Vols -5.5 vs Gators

[BallerVolFan]

Before the Texas game, I looked at the games following and saw this game right after. On the road after a big game, I expected this one to maybe be a little closer than most would expect it to be. Then Vegas has us listed as 5.5 point favorites and my nerves already have started creeping in. This is a game, on paper, that we should 100% win. But Florida is in the spot where they need quite a few wins in order to even be in discussion for entering the bubble. They’re coming off a loss on the road and have a bounce back spot vs the #2 team in the country on their home floor. Florida will be the best SEC defense we have played up to this point, based off metrics and analytics. We got the horses to win this one decisively, but if we don’t come ready, this could get interesting. It shouldn’t, but it very well could.

 

[Volfan1000]

Before the Texas game, I looked at the games following and saw this game right after. On the road after a big game, I expected this one to maybe be a little closer than most would expect it to be. Then Vegas has us listed as 5.5 point favorites and my nerves already have started creeping in. This is a game, on paper, that we should 100% win. But Florida is in the spot where they need quite a few wins in order to even be in discussion for entering the bubble. They’re coming off a loss on the road and have a bounce back spot vs the #2 team in the country on their home floor. Florida will be the best SEC defense we have played up to this point, based off metrics and analytics. We got the horses to win this one decisively, but if we don’t come ready, this could get interesting. It shouldn’t, but it very well could.

Castleton is the main Florida player that we have to hound from the jump and we always have played against Florida very well even when Billy Donovan had them rolling.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

You mention analytics but then also dismiss them when talking about the spread, and are shocked by 5.5 number. That’s pretty much in line with what analytic projections think, they definitely don’t think 100% Vol win as you stated, more in the 75-80% category.

 

[ColinS]

Before the Texas game, I looked at the games following and saw this game right after. On the road after a big game, I expected this one to maybe be a little closer than most would expect it to be. Then Vegas has us listed as 5.5 point favorites and my nerves already have started creeping in. This is a game, on paper, that we should 100% win. But Florida is in the spot where they need quite a few wins in order to even be in discussion for entering the bubble. They’re coming off a loss on the road and have a bounce back spot vs the #2 team in the country on their home floor. Florida will be the best SEC defense we have played up to this point, based off metrics and analytics. We got the horses to win this one decisively, but if we don’t come ready, this could get interesting. It shouldn’t, but it very well could.

Nobody that's followed college basketball more than five minutes sees this as an easy game. We need a good start then maybe we can separate. If we start slow it will be a 40 minute battle.

 

[KTrain]

Castleton is the main Florida player that we have to hound from the jump and we always have played against Florida very well even when Billy Donovan had them rolling.

Be interesting to see how ORN plays, seems like when D has over 6' 9" guys his O is not as good. Castleton & reserve Jitobah are 6' 11", hoping ORN can keep his game consistently scoring and rebounding somewhere around 10 to 12 & 4 to 6 rebounds' the rest of year.

 

[CAVPUT]

Before the Texas game, I looked at the games following and saw this game right after. On the road after a big game, I expected this one to maybe be a little closer than most would expect it to be. Then Vegas has us listed as 5.5 point favorites and my nerves already have started creeping in. This is a game, on paper, that we should 100% win. But Florida is in the spot where they need quite a few wins in order to even be in discussion for entering the bubble. They’re coming off a loss on the road and have a bounce back spot vs the #2 team in the country on their home floor. Florida will be the best SEC defense we have played up to this point, based off metrics and analytics. We got the horses to win this one decisively, but if we don’t come ready, this could get interesting. It shouldn’t, but it very well could.

I always look for "trap" games on the schedule and this one is a prime and I mean PRIME candidate to be just that. You have to think there's going to be a letdown by the Vols. ON has a career day. and consistency has not been his forte. We rise to #2. It's a mid week game before a big weekend matchup. Everyone is looking ahead and we're feelin' sassy. UF is desperate. A win vs UT would be a huge plus on the post season resume for UF. Yeah, this one has all the markings of an upset. I almost expect it to be honest. The one thing we have is experience. These veteran players and coaches also know what's coming. If they've got the character to avoid a letdown and pull off a road win tonight, it would be most impressive and a very good sign for the post season.

 

[CAVPUT]

Be interesting to see how ORN plays, seems like when D has over 6' 9" guys his O is not as good. Castleton & reserve Jitobah are 6' 11", hoping ORN can keep his game consistently scoring and rebounding somewhere around 10 to 12 & 4 to 6 rebounds' the rest of year.

If he were a younger player, I'd share your sentiments, but this is a veteran player. You pretty much who you are at this point. Not saying the light hasn't come on for him, but I expect ON to pull his Houdini routine once again tonight. Hoping Aidoo and Phillips have a comeback game and it's enough to carry the day.

 

[YankeeVol]

You mention analytics but then also dismiss them when talking about the spread, and are shocked by 5.5 number. That’s pretty much in line with what analytic projections think, they definitely don’t think 100% Vol win as you stated, more in the 75-80% category.

ESPN has the Vols @ 80.4% chance of winning

 

[WillisWG]

8-2 against FL in the last 10, winning the last 3. Those 2 losses were @ Florida and we're 1-4 in the last 5 there. A SEC road W in February won't come easy.

So Go Big Orange!

 

[Vol49er]

I'm kind of worried tonight honestly. My bold take is if we win tonight we'll be #1 on Monday (because I expect to beat Auburn at home and I think Indiana upsets Purdue)

 

[JohnWardForever]

I'm kind of worried tonight honestly. My bold take is if we win tonight we'll be #1 on Monday (because I expect to beat Auburn at home and I think Indiana upsets Purdue)

So how many would Tennessee win by at TBA? 12-15? Home court is worth 10 among good teams and Fla needs this badly. This will be a nail biter. Go Vols!

 

[bleedingTNorange]

So how many would Tennessee win by at TBA? 12-15? Home court is worth 10 among good teams and Fla needs this badly. This will be a nail biter. Go Vols!

Home court is not even close to 10pts, depending on venue 2-3 is more accurate.

 

[VOLtaism]

SEC road game and anything can happen. Keep the intensity very high on both sides of the ball and play deep rotations.I don't think any SEC team can match their intensity when they come with it.

 

[JohnWardForever]

Home court is not even close to 10pts, depending on venue 2-3 is more accurate.

Ok then. I recommend you to examine MOST Conference Head to Heads Home and away scores and get back to me. And explain how one team wins by double digits at home and loses by double digits on the road. I bet CBB , and have studied it for years. Go ahead and research it. 80% of the time (with comparable talented teams) home court is a 10 point difference. Rutgers just beat Psu by 20 @ Home. PSU will likely beat Rut @ Home. Tulane beat Tulsa by 16 @ Home, LOST by 2 @ Tulsa. Bradley beat UIC by 34 @ Home and 7 on the road. (31 Point Difference) You tell me. If this game was in Knoxville, Tenn would be a 12-15 point Favorite, so why is it 5? That's not 2-3 points for Home Court. Bama lost Big @ Okie, and Pounded Vandy by Fiddy. You think Okie could beat Bama @ Bama? EVER? Nyet.

 

[Houstonvol1]

Ok then. I recommend you to examine MOST Conference Head to Heads Home and away scores and get back to me. And explain how one team wins by double digits at home and loses by double digits on the road. I bet CBB , and have studied it for years. Go ahead and research it. 80% of the time (with comparable talented teams) home court is a 10 point difference. Rutgers just beat Psu by 20 @ Home. PSU will likely beat Rut @ Home. Tulane beat Tulsa by 16 @ Home, LOST by 2 @ Tulsa. Bradley beat UIC by 34 @ Home and 7 on the road. (31 Point Difference) You tell me. If this game was in Knoxville, Tenn would be a 12-15 point Favorite, so why is it 5? That's not 2-3 points for Home Court. Bama lost Big @ Okie, and Pounded Vandy by Fiddy. You think Okie could beat Bama @ Bama? EVER? Nyet.

Statistically its about 3 points across all college teams. This number however is not specific for a team and doesn't indicate the standard deviation, which is probably pretty wide. If you look at many of the computer models like Sagarin for example, we are about a 9 point favorite and lose 3 points for being away. The 6 point advantage is only an average. It doesn't indicate the size of the variation. If we played them 10 times at home and 10 times away then the statistics would make more sense. Widely variable but around a 3 point difference of home vs away.

 

[JohnWardForever]

Statistically its about 3 points across all college teams. This number however is not specific for a team and doesn't indicate the standard deviation, which is probably pretty wide. If you look at many of the computer models like Sagarin for example, we are about a 9 point favorite and lose 3 points for being away. The 6 point advantage is only an average. It doesn't indicate the size of the variation. If we played them 10 times at home and 10 times away then the statistics would make more sense. Widely variable but around a 3 point difference of home vs away.

Stats don't consider sleeping in your own bed, eating your fav food, shooting on your goals that you know very well, and Listening to the Home crowd boo the hell out of the opponent. I just listed a few overwhelming scoring results H@A, and there are many more. Tenn would be favored by 15 tonight if at home. . I don't worry about Sagarin or Kenpom, I do my own homework. AND rarely play Road teams., esp Road Favorites.

 

[BallerVolFan]

You mention analytics but then also dismiss them when talking about the spread, and are shocked by 5.5 number. That’s pretty much in line with what analytic projections think, they definitely don’t think 100% Vol win as you stated, more in the 75-80% category.

Analytically, they are the best defense we have played, yes. I wasn’t saying I didn’t expect it to be close. I actually thought the opposite. I mentioned us coming off a big game and then coming off a road loss, so I thought it would be closer than some would expect. For anyone that has watched both teams, most people would say this is a game we “should” win. But I felt before the line was released that it would be a closer game than some would think. My statement of 100% wasn’t really the chance I was giving them, was just a mere statement of what I thought most people would expect. Even though it is a Q1 game, I wouldn’t look at it as a “good” loss if it were to happen.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Ok then. I recommend you to examine MOST Conference Head to Heads Home and away scores and get back to me. And explain how one team wins by double digits at home and loses by double digits on the road. I bet CBB , and have studied it for years. Go ahead and research it. 80% of the time (with comparable talented teams) home court is a 10 point difference. Rutgers just beat Psu by 20 @ Home. PSU will likely beat Rut @ Home. Tulane beat Tulsa by 16 @ Home, LOST by 2 @ Tulsa. Bradley beat UIC by 34 @ Home and 7 on the road. (31 Point Difference) You tell me. If this game was in Knoxville, Tenn would be a 12-15 point Favorite, so why is it 5? That's not 2-3 points for Home Court. Bama lost Big @ Okie, and Pounded Vandy by Fiddy. You think Okie could beat Bama @ Bama? EVER? Nyet.

You clearly have no clue wtf you are talking about

 

[BACKDOC]

So how many would Tennessee win by at TBA? 12-15? Home court is worth 10 among good teams and Fla needs this badly. This will be a nail biter. Go Vols!

How many nail biters have we had this year?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Stats don't consider sleeping in your own bed, eating your fav food, shooting on your goals that you know very well, and Listening to the Home crowd boo the hell out of the opponent. I just listed a few overwhelming scoring results H@A, and there are many more. Tenn would be favored by 15 tonight if at home. . I don't worry about Sagarin or Kenpom, I do my own homework. AND rarely play Road teams., esp Road Favorites.

Tennessee played Mississippi State in Knoxville, the line was Vols -9.5, so when we went to their place it should’ve been a pick em’ according to you, right? Well in Starkville the line was Vols -6, a 3.5 point difference.

Tennessee played Vanderbilt in Knoxville, the line was Vols -18…when we travel to Nashville and play Vanderbilt you’re saying the line will be Vols -8 or less?

 

[JohnWardForever]

Tennessee played Mississippi State in Knoxville, the line was Vols -9.5, so when we went to their place it should’ve been a pick em’ according to you, right? Well in Starkville the line was Vols -6, a 3.5 point difference.

Tennessee played Vanderbilt in Knoxville, the line was Vols -18…when we travel to Nashville and play Vanderbilt you’re saying the line will be Vols -8 or less?

I don't have the time to show you all my examples. Obviously Rival Games are an exception; But I'd say UT will be favored by no more than 10 @ Vandy. For every opposing stat, I can give you 5 that back my assertion . MOF, I did that. Have a good one.

 

[JohnWardForever]

How many nail biters have we had this year?

Not many ; even Kentucky L wasn't one. But we will see some the latter part of the SEC Schedule @ Uk, Auburn, And H Vs Ala. And if UF is to make some hay, this is the game they need. I hope The VOLS blow em out. But Just Win It!

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I don't have the time to show you all my examples. Obviously Rival Games are an exception; But I'd say UT will be favored by no more than 10 @ Vandy. For every opposing stat, I can give you 5 that back my assertion . MOF, I did that. Have a good one.

You’re wrong and making yourself look foolish

 

[Hulavol]

I’d lay the 5.5 /
The Vols are gonna blow their freakin’ doors off. We got a dude on offense who has just had the light bulb turn on. Vols by 20.

 

[cardvolfan]

Before the Texas game, I looked at the games following and saw this game right after. On the road after a big game, I expected this one to maybe be a little closer than most would expect it to be. Then Vegas has us listed as 5.5 point favorites and my nerves already have started creeping in. This is a game, on paper, that we should 100% win. But Florida is in the spot where they need quite a few wins in order to even be in discussion for entering the bubble. They’re coming off a loss on the road and have a bounce back spot vs the #2 team in the country on their home floor. Florida will be the best SEC defense we have played up to this point, based off metrics and analytics. We got the horses to win this one decisively, but if we don’t come ready, this could get interesting. It shouldn’t, but it very well could.

Actually, Mississippi State was #6 when we played them initially and Florida is #10 today. But, they are solid defensively.