CFP Show

#251
#251
615vols said:
Do you find tcu to have a better resume than Tennessee? Lsu?
Is tcu ranked ahead of Tennessee and lsu?
If tcu can be ranked ahead why couldn’t usc?
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TCU is ranked ahead solely because of their record. They don’t have any impressive ranked wins but they are undefeated. Give them a loss and a conference title, would they be ranked ahead of us? No. Because they wouldn’t have any quality wins compared to ours. Same goes with USC. In fact LSU being ranked ahead of USC speaks volumes. You need qualify wins. USC’s best case is beating multiple top teen teams. Those still don’t trump LSU’s two current top 15 wins vs Ole Miss and Bama or Tennessee’s vs LSU and Bama.

Quality of wins matter for the teams with losses. The minute TCU loses a game, they sink faster than the titanic. Their unblemished record is the only thing keeping them top 4….Same goes for the loser of Michigan/ Ohio State
 
#253
#253
SmokeyFTW said:
That scenario, strength of schedule has to factor in, so Tenn is in...imo
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Conference championship ALSO figures in.

My point is: it's not a lock situation for TN.

I believe TCU's luck will run out and they'll lose. We're in if they lose AND MI doesn't beat Ohio State in a very close game.

Still, we need more than just "win out and we're in."
 
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#254
#254
JMSqb11 said:
TCU is ranked ahead solely because of their record. They don’t have any impressive ranked wins but they are undefeated. Give them a loss and a conference title, would they be ranked ahead of us? No. Because they wouldn’t have any quality wins compared to ours. Same goes with USC. In fact LSU being ranked ahead of USC speaks volumes. You need qualify wins. USC’s best case is beating multiple top teen teams. Those still don’t trump LSU’s two current top 15 wins vs Ole Miss and Bama or Tennessee’s vs LSU and Bama.

Quality of wins matter for the teams with losses. The minute TCU loses a game, they sink faster than the titanic. Their unblemished record is the only thing keeping them top 4….Same goes for the loser of Michigan/ Ohio State
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Know what else matters when it’s close? Conference championships.
 
#255
#255
iWishItWasTheWeekend said:
At what point do losses matter? In this scenario, USC would have 1 less loss than LSU, who lost a game at home by 4 touchdowns.
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Losses matter when the quality of wins are equal. You can’t say USC beating Notre Dame and UCLA and Oregon/Utah are better wins than LSU beating Bama, Ole Miss, and Georgia. If they were the same, the losses Utah vs Blowout by Tennessee and missed PAT vs FSU would tilt USC’s favor.

But i wouldn’t dare say UCLA, Notre Dame, and Oregon/Utah are on equal quality of wins as beating as Bama, Ole Miss, and Georgia. You can, but I definitely think you’d be in minority arguing that.
 
#256
#256
615vols said:
And Both would likely have an argument to get in over an 11-1 team who didn’t win their conference, which is the point. We definitely need usc to drop a game.
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I've said it twice today and probably 10 more times this week. LSU benefits from the structure of the SEC title game. If they were in the Pac12 or Big10 they wouldn't even be playing for a conference title. It would be the top 2 teams - GA vs. TN for a title and CFP birth.
 
#257
#257
RockyTopJA said:
Wanna put odds on an LSU SEC Champ jumping into the playoffs without a TCU loss?
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So who gets left out? Right now, the locks for the playoff are Georgia, Tennessee, OSU/Michigan winner. The final spot comes down to TCU and they get it if they go 13-0. A loss and the final spot comes open and that is when LSU is a win away in Atlanta from clinching #4
 
#258
#258
Volstylexx said:
I've said it twice today and probably 10 more times this week. LSU benefits from the structure of the SEC title game. If they were in the Pac12 or Big10 they wouldn't even be playing for a conference title. It would be the top 2 teams - GA vs. TN for a title and CFP birth.
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You’re comparing conferences with 10 and 12 teams to a 14 team league….. okay.
 
#259
#259
JMSqb11 said:
Losses matter when the quality of wins are equal. You can’t say USC beating Notre Dame and UCLA and Oregon/Utah are better wins than LSU beating Bama, Ole Miss, and Georgia. If they were the same, the losses Utah vs Blowout by Tennessee and missed PAT vs FSU would tilt USC’s favor.

But i wouldn’t dare say UCLA, Notre Dame, and Oregon/Utah are on equal quality of wins as beating as Bama, Ole Miss, and Georgia. You can, but I definitely think you’d be in minority arguing that.
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The argument you're making is that the SEC teams ALWAYS have a CFP advantage. USC doesn't play in the SEC like LSU so playing Bama, GA, etc isn't really possible.

What USC CAN and MIGHT do is take care of their current conference and a reasonably strong OOC opponent.

You're saying the CFP should be immediately biased for the SEC because they play teams other conferences can't really schedule regularly.
 
#261
#261
iWishItWasTheWeekend said:
USC has a backloaded schedule where they will play 3 ranked teams and can win a conference championship with one loss. You don’t think beating ranked UCLA, ranked Notre Dame, and possibly ranked Oregon and winning a Power 5 conference would vault them over Tennessee who closes out the season with 3 nobodies?

I think Tennessee is the better team and I have a hard time seeing USC winning out, but they absolutely will get the nod over Tennessee if they do.
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Not if they're evaluating the quality of ranked wins. Let's not forget that ranked UCLA just lost at home to a 3-6 team last week, Notre Dame lost at home to Marshall and Stanford who is 1-7 btw. They also won by 3 last week against a 3-7 Navy team. Not all ranked wins are the same imo.
 
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#262
#262
SayUWantAreVOLution said:
The argument you're making is that the SEC teams ALWAYS have a CFP advantage. USC doesn't play in the SEC like LSU so playing Bama, GA, etc isn't really possible.

What USC CAN and MIGHT do is take care of their current conference and a reasonably strong OOC opponent.

You're saying the CFP should be immediately biased for the SEC because they play teams other conferences can't really schedule regularly.
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No. The argument I’m making is that a resumè that includes wins over two top 10 teams and the #1 team is a much better resumè that one with 3 wins over teams ranked #10-#18…..

It doesn’t matter that the first 3 are in one conference and the second 3 are in another.

At its basic, 3 wins over top 10 teams that include #1 vastly outweigh 3 wins over teams ranked #10-#18…

Are you saying those are not?
 
#264
#264
I4Vols said:
Here's the way the selection works:
1. There are written rules
2. There are ways to justify not following the written rules

Look at who is on the committee. Look at each person's university and conference associations.
The Big10 is well represented. The Big10'ers will try to justify their teams plus USC who is to be one of them. Notre Dame dudes will do the same as they are "the same clique."

The lone SEC person is Mitch Barnhart and he's from Kentucky... (ok, he did work at UT)

If us being in is not clear cut (i.e., we win out big, USC loses a game, & Mich loses somewhat ugly), then they'll light those backroom cigars 'cause it gets totally political. And, we're likely screwed vs a USC or Mich

Check out each member's affiliations:
2022-23 Selection Committee Roster - College Football Playoff

It's not comforting...
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Not saying your wrong but hopefully this committee was chosen with integrity in mind. GBO
 
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#268
#268
Volstylexx said:
I'm comparing two leagues that folks are saying are "locks" for the CFP if they win their conference championship games.
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If TCU runs table, they are going to the playoff because they would be 13-0.

USC at 12-1 needs help from 2 of the 3 teams and those are LsU, Tennessee, and TCU.

No amount of wins over top “teen” teams will push USC ahead of Tennessee or LSU or TCU without 2 of those 3 teams losing. TCU going 13-0 and Tennessee going 11-1 means USC gets left out. Even with LSU losing in Atlanta.
 
#269
#269
volfan_28 said:
Agreed. They are currently ranked behind 2-loss LSU (who we destroyed) but they’re going to somehow jump 1-loss Vols by winning a couple of games against 2-loss opponents? Riiiiight
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Wins over UcLA (who just got thrashed by Zona) and Notre Dame will propel them to the Top 4 obviously.
 
#270
#270
If tcu wins out they’re in. If usc wins out, hate to say it guys but they’re in. I understand the thinking behind this, if the conference championships don’t matter then why do we have em? Ohio state and Michigan loser is out, so we need either tcu or usc to lose to guarantee us a spot.
 
#271
#271
615vols said:
You claimed usc wouldn’t get in due to viewership numbers and “18 years since the pac won a title”. My point is that’s irrelevant, Cincinnati was a prime example.
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I'm claiming that the relative perception of the quality of the Pac-12 is not good and that $$ matters to the NCAA. I think both of those things are true statements if all other things are equal. I.e. TN at 11-1 and USC at 12-1. Last year's scenario wasn't equal imo. because Cincinnati was the only undefeated team and all the other teams behind them had 2 losses with the exception of a team they beat in the regular season in a head-to-head. Committee didn't have a chance to use viewership and $$ last year bc the gap between 4-6 was so large. I just think if all other things are similar, viewership and $$ will matter.
 
#272
#272
SonOfGodVolforlife said:
If tcu wins out they’re in. If usc wins out, hate to say it guys but they’re in. I understand the thinking behind this, if the conference championships don’t matter then why do we have em? Ohio state and Michigan loser is out, so we need either tcu or usc to lose to guarantee us a spot.
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So the Trojans will jump a 1 loss Mich/Ohio St and Tennessee and LSU because of a Conf championship with also having a loss?
 
#273
#273
JMSqb11 said:
No. The argument I’m making is that a resumè that includes wins over two top 10 teams and the #1 team is a much better resumè that one with 3 wins over teams ranked #10-#18…..

It doesn’t matter that the first 3 are in one conference and the second 3 are in another.

At its basic, 3 wins over top 10 teams that include #1 vastly outweigh 3 wins over teams ranked #10-#18…

Are you saying those are not?
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My issue is that USC (until they move to the B1G) can only "bloom where they are planted" and win the games they have to schedule in their conference, just like LSU.

The PAC 10 is a Power 5 conference so a they're going to play a lot of PAC 10 opponents. The SEC is heavy with ranked opponents and the PAC 10 isn't.

By your metric, USC is always behind because they HAVE to schedule PAC 10 opponents and LSU is always at an advantage because they're in the SEC scheduling more higher ranked opponents.

That's EXACTLY what the committee is in place to do...... balance ranking what teams CAN do vs what they did do.

That's why TCU is ranked now. They've bloomed where they were planted.
 
#275
#275
Committee showing us that early season non-conference losses are irrelevant.

LSU is ranked in the exact same spot they would be if they hadn’t of lost to Florida State.
 
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