‘23 FL RB Mark Fletcher (OSU Decommit)

[T2P_Priceless]

When Heupel ceases to put a quality team on the field, and it is clear that he cannot because he recruits poorly, then let's all worry. In the meantime, can we not just enjoy where we are and trust that Heupel knows how to build a quality team?

Of course we can. But we need to start pulling in top 5 and at least consensus top 10 classes consistently to stay at the top. It just makes the coaching and game calling so much easier

 

[LittleVol]

This is as shoddy as argument can possibly be. Just because there's one coach that is squandering a lot of talent does not mean talent doesn't matter.

There are articles online, and on this forum, that break down national champions both for the BCS era and the playoff era. Not one of the teams that won it all in either of those eras wasn't consistently at or near the top in recruiting for multiple years prior to winning their championship(s). Not one.
And every time the committee throws a pity party and lets a lesser-talented team with an inferior strength of schedule into the playoff, like they did with Cincinnati last year, they get run out of the stadium by the four- and five-stars.

The level of ignorance in this thread is astounding.

Don't call it shoddy. I haven't said anything bad about your argument.

You -like many others- make the mistake of placing value on stars.

Are all 4 stars the same? Are all 5 stars the same?
You just mentioned that 63 out of 100 5 star players get drafted.
Uhm...that shows that not all of them are equal. Right?

Yet, how many 3 stars get drafted??. 37 5 stars didn't get drafted....yet 126, 3 stars did?? Do you see the problem with that thinking??

Here's the problem with you and those like. You LITERALLY think a star ranking makes a prospect talented.

Those kids at UGA, Clemson Bama got those ranking because they were offered there and went there.

Todd Gurley was a 3 star the beginning of his SR season at Tarborro. By the end he was a 5 star. Did suddenly get much more talented over the season?

 

[LittleVol]

DB and QB seem to be looking fine. However... DL specifically DT and LB are still very suspect. And totally non-existent at RB. We need bigtime help at RB. We have maybe ONE legit RB on the roster now. The 3 star UK decommit would be nice, but he's not the elite RB that could take this offense to the next level, IMO. Although the kid from VA may be converted to RB when he gets here. He has better looking film running the ball than anyone we have on the roster now.

There's so much potential in our class.
You just mentioned Khalifa Keith. Did you know he OUTRUSHED Quinshon Judkins in 2021? The same Judkins tearing it up at a Ole Miss as a true freshman in 2022. Also a 3 star. And Cam Seldon didn't camp and plays in small school VA. But he's 6'2 220 runs 4.3 40. 10.7 100 meter verified and can play WR and RB (Will play both) and YOUR'E RIGHT ABOUT HIM LOOKING BETTER AT RB. He's a 5 star RB imo..

As for DT again, you're looking at numbers of players committed vs what the TEAM NEEDS. We have Top 150 player in Weathersby at DT/SDE. Top 250 player in Duncan at DT. And now Hobbs pretty soon.
- Look at our roster now at DL. Then add these guys for 2023 roster.

LB? We have two very solid LB commits. Smith out of Grayson is one of the best defenders in the state of Georgia. Telander ain't bad either. And if we get Arion Carter then that is as good a LB class that any team could have. Smith is a LSU, UGA, Bama type LB.

You already said DB and QB is fine.
No. They are exceptional for our class.
We have THE BEST QB. It's not just "fine "

You and others are viewing recruiting from a very shallow perspective. No offense to you

 

[DarthVol1]

 

[lifeisdeep]

So define the reliability of the stars when there up to 300 4 stars and only 93 get drafted while well over 100 NON 4-5 star do get drafted. Repeating..... more less than 4 star guys get drafted than the combination of 4 and 5 stars. Are you saying this in not the case?

No argument the 5 stars and the upper reaches of the 4 star group, those I call no-brainers that developed early and played where they could easily be evaluated, are high probability NFL talent, BUT BUT BUT more than 100 3 star and below guys develop through their college careers and get drafted while on average 150 to 200 4 stars do not. Lots of them do so at way down the NCAA food chain schools but are found by NFL scouts and play on Sundays. It is not like our staff is throwing darts at the 3 star pool to make their offers. They are trying to mine the service misses in that pool while avoiding over valued or bad fit 4 stars per their evaluations.

It is not the number of 4 stars AL and GA sign each year that give them the leg up, it is which 4 stars and the mix that they sign.

If you can’t grasp the difference between a pool of people who succeed at a 40% rate in their field compared to a pool of people who succeed at a 5% rate, you can’t intelligently discuss recruiting.

I’ll go out on a limb and venture you have never run a business. Try running a company with the 5% pool and see how that goes for you.

 

[lifeisdeep]

Don't call it shoddy. I haven't said anything bad about your argument.

You -like many others- make the mistake of placing value on stars.

Are all 4 stars the same? Are all 5 stars the same?
You just mentioned that 63 out of 100 5 star players get drafted.
Uhm...that shows that not all of them are equal. Right?

Yet, how many 3 stars get drafted??. 37 5 stars didn't get drafted....yet 126, 3 stars did?? Do you see the problem with that thinking??

Here's the problem with you and those like. You LITERALLY think a star ranking makes a prospect talented.

Those kids at UGA, Clemson Bama got those ranking because they were offered there and went there.

Todd Gurley was a 3 star the beginning of his SR season at Tarborro. By the end he was a 5 star. Did suddenly get much more talented over the season?

What you’re arguing is every bit as sound as the flat earth theory.

 

[LittleVol]

What you’re arguing is every bit as sound as the flat earth theory.

Now you're just being stupid...
we're done.

 

[DMichel123]

There are a million cases of "diamonds in the rough" making it bigtime, but there are 2 million cases of 5 stars becoming 1st round NFL draft picks. I'll take my chances with the 5 stars.

Ummm your math isn't adding up. Two million?!?!

 

[GUNTERSVOL]

There are a million cases of "diamonds in the rough" making it bigtime, but there are 2 million cases of 5 stars becoming 1st round NFL draft picks. I'll take my chances with the 5 stars.

Got it, after the 63% yield off those 30 5 stars are off the board what next? Last year the NFL drafted, as I have already shared, more NON 4-5 stars than 4-5 stars in the 250+ picks. It is amazing how many low star guys pass the 4 stars when they get to college training tables and weight rooms and get coached up as they complete their more delayed maturation process. Freaks are freaks and those that start shaving in the 6th grade can earn their lofty rankings fair and square by being bigger and faster, but late bloomers that only Kreskin could identify in HS, pass 60% of them on draft day if they have the right mix of tangibles and intangibles. Which group will advance your program more? As a group 4 stars have a higher floor, but no guarantee on the ceiling. It really gets down to the ceiling and each staff can narrow down a pool of lower star guys with some synergy and conduct a better more intense evaluation of them than the services can. Bet there are some interesting discussions in the war room.

Celebrating or looking for a bridge on signing day is just a bit premature. Gotta stick around and see how your staff's evaluation skills grade out in acquiring the right players out of each star group. Avoid the 4 star misses and add the right 3 stars and life can be good. Portal has now blurred the importance of that day even more. There are new solutions to some risk taking.

 

[CAVPUT]

Got it, after the 63% yield off those 30 5 stars are off the board what next? Last year the NFL drafted, as I have already shared, more NON 4-5 stars than 4-5 stars in the 250+ picks. It is amazing how many low star guys pass the 4 stars when they get to college training tables and weight rooms and get coached up as they complete their more delayed maturation process. Freaks are freaks and those that start shaving in the 6th grade can earn their lofty rankings fair and square by being bigger and faster, but late bloomers that only Kreskin could identify in HS, pass 60% of them on draft day if they have the right mix of tangibles and intangibles. Which group will advance your program more? As a group 4 stars have a higher floor, but no guarantee on the ceiling. It really gets down to the ceiling and each staff can narrow down a pool of lower star guys with some synergy and conduct a better more intense evaluation of them than the services can. Bet there are some interesting discussions in the war room.

Celebrating or looking for a bridge on signing day is just a bit premature. Gotta stick around and see how your staff's evaluation skills grade out in acquiring the right players out of each star group. Avoid the 4 star misses and add the right 3 stars and life can be good. Portal has now blurred the importance of that day even more. There are new solutions to some risk taking.

Do I hear 63.4%? Gawd, I love math and percentages with coffee in the early morning!

 

[barrylee]

Oh wow, another argument on stars! I'm sure we'll settle it this time..

 

[BigALWiLson]

Some miserable people in here that will never be happy. You speak of needing upgrades in players. Sure would be nice, just about as nice having upgrades in some of our fan base. Your pathetic, let the Coaches who get paid determine who we need. Especially considering.. this season and the turnaround that has been done. It's not imaginary. Go Vols

 

[lifeisdeep]

Now you're just being stupid...
we're done.

Grow up and learn to think.

 

[LittleVol]

Grow up and learn to think.

Please tell me what I need to think about.
You completely deflected.

Thats what happens when a person loses an argument.

You're a grown person. You have the right to be as ignorant as you want.

 

[lifeisdeep]

You have no concept of argument or reason. You seem to think that you can babble nonsense and call it truth, and somehow that makes it so. It doesn’t. You win the prize - you’re on my ignore list.

 

[BigALWiLson]

You have no concept of argument or reason. You seem to think that you can babble nonsense and call it truth, and somehow that makes it so. It doesn’t. You win the prize - you’re on my ignore list.

Yep and now you have been added to mine....

 

[StanfordVol]

On an individual level, stars don’t matter. Plenty of examples of the ratings missing on kids. No problem taking some talented 3 stars, but you have to take the right ones. If you zoom out, stars matter. The data shows that.
Coaching, scheme, development, mentality all matter too. The stars discussion requires too much nuance to divide it between stars matter vs stars don’t matter imo.

 

[lifeisdeep]

Yep and now you have been added to mine....

Oh dear...I'm devastated...I might lose a nanosecond of sleep twenty years from now...But probably not.

 

[m1al]

Sooo, how 'bout this Fletcher kid....

 

[Jackcrevol]

Sooo, how 'bout this Fletch kid....

 

[LittleVol]

Sooo, how 'bout this Fletcher kid....

Definitely a take.

Saw him against Los Alamitos, CA and all their top 100 players. He dominated them. He had 200 yards rushing and the game was never in doubt. He's about 6'2 225 with good speed.

 

[jeff1vol]

Ummm your math isn't adding up. Two million?!?!

Its a metaphor. Nevermind

 

[Orange_Crush]

It's really inexcusable. Assuming they get even $1 in funds specifically earmarked for recruiting, that money is not getting the ROI it should considering how our season is going. I'll go out on a limb and venture that at least one or two staff positions are individuals who are tasked specifically with visiting recruits, pursuing them, etc. - those people are not performing acceptably considering our current standing in the CFP. Having five unranked teams ahead of us, when they're all teams that we have outperformed in recruiting on more than one occasion when we had a terrible staff and were having a losing season, doesn't cut it.

I don't think that's legal.