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I agree with it being the riskiest, so far. Part of the territory of signing young pitchers to long-term deals is there is a lot of projection and hope for their health. Frankly, if you get 3 more years of ace-level stuff for $6 million, you're probably ok with a decline and subsequent overpay on the back half of the deal. In the end, you still paid $75 million for 3 really good years. I'd rather have current-level Spencer Strider for 3 years at $75 million than current-level Max Scherzer for 3 years at $130 million.
I just hate pitcher extensions in general. But the Braves money machine keeps going brrr so they don’t really care lol. If Strider becomes an ace $20M/ for three years is a damn steal.