Predict the regular season record

What will Tennessee’s record be?

  • 25-6 or better

    Votes: 68 31.6%

  • 24-7

    Votes: 51 23.7%

  • 23-8

    Votes: 52 24.2%

  • 22-9

    Votes: 23 10.7%

  • 21-10

    Votes: 10 4.7%

  • 20-11

    Votes: 7 3.3%

  • 19-12 or worse

    Votes: 4 1.9%
  • Total voters
    215
#26
#26
Dallasbowlin said:
I don’t see many opportunities for a loss. I think we drop one maybe two in the non-con, and two maybe three in the conference.
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You don’t see many “opportunities” for a loss? Not even a loss but opportunities? That’s a pretty brutal schedule we have, Dal. Let’s be real for a moment. Lots of lose-able games there.
 
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#27
#27
I voted 24-7; I think we lose 2-3 OOC games, split with UK, lose at Arky, lose at A&M and Bama.

Note: I actually kinda think we have Arkansas’ lack of shooting figured out so we may win by a lot on that one, but I’m predicting a loss since it is on the road and there will be a loss I don’t expect
 
#28
#28
I voted 24-7. I think a 2-1 showing against that talented Maui group would be solid. An OOC team like Illinois is tough, and the SEC schedule is brutal. KY looked ridiculously good in their exhibition games. They are loaded with talent at all 5 positions and as much as I hate to say it, they could turn into two losses. I really think the season will hinge on the Vols being as good defensively as they were last year. With a healthy ZZ and the additions to the team, I think the offense will be much improved. Looking forward to final four appearance.
 
#29
#29
I think we will be nearly unbeatable at home but there's always that one game against lesser competition. A lot of tough road and nuetral games on that schedule. 8-10 loses seems reasonable.
 
#30
#30
ColinS said:
I think we will be nearly unbeatable at home but there's always that one game against lesser competition. A lot of tough road and nuetral games on that schedule. 8-10 loses seems reasonable.
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10 regular season losses for this team would be significantly disappointing. That would likely mean that ZZ is late returning, isn't the same player, or that we struggled to replace him at PG.
 
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#31
#31
cncchris33 said:
10 regular season losses for this team would be significantly disappointing. That would likely mean that ZZ is late returning, isn't the same player, or that we struggled to replace him at PG.
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Only analytical model currently out that I’ve seen projects 22-9, missing that by 1 game wouldn’t qualify as significantly disappointing IMO. Of course if you’re expected them to go 26-5 or is, then I could see where 10 losses would seem bad.
 
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#33
#33
TheMookieMonster said:
You don’t see many “opportunities” for a loss? Not even a loss but opportunities? That’s a pretty brutal schedule we have, Dal. Let’s be real for a moment. Lots of lose-able games there.
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I meant losses lol. I have a very high opinion of this team. Imo they will be a top 5 team all year.
 
#35
#35
Was I the only one that put 6 losses only because the majority of others did so as well?

Only saying this because I legit don’t even see 6 losses on our schedule, I think we are that good, especially if ZZ comes back 100
 
#36
#36
bleedingTNorange said:
Only analytical model currently out that I’ve seen projects 22-9, missing that by 1 game wouldn’t qualify as significantly disappointing IMO. Of course if you’re expected them to go 26-5 or is, then I could see where 10 losses would seem bad.
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You seem confident that ZZ is going to be back strong and healthy, IIRC.

Despite that singular model, this is a preseason top-8 team which returns more experience and production than 95% of teams in the country and adds a top-10 recruiting class (counting FD5), and filled holes with a couple nice transfers.

Losing 33% of their regular season games would be disappointing, IMO. There is no way we will be dogs in 10 games, so that is what I'm basing it off of.

Again, that's all based on an assumption ZZ is healthy and ready to contribute from day 1, which I'm not convinced of, but am going to operate on until we hear differently in an official capacity.

I can get on board with 10 total losses including the SECT and NCAAT, but not regular season. This should be Barnes's most talented and deepest team.
 
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#37
#37
I am in dire need of a championship from one of my teams. The Bears are nowhere close, and our football team is probably a year or two away.

Our basketball team is my best chance. This team is absolutely loaded. I think we finish 25-6 and then head into the tournament 28-6 after winning the SECT and finally get a number 1 seed.
 
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#38
#38
TrippieRedd said:
Was I the only one that put 6 losses only because the majority of others did so as well?

Only saying this because I legit don’t even see 6 losses on our schedule, I think we are that good, especially if ZZ comes back 100
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When’s the last time that Tennessee didn’t drop 1 or 2 at the very least that they were favored in/expected to win?
 
#39
#39
cncchris33 said:
You seem confident that ZZ is going to be back strong and healthy, IIRC.

Despite that singular model, this is a preseason top-8 team which returns more experience and production than 95% of teams in the country and adds a top-10 recruiting class (counting FD5), and filled holes with a couple nice transfers.

Losing 33% of their regular season games would be disappointing, IMO. There is no way we will be dogs in 10 games, so that is what I'm basing it off of.

Again, that's all based on an assumption ZZ is healthy and ready to contribute from day 1, which I'm not convinced of, but am going to operate on until we hear differently in an official capacity.

I can get on board with 10 total losses including the SECT and NCAAT, but not regular season. This should be Barnes's most talented and deepest team.
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These were final regular season records for some “Top 10ish” teams last year:
Kansas 25-6
Marquette 25-6
Arizona 25-6
Xavier 23-8
Texas 23-8
Kansas State 23-8
Baylor 22-9

I post that to show that even at 22-9/23-8, with the tough slate they’ve got that would still likely qualify them right around that Top 10 mark.

I’m with you in that I don’t think Tennessee will be underdogs in 10+ games, but that’s also not how mathematical projections work. You aren’t going to be expected to win every game you are 1-3 point favorites in, so while Tennessee may be favored in say ~25 games, they won’t be projected to go 25-6 by any analytical projection I don’t think. Again, 31 games is a long season, and teams almost always drop 1-2 they shouldn’t.
 
#40
#40
bleedingTNorange said:
These were final regular season records for some “Top 10ish” teams last year:
Kansas 25-6
Marquette 25-6
Arizona 25-6
Xavier 23-8
Texas 23-8
Kansas State 23-8
Baylor 22-9

I post that to show that even at 22-9/23-8, with the tough slate they’ve got that would still likely qualify them right around that Top 10 mark.

I’m with you in that I don’t think Tennessee will be underdogs in 10+ games, but that’s also not how mathematical projections work. You aren’t going to be expected to win every game you are 1-3 point favorites in, so while Tennessee may be favored in say ~25 games, they won’t be projected to go 25-6 by any analytical projection I don’t think. Again, 31 games is a long season, and teams almost always drop 1-2 they shouldn’t.
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Well, Baylor was kind of an outlier last year. And would be in a lot of years I suspect. I don’t think 9 losses would result in us being a Top-10 team this year, IMO. Especially considering the SEC still isn’t perceived to be nearly as strong as the Big 12 so I think when it comes to seeding and perception a 9-loss TN team is a 4-seed at best which would be disappointing in the context of what our expectations are pre-season.
 
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#41
#41
TheMookieMonster said:
Well, Baylor was kind of an outlier last year. And would be in a lot of years I suspect. I don’t think 9 losses would result in us being a Top-10 team this year, IMO. Especially considering the SEC still isn’t perceived to be nearly as strong as the Big 12 so I think when it comes to seeding and perception a 9-loss TN team is a 4-seed at best which would be disappointing in the context of what our expectations are pre-season.
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Every year is different, so no way to know for sure, but I did also include 23-8, which Xavier was and clearly not a team playing the B12 obviously…was they were perceived as a Top 10ish team.
 
#42
#42
bleedingTNorange said:
Every year is different, so no way to know for sure, but I did also include 23-8, which Xavier was and clearly not a team playing the B12 obviously…was they were perceived as a Top 10ish team.
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Yes but 23-8 is not 21-10. The point Chris was making is that 10 losses would not be acceptable or would be at least disappointing considering the pre-season expectations of being a Top 10 team. 2 extra losses is a big difference. But as you said every season is different. I just don’t think 10 losses would be a success. We had 9 losses in the regular season last year and most people considered that regular season a failure. I think people expect this team to be better than that team and so 9-10 losses in the regular season is a disappointment.
 
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#43
#43
TheMookieMonster said:
Yes but 23-8 is not 21-10. The point Chris was making is that 10 losses would not be acceptable or would be at least disappointing considering the pre-season expectations of being a Top 10 team. 2 extra losses is a big difference. But as you said every season is different. I just don’t think 10 losses would be a success. We had 9 losses in the regular season last year and most people considered that regular season a failure. I think people expect this team to be better than that team and so 9-10 losses in the regular season is a disappointment.
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Maybe it was his use of “significantly disappointing” that is what caused my opinion, that to me at least seems to suggest it’s quite a bit more than just a bit of a disappointment. My point on that was that projections say 22-9 which by all accounts would have Tennessee right around the Top 10 still, saying 1 more loss than that would be “significantly disappointing” was just a take I disagreed with, to each their own. To me 21-10 likely means you’re still right around the Top 15, given I’ve seen preseason polls have us from 6-14 I have a tough time considering that “significantly disappointing”…but again, if that’s your opinion that’s fine, I just disagree.
 
#44
#44
bleedingTNorange said:
Maybe it was his use of “significantly disappointing” that is what caused my opinion, that to me at least seems to suggest it’s quite a bit more than just a bit of a disappointment. My point on that was that projections say 22-9 which by all accounts would have Tennessee right around the Top 10 still, saying 1 more loss than that would be “significantly disappointing” was just a take I disagreed with, to each their own. To me 21-10 likely means you’re still right around the Top 15, given I’ve seen preseason polls have us from 6-14 I have a tough time considering that “significantly disappointing”…but again, if that’s your opinion that’s fine, I just disagree.
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Which is fair. Many will consider 22-9/21-10 a success. And that’s fine for them to be okay with that. Everyone’s expectations for this team will be different.

I think for me the disappointment is also context specific. Last year’s team and this year’s team are very likely going to be the two deepest and most experienced/talented rosters on paper we have had under Barnes and maybe will have considering he doesn’t have many years left. So, if the best those teams can do is 22-9 and 21-10 respectively, then that is disappointing.
 
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#45
#45
bleedingTNorange said:
Maybe it was his use of “significantly disappointing” that is what caused my opinion, that to me at least seems to suggest it’s quite a bit more than just a bit of a disappointment. My point on that was that projections say 22-9 which by all accounts would have Tennessee right around the Top 10 still, saying 1 more loss than that would be “significantly disappointing” was just a take I disagreed with, to each their own. To me 21-10 likely means you’re still right around the Top 15, given I’ve seen preseason polls have us from 6-14 I have a tough time considering that “significantly disappointing”…but again, if that’s your opinion that’s fine, I just disagree.
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The difference in 8 losses and 10 losses is a difference of .742 and .678 winning%. Call it what you want, but that is a significant difference, to me. 8 losses is ok, 10 is a disappointment. 9 is a slight disappointment. This team has too much experience, depth, and talent to lose more than 8 regular season games if ZZ is ready to go on day 1.

Last years team lost 9, year before was 7, year before that was 7. If we agree that this team has the experience, depth, and talent we expect, no reason to find double-digit regular season losses as an acceptable outcome.
 
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#46
#46
TheMookieMonster said:
Which is fair. Many will consider 22-9/21-10 a success. And that’s fine for them to be okay with that. Everyone’s expectations for this team will be different.

I think for me the disappointment is also context specific. Last year’s team and this year’s team are very likely going to be the two deepest and most experienced/talented rosters on paper we have had under Barnes and maybe will have considering he doesn’t have many years left. So, if the best those teams can do is 22-9 and 21-10 respectively, then that is disappointing.
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I voted 23-8 so obviously I’m also just a notch above projections as well, so I am high on this team also, but I have watched CBB for far too long to “EXPECT” a team to not drop a game or 2 that they shouldn’t…between tough road environments and injuries it’s borderline unheard of to not at least drop 1 or 2 that you don’t “expect” to.

As well all know by now it’s a March sport, they could go 21-10 and get in as a 4/5 seed, make the first ever Final Four and I doubt many folks would refer to it as a disappointing season.
 
#47
#47
cncchris33 said:
The difference in 8 losses and 10 losses is a difference of .742 and .678 winning%. Call it what you want, but that is a significant difference, to me. 8 losses is ok, 10 is a disappointment. 9 is a slight disappointment. This team has too much experience, depth, and talent to lose more than 8 regular season games if ZZ is ready to go on day 1.

Last years team lost 9, year before was 7, year before that was 7. If we agree that this team has the experience, depth, and talent we expect, no reason to find double-digit regular season losses as an acceptable outcome.
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Don’t want to nit pick back and forth over 1 or 2 games max, projections (thus a fair expectation) says 22-9, I don’t think it’s fair to say that 1 game below that is significantly disappointing. I don’t feel like going back and looking, but we’ve got likely 7 HM/P5 opponents OOC, I feel like that’s possibly a high under Barnes, at least in recent years….if that is indeed the case then comparing to previous years schedule isn’t totally fair and expecting an extra loss or two would seem plausible. Again, I listed many team in that 8-10 loss range that were also considered Top 10 teams still at the end of the year, so if 21-9/21-10 results in a Top 10ish type end of season standing (in line for a 2-3 seed) that would be really hard for me to consider it a disappointment/significantly disappoint season. JMO
 
#48
#48
bleedingTNorange said:
I voted 23-8 so obviously I’m also just a notch above projections as well, so I am high on this team also, but I have watched CBB for far too long to “EXPECT” a team to not drop a game or 2 that they shouldn’t…between tough road environments and injuries it’s borderline unheard of to not at least drop 1 or 2 that you don’t “expect” to.

As well all know by now it’s a March sport, they could go 21-10 and get in as a 4/5 seed, make the first ever Final Four and I doubt many folks would refer to it as a disappointing season.
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Well, the title of this thread is “Predict Regular Season Record.” So I’m not really taking into account the post-season in this discussion. By all accounts, 22-9/21-10 regular season record for a team that on average is ranked #7/#8 by the polls would be disappointing.
 
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#49
#49
bleedingTNorange said:
Don’t want to nit pick back and forth over 1 or 2 games max, projections (thus a fair expectation) says 22-9, I don’t think it’s fair to say that 1 game below that is significantly disappointing. I don’t feel like going back and looking, but we’ve got likely 7 HM/P5 opponents OOC, I feel like that’s possibly a high under Barnes, at least in recent years….if that is indeed the case then comparing to previous years schedule isn’t totally fair and expecting an extra loss or two would seem plausible. Again, I listed many team in that 8-10 loss range that were also considered Top 10 teams still at the end of the year, so if 21-9/21-10 results in a Top 10ish type end of season standing (in line for a 2-3 seed) that would be really hard for me to consider it a disappointment/significantly disappoint season. JMO
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Correction...projection (singular). And I don't care about that singular projection. I think it's wrong. My opinion. I'm fine with you disagreeing with it, but to me, 10 regular season losses is disappointing.
 
#50
#50
TheMookieMonster said:
Well, the title of this thread is “Predict Regular Season Record.” So I’m not really taking into account the post-season in this discussion. By all accounts, 22-9/21-10 regular season record for a team that on average is ranked #7/#8 by the polls would be disappointing.
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Last year 22-9 was good for #10 last year for Baylor at the end of the regular season, but allow #14 for Tennessee…as I’ve mentioned our SOS looks like it could very well be better, Barttorvik projects 22-9 and that’s with us being 6th in his ranking, so clearly he views us as one of those teams with a crazy SOS that would be ranked higher than most with that number of losses.
 
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