War in Ukraine

Watching lots of video coming out of Ukraine today with Ukraine wrecking Russians with old American weapon systems. Then again, not really surprised when Russians are using even older Soviet systems.

Especially enjoying the captured Donbas soldiers begging for their lives, pleading that they were kidnapped and forced to fight. Wasn't someone on here upset that Ukraine has been killing "their citizens" in Donbas?...Hmm..

 
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Propaganda or twitter battles are not going to have any real impact on the end result. It doesn't matter who is doing it.
Actually it really could. Why did we pull out of Afghanistan? Support back home dried up. Or go back to what I originally compared this war to with the Winter War. Finland won because their propaganda kept the people at home out of the loop. The people had a mass protest after the war when they heard the actual losses. But it only happened till after the war, which alllowed them to get favorable terms compared to the reality on the ground.

I keep saying it, and there is a reason that truth is the first casualty of war.
 
So the Kharkiv offensive has punched at least 50 kms into Russian held territory, and is rumored to be knocking on the gates of Kupiansk.

The question remains: Was this northern offensive part of their plans or just one of opportunity.

If it were planned, it was sheer genius:

* Announce to the world over and over that you're gonna start a new large counteroffensive in the South to recapture Kherson.
* Visibly move armor, men and materiel out in the open so that Russia intel can see it.
* Russia response: We must defend Kherson! Send our best crack troops from Donbas front lines down there and anyone else we can scrape up.
* Russian troops and equipment come streaming into Kherson city - crossing the Dneiper to get there.
* 20,000+ troops in all are rallied in Kherson to prevent the Ukrainian attack.
* True to its word, Ukraine starts its counteroffensive in the south 2 Mondays ago.
* Ukraine begins to drive (successfully) into the Kherson region.
* Meanwhile, secretly (to the extent possible) Ukraine mobilizes the majority of its offensive gear and troops to the north.
* Then, lights out. HIMARS begin to rain down on every static bridge over the Dneiper river and emergency pontoon and ferry assembled.
* Russian equipment now virtually unable to cross back over.
* Then this week, Ukraine begins its REAL counteroffensive in the North - reportedly with 9K+ troops.
* They blast through the 1st lines in a coordinated attack, and find Russia has virtually no reserves available to plug the holes.
* Meanwhile, all of Putin's crack troops and equipment are STUCK on the west side of the river in Kherson - unable to move back North to the point of actual Ukrainian counterattack.

Looking forward to reading the book on what really happened someday.

In the meantime, Russia appears to be COMPLETELY F*CKED!

 
Actually it really could. Why did we pull out of Afghanistan? Support back home dried up. Or go back to what I originally compared this war to with the Winter War. Finland won because their propaganda kept the people at home out of the loop. The people had a mass protest after the war when they heard the actual losses. But it only happened till after the war, which alllowed them to get favorable terms compared to the reality on the ground.

I keep saying it, and there is a reason that truth is the first casualty of war.
Mission was accomplished in 2011 but the President at the time was a moron and kept us there needlessly for almost an extra decade.
 
Celebrating the desperate flailings of a drowning Country like Ukraine and calling it swimming is quite something.

Until Ukraine mounts a legitimate counteroffensive, there is nothing changing the course of this special military operation.

Celebrating this "counteroffensive", if you can even call it that, is really quite grotesque...

Yeah, you've been saying the same thing for months. It's a war. Stuff gets blown up. People die. Are you mentally retarded? Does this come as a shock to you?? Do you not understand how war works?

This is why I keep saying, show me a legitimate successful Ukrainian counteroffensive. We keep hearing about this big coming counteroffensive, a few smaller ones were tried in Kherson and ended in humiliating fashion for Ukraine.

Once I see that, I'll take notice. Until then, it is nothing more than a tick bite on a bear.

So what?? That's the point, dumba$$, so what? It is in no way changing the course of this conflict. It has yet, after months of fighting, changed the course. Until Ukraine can show they can mount a counteroffensive, so what??

Still waiting for that vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive on Kherson to begin....



Ukraine has retaken 1,000 sq miles of territory, Volodymyr Zelenskiy says
President announces soldiers have taken key eastern town of Balakliia, as US secretary of state visits Kyiv

Hey, @volgr! Dinner time, comrade!

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tenor (25).gif
 
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Actually it really could. Why did we pull out of Afghanistan? Support back home dried up. Or go back to what I originally compared this war to with the Winter War. Finland won because their propaganda kept the people at home out of the loop. The people had a mass protest after the war when they heard the actual losses. But it only happened till after the war, which alllowed them to get favorable terms compared to the reality on the ground.

I keep saying it, and there is a reason that truth is the first casualty of war.

The outcome of this won't change other than insignificant details. It doesn't matter how many protests there are, and it doesn't matter what your twitter feed looks like. Of course, more support for what they are doing is good for them I am sure from a PR stand point, but at the end of the day the objectives will have to be met.... the easy way or the hard way. The plan hasn't changed in 30 years, Congress figured it out nearly 25+ years ago, see Congressional Record. There is no plan B.

Russians have only one real option, complete the objective of clearing the spot on the map either by surrender agreement, depopulation or turning it into parking lot.

None of this is complex.

The US military and Congress have known for almost 3 decades, no force can win there. The outcome is already known, just not the insignificant details.
 
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So the Kharkiv offensive has punched at least 50 kms into Russian held territory, and is rumored to be knocking on the gates of Kupiansk.

The question remains: Was this northern offensive part of their plans or just one of opportunity.

If it were planned, it was sheer genius:

* Announce to the world over and over that you're gonna start a new large counteroffensive in the South to recapture Kherson.
* Visibly move armor, men and materiel out in the open so that Russia intel can see it.
* Russia response: We must defend Kherson! Send our best crack troops from Donbas front lines down there and anyone else we can scrape up.
* Russian troops and equipment come streaming into Kherson city - crossing the Dneiper to get there.
* 20,000+ troops in all are rallied in Kherson to prevent the Ukrainian attack.
* True to its word, Ukraine starts its counteroffensive in the south 2 Mondays ago.
* Ukraine begins to drive (successfully) into the Kherson region.
* Meanwhile, secretly (to the extent possible) Ukraine mobilizes the majority of its offensive gear and troops to the north.
* Then, lights out. HIMARS begin to rain down on every static bridge over the Dneiper river and emergency pontoon and ferry assembled.
* Russian equipment now virtually unable to cross back over.
* Then this week, Ukraine begins its REAL counteroffensive in the North - reportedly with 9K+ troops.
* They blast through the 1st lines in a coordinated attack, and find Russia has virtually no reserves available to plug the holes.
* Meanwhile, all of Putin's crack troops and equipment are STUCK on the west side of the river in Kherson - unable to move back North to the point of actual Ukrainian counterattack.

Looking forward to reading the book on what really happened someday.

In the meantime, Russia appears to be COMPLETELY F*CKED!


Ukranian version of Patton’s Ghost Army
 
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So the Kharkiv offensive has punched at least 50 kms into Russian held territory, and is rumored to be knocking on the gates of Kupiansk.

The question remains: Was this northern offensive part of their plans or just one of opportunity.

If it were planned, it was sheer genius:

* Announce to the world over and over that you're gonna start a new large counteroffensive in the South to recapture Kherson.
* Visibly move armor, men and materiel out in the open so that Russia intel can see it.
* Russia response: We must defend Kherson! Send our best crack troops from Donbas front lines down there and anyone else we can scrape up.
* Russian troops and equipment come streaming into Kherson city - crossing the Dneiper to get there.
* 20,000+ troops in all are rallied in Kherson to prevent the Ukrainian attack.
* True to its word, Ukraine starts its counteroffensive in the south 2 Mondays ago.
* Ukraine begins to drive (successfully) into the Kherson region.
* Meanwhile, secretly (to the extent possible) Ukraine mobilizes the majority of its offensive gear and troops to the north.
* Then, lights out. HIMARS begin to rain down on every static bridge over the Dneiper river and emergency pontoon and ferry assembled.
* Russian equipment now virtually unable to cross back over.
* Then this week, Ukraine begins its REAL counteroffensive in the North - reportedly with 9K+ troops.
* They blast through the 1st lines in a coordinated attack, and find Russia has virtually no reserves available to plug the holes.
* Meanwhile, all of Putin's crack troops and equipment are STUCK on the west side of the river in Kherson - unable to move back North to the point of actual Ukrainian counterattack.

Looking forward to reading the book on what really happened someday.

In the meantime, Russia appears to be COMPLETELY F*CKED!


Eh. This is what Russia has claimed to do at least 3 or 4 times. No really, this time they have the Ukrainians surrounded and they will take more losses than is needed.

Unless they actually close that pocket in the south and can capture those 20k I dont see a big change here.
 
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Eh. This is what Russia has claimed to do at least 3 or 4 times. No really, this time they have the Ukrainians surrounded and they will take more losses than is needed.

Unless they actually close that pocket in the south and can capture those 20k I dont see a big change here.

The main counteroffensive right now is in the North. If they reach Kupiansk, Izyium will likely fall as well. Kupiansk is a critical hub for the railway system which powers their artillery-based offensive strategy. Without railroads, Russia is completely screwed.

As for the South, the "pocket" is already closed. Even if Russia attempted to evacuate its armor and vehicles, the vast majority would not escape as it stands right *now*.

Update:

And so it begins... already.

 
The outcome of this won't change other than insignificant details. It doesn't matter how many protests there are, and it doesn't matter what your twitter feed looks like. Of course, more support for what they are doing is good for them I am sure from a PR stand point, but at the end of the day the objectives will have to be met.... the easy way or the hard way. The plan hasn't changed in 30 years, Congress figured it out nearly 25+ years ago, see Congressional Record. There is no plan B.

Russians have only one real option, complete the objective of clearing the spot on the map either by surrender agreement, depopulation or turning it into parking lot.

None of this is complex.

The US military and Congress have known for almost 3 decades, no force can win there. The outcome is already known, just not the insignificant details.
And you didnt read what I said. The Ukrainians can lose the fight on the ground and still get favorable terms. As long as they stay in the fight it will be a Slav off and they havent lost. And if their propaganda can change minds, even if only for a few weeks or months, it can make a huge difference to them staying in the war.
 
The main counteroffensive right now is in the North. If they reach Kupiansk, Izyium will likely fall as well. Kupiansk is a critical hub for the railway system which powers their artillery-based offensive strategy. Without railroads, Russia is completely screwed.

As for the South, the "pocket" is already closed. Even if Russia attempted to evacuate its armor and vehicles, the vast majority would not escape as it stands right *now*.

Update:

And so it begins... already.


The fact that Ukraine is even able to do this so many months into this 3 day operation is an indictment on Russian military/government incompetence and an impressive display of Ukrainian/underdog resolve in the face of overwhelming odds.
 
look, it comes down to this. ruskies will get a shot off or two. It will NOT be America that does it. America may not even respond to these bitches. The fact that America has done this much damage with .... checks notes..:. 716DC2F3-54E5-4437-9002-2526FE7E26D0.jpeg

13.5 b. of 40 b. reserve.... go **** yourself. We would rather trade.
 
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The main counteroffensive right now is in the North. If they reach Kupiansk, Izyium will likely fall as well. Kupiansk is a critical hub for the railway system which powers their artillery-based offensive strategy. Without railroads, Russia is completely screwed.

As for the South, the "pocket" is already closed. Even if Russia attempted to evacuate its armor and vehicles, the vast majority would not escape as it stands right *now*.

Update:

And so it begins... already.


The russians have other rail lines. This was just the most direct/shortest route. Cutting that line will matter. For a while, a couple days or weeks depending on how competent Russian logistics are. If they were actually competent it wouldnt effect them at all. But it will. It may allow Ukraine to launch other offensives, but the only one I see mattering would be in the south.

If Ukraine cant actually use this cut rail line to gain ground elsewhere it just drags on the war in a slightly different location.
 
And you didnt read what I said. The Ukrainians can lose the fight on the ground and still get favorable terms. As long as they stay in the fight it will be a Slav off and they havent lost. And if their propaganda can change minds, even if only for a few weeks or months, it can make a huge difference to them staying in the war.

They were probably already given the favorable terms, now Russia has pulled out of further talks as now the real war moves to Europe. See article I posted last week saying almost same thing. There probably is no real hurry to get anything done on the diplomatic front now.

I suspect the stupidity going on in Ukraine will drag out for some time now.... probably into next year at least. I don't know why Russia would be in a hurry now.

I suspect like norrislake that we're all heading into recession (and maybe depression), things continue to deteriorate and are we looking at reset????

Lots of parties are playing dangerous games, play stupid games, win stupid prizes.
 
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They were probably already given the favorable terms, now Russia has pulled out of further talks as now the real war moves to Europe. See article I posted last week saying almost same thing. There probably is no real hurry to get anything done on the diplomatic front now.

I suspect the stupidity going on in Ukraine will drag out for some time now.... probably into next year at least. I don't know why Russia would be in a hurry now.

I suspect like norrislake that we're all heading into recession (and maybe depression), things continue to deteriorate and are we looking at reset????

Lots of parties are playing dangerous games, play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

Yep things are looking bad for Ukraine. All those prisoners will be hitting the battlefield soon....and deserting. Not to worry though. They are training homeless drunks for the next wave.
 
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