk VII

[Devo182]

Analytics or not. . . they tried to explain it. It was a terrible choice at the time. Why not kick the XP and when you wanna go for the win, just go for 2 when you score the next time? Leaves you with more options at the end.

Either way, it was a terrible choice, especially since they missed it and were forced to go for 2 if they did score again.

You have fewer options with the traditional route.

If you fail the 2 pt conversion after the 2nd TD, you've lost. Game over.

If you go with this strategy and fail the 2 pt attempt, then you have a 2nd attempt as well to go to OT.

You have to accomplish all the same things in either case, so better to have that information now rather than later and have more opportunities.

Here is the flowchart I've had for some years that makes it make sense:





And the EV of going for 2 down 8...becomes a clear GO through the late game stages

 

[Jack Burton]

I dismissed all of this when you said you ordered a pumpkin pie funnel cake.

It’s the harvest festival! The wife wanted it tbh.

Did you ride the lightning rod?

I did and it was awesome but afterward I realized I’m too old to get jostled around so much.

I saw a comedian short that killed. He simply said:

"Shout out to the girls who get full sleeves, but don't fix their teeth."

That’s kinda what I saw. That money could have been better spent elsewhere but whatever.

 

[drvenner]

Obviously have to let the rest of the season finish but I’m hoping this isn’t a trend for Heupel to screw the pooch on at least one game a year that takes us just far enough away from CFP contention…

I will take 11 wins every single year, thank you. When we go to an 8 team playoff, we could still screw the pooch and get in.

 

[avolation]

I wonder what McConaughey is smoking. Dude is on a different planet right now on college gameday.

 

[drvenner]

My thoughts on Dollywood after a 25 year absence:

Blazing Fury and River Rampage haven’t changed a lick.

People actually pay $32.99 for unlimited soda refills.

I’m too old for rollercoasters.

Tattoos have become a status symbol for poor people no offense.

They overcooked my pumpkin pie funnel cake.

The bar for attire is pretty low these days but don’t wear your gym clothes to theme parks.

The bald eagles are still rad.

You get everything you deserve for destroying the succulent goodness of a funnel cake by emasculating it with pumpkin pie.

 

[Jack Burton]

My first time ever last weekend. Had a blast. The Rampage looked ancient, but turned out to be my kids’ fav. The newest Big Bear Mountain was no joke. First real coaster I’ve ridden in > 25 years probably. Too old for that, but was fun with my kid.

But sooooo much money.

I didn’t get to do Big Bear or Eagles Something. My son was getting tired and didn’t want to wait. They looked great though.

 

[drvenner]

My first time ever last weekend. Had a blast. The Rampage looked ancient, but turned out to be my kids’ fav. The newest Big Bear Mountain was no joke. First real coaster I’ve ridden in > 25 years probably. Too old for that, but was fun with my kid.

But sooooo much money.

My daughter's favorite ride there is the Barnstormer. She loved it from the first time she rode it when she was about 7 or 8. I get motion sick pretty easily. I can normally do roller coasters OK, but that dang barnstormer sent me in a tizzy. It got to be our thing that we would go ride it first thing and then she would go play at the little playground while I sat down for about 30 minutes to shake it off, LOL. Still one of my favorite memories from she was young. Glad you all really enjoyed it.

 

[Enki_Amenra]

You have fewer options with the traditional route.

If you fail the 2 pt conversion after the 2nd TD, you've lost. Game over.

If you go with this strategy and fail the 2 pt attempt, then you have a 2nd attempt as well to go to OT.

You have to accomplish all the same things in either case, so better to have that information now rather than later and have more opportunities.

Here is the flowchart I've had for some years that makes it make sense:

View attachment 585111



And the EV of going for 2 down 8...becomes a clear GO through the late game stages
View attachment 585112

It is stupid. No amount of explaining can change that. At worst you're forced into a 2nd 2pt conversion if the first one fails. Depending on how the game feels, you may want the XP and overtime or possibly go for 2 & the win. They made the decision for 2 too early. It's the same as kicking an onside kick to open the game or after halftime, when you dont need to. Reminds me of Butch trying to explain the chart. . .

 

[Ashevolle]

My daughter's favorite ride there is the Barnstormer. She loved it from the first time she rode it when she was about 7 or 8. I get motion sick pretty easily. I can normally do roller coasters OK, but that dang barnstormer sent me in a tizzy. It got to be our thing that we would go ride it first thing and then she would go play at the little playground while I sat down for about 30 minutes to shake it off, LOL. Still one of my favorite memories from she was young. Glad you all really enjoyed it.

Dramamine became a must for me at theme parks a couple years ago.

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

I do have to give UF credit for one thing. . . when they see a coach isn't working out, they pull the trigger. I dont recall them ever really letting a coach hang around an extra year or 2 to see if he turns it around. Hopefully they face plant on the next hire too.

Yeah not hard to see Napier won't work out

It looks like he's trying to go the bully ball route and that just doesn't work unless you have nothing but freaks all over the line of scrimmage. They need a coach that will showcase their athletes.

Anyways

#Istandwithnapier

 

[drvenner]

 

[Jackcrevol]

My thoughts on Dollywood after a 25 year absence:

Blazing Fury and River Rampage haven’t changed a lick.

People actually pay $32.99 for unlimited soda refills.

I’m too old for rollercoasters.

Tattoos have become a status symbol for poor people no offense.

They overcooked my pumpkin pie funnel cake.

The bar for attire is pretty low these days but don’t wear your gym clothes to theme parks.

The bald eagles are still rad.

Roller Coasters are BA.

Blazing Fury is Americana.

Tattoos are chicque, and i dont get it.

dollywood atarr is always amazing!

 

[JohnnyD1024]

I saw an article saying that Ohio State would be without their starting running back against Maryland today. The article then mentioned two running backs that would get the bulk of the carries today, but neither of them were Dallan Hayden. So I looked up his stats for this season so far since he had a decent freshman season last year. He has zero carries this year and the only stat that he has is 1 reception for negative 2 yards, which happened in the first game of the season.

I know there were rumors of him transferring in the off-season, I wonder if it actually happens now.

 

[drvenner]

You have fewer options with the traditional route.

If you fail the 2 pt conversion after the 2nd TD, you've lost. Game over.

If you go with this strategy and fail the 2 pt attempt, then you have a 2nd attempt as well to go to OT.

You have to accomplish all the same things in either case, so better to have that information now rather than later and have more opportunities.

Here is the flowchart I've had for some years that makes it make sense:

View attachment 585111



And the EV of going for 2 down 8...becomes a clear GO through the late game stages
View attachment 585112

Your chart does not take into account that 2 point conversions are not converted at a 50% rate. They are converted less frequently.

 

[Outofmyvolcanmind]

Florida has had better results since 2010, but the difference between us and them for the past 12 years really isn’t all that great. Teams have been pretty meh and taken advantage of a weak east and perennial easy OOC scheduling.

Muschamp, McElwain and Mullen all got run out of Gainesville. Mullen was the best of the three, finishing top 10 twice, won the east once, then had one bad season. McElwain was terrible as his career since then has reflected. Muschamp is solid but limited and wasn’t ready for that job. History suggests new coach would get 2-4 years tops.

If Napier gets fired UF will probably be paying him and Mullen. The roster is not in very good shape. No QB. Schedule is rough. Admin and boosters angry. Gonna be a tough place to win and not one that will be real attractive for a top tier coach. We’ve seen first hand how this spiral goes. So I’m on board with Napier getting canned because I think it makes UF more dysfunctional and don’t think a new hire will be any better.

Be funny if Lane went to Florida and Gators had to pay both buyouts. Then Napier jump to Ole Miss for $1 a year for balance of his Florida contract and takes his current class with him.

 

[BJHSVol]

Your chart does not take into account that 2 point conversions are not converted at a 50% rate. They are converted less frequently.

Ncaa average is 41%- but that is also probably deflated a bit because of a bigger talent disparity/worse teams at the bottom. NFL average is 48% so I don’t think it’s that far off to assume a 50% conversion if you are an above average team and actually take time to practice 2pt plays

 

[VolGee4]

Your chart does not take into account that 2 point conversions are not converted at a 50% rate. They are converted less frequently.

In the NFL, the rate is almost a coin flip. Maybe it has to do with it being from the 2 yard line. Also, because the extra point rate has come down to like 95%, then the suggestion is that the two point rate only has to be half that- 47.5%- to equal it.

 

[Enki_Amenra]

Your chart does not take into account that 2 point conversions are not converted at a 50% rate. They are converted less frequently.

Plus the feel of the game. It was obviously a bad choice. Get that XP and keep the momentum going. Miss the 2pts and it stalled their mojo a bit. Going for 2 seemed like a pivotal play, when it could've been a simple XP.

 

[butchna]

I wonder what McConaughey is smoking. Dude is on a different planet right now on college gameday.

He never leaves that planet…simply visits this one on an astral plane.

 

[vols 30]

Some of older guys might remember, but didn't teams get 2 bye weeks when they played a 10 game schedule? Seems like that was the norm, but I could be wrong

 

[Dooby15]

Bro!..bye

View attachment 585067

 

[butchna]

Plus the feel of the game. It was obviously a bad choice. Get that XP and keep the momentum going. Miss the 2pts and it stalled their mojo a bit. Going for 2 seemed like a pivotal play, when it could've been a simple XP.

Football and it’s enduring quest to outsmart itself.

 

[Dooby15]

My thoughts on Dollywood after a 25 year absence:

Blazing Fury and River Rampage haven’t changed a lick.

People actually pay $32.99 for unlimited soda refills.

I’m too old for rollercoasters.

Tattoos have become a status symbol for poor people no offense.

They overcooked my pumpkin pie funnel cake.

The bar for attire is pretty low these days but don’t wear your gym clothes to theme parks.

The bald eagles are still rad.

Hop on the wild eagle.

 

[Enki_Amenra]

Texas or OU?

 

[Enki_Amenra]

Hop on the wild eagle.

TWSS?