CFP Show

[Volstylexx]

If usc wins out and finishes with 1 loss, it’ll be a choice between 1 loss Tennessee or 1 loss usc who is a conference champion. That isn’t far fetched to think usc would get the nod in that circumstance.

PAC12 reputation is horrible and last weekend only cemented that mentality. You can't have top 10ish teams losing at home to 3-6 teams in week 10 of the season. 18 years since a Pac 12 team has won a national title. During that same time span, the SEC has won 12 titles. 11-1 (SEC) > 12-1 (PAC `12 Champ)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/10/23/oregon-ucla-pac-12-playoff/

 

[Vol in Buckeye Land]

If USC and TCU were to win out then we are out.

Keep pushing this narrative. Then you can still say you were right when one or both of those teams drops a game.

 

[Volstylexx]

USC's ranking tonight doesn't mean it would be the same after wins over UCLA and ND and a championship. I wouldn't rule out them wanting a Pac 12 team in there, if they win out.

Why? That conference hasn't produced a National Champion in 18 years? I hear folks say the CFP doesn't want multiple SEC teams in the playoffs all the time, but I don't think that's rooted in reality. This sport is about revenue. No one is watching a Pac12 team get blown out in the playoffs. TN has played in 3 of the most watched college football games all season. There are few brands that pull the viewership we will. TN = $$$$

 

[JMSqb11]

LSU plays UAB and Texas A&M in the next two weeks. USC plays UCLA and Notre Dame. Because these rankings change week to week, USC will jump LSU if they go 2-0 over the next two weeks. Then, if they somehow win the Pac 12 against another ranked opponent in the championship game, they will jump Tennessee.

How can you not see this?

Quality of wins matter. USC beating a bunch of Top 10-20 teams isn’t some earth shattering resumè builder.

 

[VolsFan-TX]

IIRC Didn't OSU make the playoff in 2020 passing over the big ten champ?

According to my BVS, TN wasn’t on the short end of that one..

 

[iWishItWasTheWeekend]

“Getting in” ≠ moving ahead of Tennessee. If their season thus far with one close loss isn’t enough to move them ahead of 2-loss LSU, they’re not jumping UT regardless of what happens. We will almost certainly never find out, though, because the likelihood of them winning all three of those games is very small.

USC has a backloaded schedule where they will play 3 ranked teams and can win a conference championship with one loss. You don’t think beating ranked UCLA, ranked Notre Dame, and possibly ranked Oregon and winning a Power 5 conference would vault them over Tennessee who closes out the season with 3 nobodies?

I think Tennessee is the better team and I have a hard time seeing USC winning out, but they absolutely will get the nod over Tennessee if they do.

 

[615vols]

PAC12 reputation is horrible and last weekend only cemented that mentality. You can't have top 10ish teams losing at home to 3-6 teams in week 10 of the season. 18 years since a Pac 12 team has won a national title. During that same time span, the SEC has won 12 titles. 11-1 (SEC) > 12-1 (PAC `12 Champ)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/10/23/oregon-ucla-pac-12-playoff/

That literally has zero bearing on usc making the playoff or not. Obviously the reputation isn’t hurting them too badly, they jumped up to number 7 in the nation. If they finish the season with 3 ranked wins and a conference championship, that likely gets them in. At the very least they’d be in the conversation to jump us.

 

[OrangeInKy]

Why? That conference hasn't produced a National Champion in 18 years? I hear folks say the CFP doesn't want multiple SEC teams in the playoffs all the time, but I don't think that's rooted in reality. This sport is about revenue. No one is watching a Pac12 team get blown out in the playoffs. TN has played in 3 of the most watched college football games all season. There are few brands that pull the viewership we will. TN = $$$$

You’re preaching to the choir. I’m not saying it should be that way, I’m just saying I think the CFP committee could lean that way. It’s hard to know because the goal posts always move, and all we hear is the talking heads telling us what the committee is thinking. It seemed tonight that Ga boy was saying LSU should jump us if they beat UGA. The criteria he cited was different than what we have been told matters. I don’t think anyone knows I just wouldn’t rule it out.

 

[JMSqb11]

USC has a backloaded schedule where they will play 3 ranked teams and can win a conference championship with one loss. You don’t think beating ranked UCLA, ranked Notre Dame, and possibly ranked Oregon and winning a Power 5 conference would vault them over Tennessee who closes out the season with 3 nobodies?

I think Tennessee is the better team and I have a hard time seeing USC winning out, but they absolutely will get the nod over Tennessee if they do.

16 UCLA, #18 ND, #10 Utah/Oregon would not be a better closing stretch of wins compared to LSU finishing 7-0 with 3 wins being Top 10 Ole Miss, #7 Bama, and #1 Georgia.

If you think beating UCLA, Notre Dame, and Utah/Oregon is more impressive than beating Ole Miss, Bama, and Georgia, not sure what to say

 

[Volstylexx]

They would use the conf championship reason.

Here's the CFP's official metrics for selection. The only area USC would have the advantage is in a conference championship and I don't personally think they will win it. Oregon will get them in the title game (imo).

The committee will select the teams using a process that distinguishes among otherwise comparable teams by considering:

Conference championships won,

Strength of schedule,

Head‐to‐head competition,

Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incentivizing margin of victory), and,

Other relevant factors such as unavailability of key players and coaches that may have affected a team’s performance during the season or likely will affect its postseason performance.

 

[615vols]

Why? That conference hasn't produced a National Champion in 18 years? I hear folks say the CFP doesn't want multiple SEC teams in the playoffs all the time, but I don't think that's rooted in reality. This sport is about revenue. No one is watching a Pac12 team get blown out in the playoffs. TN has played in 3 of the most watched college football games all season. There are few brands that pull the viewership we will. TN = $$$$

They put the Cincinnati bearcats in last year, it’s not all about when the last national championship was or viewership numbers. But even then, usc is a national brand/traditional power.

 

[Volstylexx]

You’re preaching to the choir. I’m not saying it should be that way, I’m just saying I think the CFP committee could lean that way. It’s hard to know because the goal posts always move, and all we hear is the talking heads telling us what the committee is thinking. It seemed tonight that Ga boy was saying LSU should jump us if they beat UGA. The criteria he cited was different than what we have been told matters. I don’t think anyone knows I just wouldn’t rule it out.

I got you. We've got nothing else to talk about until Saturday, so just my opinion tossed in there with everyone else. These things always play themselves out. Odds of USC winning out is like 3.8% per ESPN predictor.

 

[RockyTopJA]

Only way LSU makes the playoff is if they go 11-2 and TCU drops a game. Then LSU clinched the 4 spot while UGA and Tennessee are 2/3 and OSU/Michigan are 1.

LSU only makes the playoff in a 3 SEC team in playoff scenario. Tennessee IS GOING to the playoff with 11-1 record. TCU goes 13-0, LSU is shut out of playoff regardless if they beat Georgia.

I like your optimism but we’re not jumping an undefeated TCU AND an LSU SEC Champ. They would weigh that UGA win heavily and we will be on the outside. We need controlled chaos. Let the PAC and ACC eat each other, hope the BIG12 does the same at some point, and if we boat race we’re in position. Make no mistake, we need help.

 

[Vol*n*teer]

According to my BVS, TN wasn’t on the short end of that one..

Thanks for clarifying.

 

[615vols]

16 UCLA, #18 ND, #10 Utah/Oregon would not be a better closing stretch of wins compared to LSU finishing 7-0 with 3 wins being Top 10 Ole Miss, #7 Bama, and #1 Georgia.

If you think beating UCLA, Notre Dame, and Utah/Oregon is more impressive than beating Ole Miss, Bama, and Georgia, not sure what to say

Do you find tcu to have a better resume than Tennessee? Lsu?
Is tcu ranked ahead of Tennessee and lsu?
If tcu can be ranked ahead why couldn’t usc?

 

[iWishItWasTheWeekend]

16 UCLA, #18 ND, #10 Utah/Oregon would not be a better closing stretch of wins compared to LSU finishing 7-0 with 3 wins being Top 10 Ole Miss, #7 Bama, and #1 Georgia.

If you think beating UCLA, Notre Dame, and Utah/Oregon is more impressive than beating Ole Miss, Bama, and Georgia, not sure what to say

At what point do losses matter? In this scenario, USC would have 1 less loss than LSU, who lost a game at home by 4 touchdowns.

 

[Hulavol]

Good lord fellas !

I know BVS runs rampant and all, but dang!
UT is gold.
Win and we are in. Period.
OSU / Mich loser falls behind us.

And that’s worst case!

Everyone needs to really relax about this. UT is in perfect shape.

 

[Volstylexx]

They put the Cincinnati bearcats in last year, it’s not all about when the last national championship was or viewership numbers. But even then, usc is a national brand/traditional power.

Last year's scenario was completely different though. Cincinnati was 4th in the CFP (the only undefeated team). #5 was Notre dame (who Cincinnati beat in the regular season). #6 and down all had at least 2 losses.

 

[615vols]

Good lord fellas !

I know BVS runs rampant and all, but dang!
UT is gold.
Win and we are in. Period.
OSU / Mich loser falls behind us.

And that’s worst case!

Everyone needs to really relax about this. UT is in perfect shape.

It’s just conversation. And if usc wins out and finishes as a 1 loss conference champ, they will definitely be debated to take one of the 4 spots.

 

[Vol in Buckeye Land]

USC has a backloaded schedule where they will play 3 ranked teams and can win a conference championship with one loss. You don’t think beating ranked UCLA, ranked Notre Dame, and possibly ranked Oregon and winning a Power 5 conference would vault them over Tennessee who closes out the season with 3 nobodies?

I think Tennessee is the better team and I have a hard time seeing USC winning out, but they absolutely will get the nod over Tennessee if they do.

You’re assuming that the committee has the same recency bias that common fans do, and doesn’t take steps to ensure that they are considering the entire body of work.

Beating 1.) a team that just lost to a pitiful Arizona squad, 2.) a 3-loss ND team (that lost to Marshall), and 3.) Oregon or Utah, both of which got embarrassed by SEC teams (Oregon because they lost so badly, Utah because they lost at all to a very sloppy UF team) and have two losses does not come close to equalling a win over currently 8th ranked Alabama and absolutely dismantling the 6th ranked team on the road as well, not to mention annihilating other conference teams far better than the glorified FCS squads USC has made their living beating (Colorado, Rice, etc.).

 

[JMSqb11]

LSU’s opponents record in final 7 games: 45-25 USC’s opponents record in final 6*games: 30-29

*LSU and UGA secured SEC Divisions so game is already scheduled. USC still TBD for conference title game.

 

[615vols]

Last year's scenario was completely different though. Cincinnati was 4th in the CFP (the only undefeated team). #5 was Notre dame (who Cincinnati beat in the regular season). #6 and down all had at least 2 losses.

You claimed usc wouldn’t get in due to viewership numbers and “18 years since the pac won a title”. My point is that’s irrelevant, Cincinnati was a prime example.

 

[SayUWantAreVOLution]

Good lord fellas !

I know BVS runs rampant and all, but dang!
UT is gold.
Win and we are in. Period.
OSU / Mich loser falls behind us.

And that’s worst case!

Everyone needs to really relax about this. UT is in perfect shape.

USC is saying exactly the same thing.

USC will have the same record as us AND a conference championship.

Assume GA and TCU take care of business, they're in. tOSU beats MI convincingly, they're in.

TN 11-1 no conference championship
USC 11-1 PAC 10 champion.


Who gets in?

 

[JMSqb11]

I like your optimism but we’re not jumping an undefeated TCU AND an LSU SEC Champ. They would weigh that UGA win heavily and we will be on the outside. We need controlled chaos. Let the PAC and ACC eat each other, hope the BIG12 does the same at some point, and if we boat race we’re in position. Make no mistake, we need help.

What part of TCU needing to lose for LSU to have any chance at making playoff do you not understand?

 

[SmokeyFTW]

USC is saying exactly the same thing.

USC will have the same record as us AND a conference championship.

Assume GA and TCU take care of business, they're in. tOSU beats MI convincingly, they're in.

TN 11-1 no conference championship
USC 11-1 PAC 10 champion.


Who gets in?

That scenario, strength of schedule has to factor in, so Tenn is in...imo

 

[I4Vols]

Here's the way the selection works:
1. There are written rules
2. There are ways to justify not following the written rules

Look at who is on the committee. Look at each person's university and conference associations.
The Big10 is well represented. The Big10'ers will try to justify their teams plus USC who is to be one of them. Notre Dame dudes will do the same as they are "the same clique."

The lone SEC person is Mitch Barnhart and he's from Kentucky... (ok, he did work at UT)

If us being in is not clear cut (i.e., we win out big, USC loses a game, & Mich loses somewhat ugly), then they'll light those backroom cigars 'cause it gets totally political. And, we're likely screwed vs a USC or Mich

Check out each member's affiliations:
2022-23 Selection Committee Roster - College Football Playoff

It's not comforting...