War in Ukraine

#41,751
#41,751
The Commodity Crisis Has Unfolded for Europe. Who's Next?

I'm not sure I agree with the headline or the conclusions but I think the run down of events is pretty spot on.

It looks like Russia will continue to build out to Asia over the coming 5+ years, see siberian 2 pipeline.

I see no real plan from the Europeans to solve this anytime over the next 10+ years. The present course doesn't look good as there is no real plan on the table.
 
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#41,753
#41,753
Rasputin_Vol said:
Just go by the words that you see the Ukrainiacs using in here. They have openly stated that they are fully aware that Ukraine cannot win this war, but they want to drag this out as long as possible in an effort to try to get Russia into a Vietnam/Afghanistan style quagmire and weaken them militarily... even if that means spilling every drop of Ukrainian blood in the process. They are openly admitting that the Ukrainians are pawns and cannon fodder, and they don't see anything wrong with that.
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I have always wondered whether the Ukraine nut huggers were smart enough to realize this. Those that aren't obvious trolls, that is.
 
#41,754
#41,754
tvolsfan said:
I see a lot of pro Russian sources assuring us Europe is about to freeze to death. And yet, they still haven't caved. Amazing. It's almost like Europe will survive after all. And of course, still be far richer than Russia.
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EU's long term prospects aren't good. It wouldn't be overly tough for Russia to close that gap over the next 50 years.
 
#41,755
#41,755
Septic said:
Did you even watch the clip and see the context or just look at the clickbait framing of her being an extremist? Is this supposed to mean something? I'd wager that every single leader of a nuclear power would respond the same way.

Would you have felt better if she said, no? What if your president said no? You'd want a leader who wouldn't be willing to throw down if the circumstance required it?
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Kennedy during the Cuban Missile Crisis gave us the blueprint. You pick up the phone and try diplomacy. Diplomacy is verboten with this group of Western leaders right now. Truss gives the impression that she can't wait to pull the trigger.
 
#41,756
#41,756
LSU-SIU said:
First, I don't think I have fantasying about anything, only talking possibilities and obvious observations. If they want to collapse, they can continue what they are doing, its their choice.

Why do we care if Europe collapses or not? I don't.
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Europe needs to collapse. It's been propped up for far too long. It is frivolous, corrupt, dying and poorly managed. They are ready for the hard times portion that leads to the beginning of their renewal.
 
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#41,758
#41,758
Septic said:
Did you even watch the clip and see the context or just look at the clickbait framing of her being an extremist? Is this supposed to mean something? I'd wager that every single leader of a nuclear power would respond the same way.

Would you have felt better if she said, no? What if your president said no? You'd want a leader who wouldn't be willing to throw down if the circumstance required it?
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There is a way to answer that question that shows both strength and appropriate restraint, but you have to be smarter than Truss to do it on the fly.
 
#41,760
#41,760
Rasputin_Vol said:
No, you are wrong. They are dying for a reason. They are to sacrifice themselves and drag this out as long as possible in an effort to get Russia bogged down in a quagmire. The goal is to demilitarize and demoralize Russia even if it means spilling every drop of Ukrainian blood. This is just the Western govts and media saying this... you have people in here that have openly stated that the Ukrainians are sacrificial proxies being used to drain Russia.
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And for some reason, the peace loving Russians are obliging them and actively partaking in this death cult move they knew about.
 
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#41,761
#41,761
LouderVol said:
And for some reason, the peace loving Russians are obliging them
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Ukraine wants no part of peace talks, what else is Russia supposed to do? They are protecting themselves from a rogue regime. If the shoe was on our foot, would you expect the US to do anything differently?
 
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#41,762
#41,762
volgr said:
Europe needs to collapse. It's been propped up for far too long. It is frivolous, corrupt, dying and poorly managed. They are ready for the hard times portion that leads to the beginning of their renewal.
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I wouldn't say all of Europe. But there is definitely a disconnect between the political class and the majority of their citizens in most European countries.
 
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#41,763
#41,763
LSU-SIU said:
It will take many more artillery conventional shells to flatten that place into the world's biggest parking lot, everyone is going to be looking for shells. Everyone is going to have to produce millions and million more tons of shells.

Anyway that war is over, the European economic war is just getting started.

The irony to me would be countries turning themselves into new versions of 1980s USSR.
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Well, if it's TRUE that Russia is buying artillery shells from outside sources that seems to say the economic war is not going great for Russia.

1. They arent able to produce enough themselves. And conventional shells are relatively easy to produce without a lot of the chips and guidance the west will use.
2. They then have to buy what is, at least arguably, very questionable ammo. Meaning they dont have a lot of choices.
3. Logistics. They at least just doubled their supply lines. That's never a winning move. Just like the arguments about the west having to supply Ukraine meant Ukraine was losing, its telling that the east is having to supply the Russians.
 
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#41,767
#41,767
Rasputin_Vol said:
Their path to victory was sanctions and flooding the area with weapons. The problem is that you can't sanction a country that covers 12 time zones, is a trading partner with China and that actually has a real economy with essential commodities. They are stuck in their biases and their ideology and have no reverse gear. They are just going to continue to double and triple down on failed strategies.
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A real economy that cant supply conventional arms for longer than 6 months to their own military even after decades of build up? Or modernish tanks.

Or cars. Or parts for civilian airplanes.
 
#41,768
#41,768
LSU-SIU said:
The Commodity Crisis Has Unfolded for Europe. Who's Next?

I'm not sure I agree with the headline or the conclusions but I think the run down of events is pretty spot on.

It looks like Russia will continue to build out to Asia over the coming 5+ years, see siberian 2 pipeline.

I see no real plan from the Europeans to solve this anytime over the next 10+ years. The present course doesn't look good as there is no real plan on the table.
Click to expand...

 
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#41,770
#41,770
LouderVol said:
Well, if it's TRUE that Russia is buying artillery shells from outside sources that seems to say the economic war is not going great for Russia.
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Huh. LOL

1. They arent able to produce enough themselves. And conventional shells are relatively easy to produce without a lot of the chips and guidance the west will use.
2. They then have to buy what is, at least arguably, very questionable ammo. Meaning they dont have a lot of choices.
3. Logistics. They at least just doubled their supply lines. That's never a winning move. Just like the arguments about the west having to supply Ukraine meant Ukraine was losing, its telling that the east is having to supply the Russians.
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You think any of the countries can produce enough of anything by themselves, its called globalization. The United States couldn't produce enough toilet paper by itself. The demand for artillery shells is probably greatly outpacing the supply in any of these countries. So?

Not sure where you are going with any of this.

None of what you are talking about is going to change the end result in the Ukraine other than insignificant details. Either the Ukraine gets blown up with conventional artillery shells or tactical nuclear artillery shells.

Probably all the parties that want to blow up the Ukraine are looking for shells. I'm sure there is a mad rush, everyone wants the Ukraine blown up. LOL
 
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#41,772
#41,772
Rasputin_Vol said:
Meh, OK. I think all the evidence you need to see is that you had thousands of people on the streets of Prague and Paris this past weekend while the streets of Moscow and St. Petersburg are quiet.
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You mean before or after the governments arrest everyone doing it? The russians have already called in the KGB to round up their latest batch of dissenters on street corners and TV. Never has been an opposition party to worry about.
 
#41,773
#41,773
Europe's Nightmare Scenario Comes True: Energy Bills To Rise By €2 Trillion, Will Reach 20% Of Disposable Income

In other words, massive amounts of newly-printed funding (because with yields blowing up, Europe's fiscal stimulus will be over before it started unless central banks step in and backstop the latest energy hyperinflation bailout plans) will be required to avert an energy disaster. Alas, the final number will be even more massive, because overnight Goldman's research team published a must read note (available to pro subs), in which the bank looked at the scale of the energy bill challenge, potential European government responses and industry implications, and quantified the total damage. The numbers are staggering:
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Whatever the band aid solution that is applied, however, the reality is grim. And while we wait for the latest Zoltan note to quanity it in a way only he can, the math is simple: Europe can't print more nat gas, oil, coal, etc, so one way or another, it will have to offset the surge in costs, first in commodities and then in all downstream chains, which in the very near future will mean governments will soon be subsidizing Europe's cost of living as the alternative is a violent revolution. In short: we are about to see the printers go brrrr like never before, if only to prevent Europeans from going brrrr this winter...
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Well, the worst part about it for them... isn't that they're paying a huge amount for energy. They have no plan and aren't making plans to secure more energy for the future. It takes years or even decades to roll this stuff no matter what you do.

You can't print gas, or oil, or artillery shells.
 
#41,774
#41,774
Rasputin_Vol said:
Well first off, this isn't the British Empire in 2022... they barely have 80k active troops, so all they have are economic sanctions. Secondly, Russia isn't the fascists grabbing land. These regions in southern and eastern Ukraine were historically Russian since the days of Catherine the Great. Had the Kyiv Regime not been attacking them since 2014, you wouldn't have Ukraine on the verge of becoming the European version of Libya.
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Too bad they were ethnically Ukrainian when the USSR collapsed and were thus part of Ukraine, and not Russia.

If russia hadnt occupied the region's and fired at the Ukrainians, first, second or otherwise, there wouldnt have been the bloodshed in the east. Russia was the only one to gain from that exchange and the only one shipping in arms to the area. It doesnt take a rocket scientist to do the math.
 
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