Recruiting Forum Football Talk IV

[itsme]

This is why baseball is dying. No fun allowed. The unwritten rules are killing the sport.

The 'respect the game' crowd is causing baseball to die a slow death. All this group of young men did was bring life to a sport that was barely going. If they want to say nothing directed toward an opposing team then so be it but this is directed at one team and one team only.

 

[itsme]

Rival college coaches would absolutely hate seeing all those folks having fun

Sold out season but I'm sure they are not respecting the sport in most peoples eyes.

 

[ChattaTNVol]

Recruiting – the debate over star ratings

Usually when I see people discussing the validity or lack thereof of the star system I almost always see two sides divided up with one making the argument for the trees and the other making the argument for the forest. Using isolated examples of a lower star guy who broke out is the trees argument. The other argument based on segregating the talent pool by stars is the forest argument. The forest argument is that the higher star prospects will from an odds perspective be more successful relative to their pool of candidates verses lower ranked players relative to the size of their pool. jmo.

Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and other so-called elite teams recruit a lot of higher rated prospects so they have a higher percentage of their players drafted on average than teams with lower rated players.

The other side of that is a team like Pittsburgh. Narduzzi’s starting offense this year has 10 3-stars and 1 4-star. Narduzzi can’t recruit with the elite teams so he has to rely on development. His starting offense this year has 5 RSRs, 2 SRs, 2 JRs, and 2 SOs. His starting defense also has 10 3-stars and 1 4-star. On that side of the ball they start 6 RSRs, 1 SR, 3 RJRs, and 1 RSO.

A lot of elite teams have a number of 3 and out guys. A team like Pittsburgh is going to be playing with a lot of 5-year guys. I don’t think Narduzzi’s approach can consistently stand up to elite teams but with a limited number of playmakers to go along with all that development and maybe experience they can and do have successful seasons relative to their schedule. jmo.

I recently looked at the offensive linemen taken in the first 3 rounds of the 2022 draft to compare their rating, which class year they came from, and where they played in college and in high school.



This is a chart of all players drafted from 2014-2021, what their star ratings were, and which round they were drafted in.

This is the forest based on the data in the chart above.



I think fans who argue for recruiting higher rated prospects are doing so because of the strength of our schedule. We can sometimes have as many as 4 elite teams on our schedule in a year. I think the fans who object to that argument are not necessarily doing so because they disagree with it. I think they’re at least partly taking exception to “star gazers” venting their disappointment when we take a lower rated prospect and some fans resorting to ungraciously raining on the kid’s boom celebration parade in his thread and at a most inappropriate time. jmo.

I don’t expect any of this to change anytime soon. We’re going to get some elite prospects and we’re going to have to fill our roster with best available where we can’t get elite prospects. The consensus elite prospects we have committed right now are all playmakers, a QB, a TE, a RB/WR, and 2 Edge guys. We may get some more 4-stars in this class but in the end we’re going to have a roster that’s a mix between elite guys and guys who are going to need some time to develop. That’s a recipe that calls for some patience in our fanbase but knowing the composition of our fanbase, I wouldn’t advise holding our breath waiting for us to show that level of self-control. jmo.

This year, based on the depth chart I posted yesterday, our starting offense has 1 5-star (2 if McCoy can play), 5 4-stars, and 5 3-stars. That’s 3 RSRs, 4 SRs, and 4 JRs. On defense for starters we have 4 4-stars and 7 3-stars by my version of starters. Those guys are 2 RSRs, 5 SRs, 1 RJR, 2 JRs, and 1 SO.

Owing to talent and development (experience/returning production), we should have a better starting lineup on both sides of the ball than at least 8 teams on our schedule this year. jmo.

 

[Rishvol]

View attachment 473077Volnation training might have saved my life. Ran across this guy walking the Bicentennial Trail in Cheatham County. My wife didn’t see it but months of training on VN have given me a keen eye. Cheers and stay safe out there!

You are a hero sir! A true American Hero!

 

[YNWAvols]

View attachment 473077Volnation training might have saved my life. Ran across this guy walking the Bicentennial Trail in Cheatham County. My wife didn’t see it but months of training on VN have given me a keen eye. Cheers and stay safe out there!

I still have PTSD thinking Wardy Joubert III is somewhere hidden in these pics. Not sure what that says about me.

 

[HoleInTheRoof]

Recruiting – the debate over star ratings

Usually when I see people discussing the validity or lack thereof of the star system I almost always see two sides divided up with one making the argument for the trees and the other making the argument for the forest. Using isolated examples of a lower star guy who broke out is the trees argument. The other argument based on segregating the talent pool by stars is the forest argument. The forest argument is that the higher star prospects will from an odds perspective be more successful relative to their pool of candidates verses lower ranked players relative to the size of their pool. jmo.

Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and other so-called elite teams recruit a lot of higher rated prospects so they have a higher percentage of their players drafted on average than teams with lower rated players.

The other side of that is a team like Pittsburgh. Narduzzi’s starting offense this year has 10 3-stars and 1 4-star. Narduzzi can’t recruit with the elite teams so he has to rely on development. His starting offense this year has 5 RSRs, 2 SRs, 2 JRs, and 2 SOs. His starting defense also has 10 3-stars and 1 4-star. On that side of the ball they start 6 RSRs, 1 SR, 3 RJRs, and 1 RSO.

A lot of elite teams have a number of 3 and out guys. A team like Pittsburgh is going to be playing with a lot of 5-year guys. I don’t think Narduzzi’s approach can consistently stand up to elite teams but with a limited number of playmakers to go along with all that development and maybe experience they can and do have successful seasons relative to their schedule. jmo.

I recently looked at the offensive linemen taken in the first 3 rounds of the 2022 draft to compare their rating, which class year they came from, and where they played in college and in high school.

View attachment 473098

This is a chart of all players drafted from 2014-2021, what their star ratings were, and which round they were drafted in.

This is the forest based on the data in the chart above.

View attachment 473099

I think fans who argue for recruiting higher rated prospects are doing so because of the strength of our schedule. We can sometimes have as many as 4 elite teams on our schedule in a year. I think the fans who object to that argument are not necessarily doing so because they disagree with it. I think they’re at least partly taking exception to “star gazers” venting their disappointment when we take a lower rated prospect and some fans resorting to ungraciously raining on the kid’s boom celebration parade in his thread and at a most inappropriate time. jmo.

I don’t expect any of this to change anytime soon. We’re going to get some elite prospects and we’re going to have to fill our roster with best available where we can’t get elite prospects. The consensus elite prospects we have committed right now are all playmakers, a QB, a TE, a RB/WR, and 2 Edge guys. We may get some more 4-stars in this class but in the end we’re going to have a roster that’s a mix between elite guys and guys who are going to need some time to develop. That’s a recipe that calls for some patience in our fanbase but knowing the composition of our fanbase, I wouldn’t advise holding our breath waiting for us to show that level of self-control. jmo.

This year, based on the depth chart I posted yesterday, our starting offense has 1 5-star (2 if McCoy can play), 5 4-stars, and 5 3-stars. That’s 2 RSRs, 4 SRs, and 4 JRs. On defense for starters we have 4 4-stars and 7 3-stars by my version of starters. Those guys are 2 RSRs, 5 SRs, 1 RJR, 2 JRs, and 1 SO.

Owing to talent and development (experience/returning production), we should have a better starting lineup on both sides of the ball than at least 8 teams on our schedule this year. jmo.

Somewhat related:

Pate did a recent pod cast in which he pointed out that no team has ever won the NC without having greater than 50% of their roster comprised as blue chip (4, 5 star) prospects.

Once you get to 50%, you're in the discussion.

But he also pointed out that while it used to be a rarity that a team would have 70% of their roster comprised of blue chippers... several current teams (Alabama, UGA and I think he said OSU) have 90% blue chip prospects.

And this bears out. I went down a rabbit hole recently where I was looking at the top rated prospects from the early 2000's. And a look at where they all signed was completely different than nowadays. Wisconsin, Iowa, Tennessee, FSU, Washington, UCLA, USCjr, etc. Elite talent back then was being spread all over the place. One exception was the USC Trojans were typically signing multiple top 20 kids each year back then.

Compare that to cycles the past 5 or so years and all the 5 stars are largely going to Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, and OSU.

This year, thanks to NIL, is the first year where its starting to look like the early 2000's, where the talent is being spread out. Instead of four teams dividing up the lions share of the 5 stars and high 4 stars, these kids are heading all over the place. Tennessee has multiple five stars and two high four stars who could end up 5 stars. Miami is getting commits from a number of elite kids. FSU, Michigan State, USC Trojans, etc.

Ultimately, that will be good for college football as a whole, and for Tennessee.

And allow me to take a shot here at a guy I can't stand, but I bet we eventually see Smart get exposed once he's no longer able to simply overwhelm opponents with superior talent.

 

[thistime]

Skittles maker sued; lawsuit alleges 'known toxin' in rainbow candy

I knew they were out to get me but ya'll said "Bless His Heart he's "Special"." The Bless His Heart should have been a dead giveaway......I have an experienced based knowledge of Southern Women code..........
Starburst anyone?.......I was doing so well or so they said I was, they said "Bless His...........wait a minute........

 

[thistime]

I'm FREE, I'm FREE !!!!

Then again.......

 

[Johnny Majors' Ghost]

 

[RikidyBones]

 

[PlanetVolunteer]

Wow. What a crock.

LOL

Sorry for making baseball fun yall

 

[Orange_Crush]

So, what are we trying to see here? Snow wolf?

I think there's a leopard on the ledge somewhere. I'll circle it for you when I find it.

 

[jave36]

View attachment 473077Volnation training might have saved my life. Ran across this guy walking the Bicentennial Trail in Cheatham County. My wife didn’t see it but months of training on VN have given me a keen eye. Cheers and stay safe out there!

See what?

 

[Glitch]

Wow. What a crock.

 

[GUNTERSVOL]

Recruiting – the debate over star ratings

Usually when I see people discussing the validity or lack thereof of the star system I almost always see two sides divided up with one making the argument for the trees and the other making the argument for the forest. Using isolated examples of a lower star guy who broke out is the trees argument. The other argument based on segregating the talent pool by stars is the forest argument. The forest argument is that the higher star prospects will from an odds perspective be more successful relative to their pool of candidates verses lower ranked players relative to the size of their pool. jmo.

Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State, and other so-called elite teams recruit a lot of higher rated prospects so they have a higher percentage of their players drafted on average than teams with lower rated players.

The other side of that is a team like Pittsburgh. Narduzzi’s starting offense this year has 10 3-stars and 1 4-star. Narduzzi can’t recruit with the elite teams so he has to rely on development. His starting offense this year has 5 RSRs, 2 SRs, 2 JRs, and 2 SOs. His starting defense also has 10 3-stars and 1 4-star. On that side of the ball they start 6 RSRs, 1 SR, 3 RJRs, and 1 RSO.

A lot of elite teams have a number of 3 and out guys. A team like Pittsburgh is going to be playing with a lot of 5-year guys. I don’t think Narduzzi’s approach can consistently stand up to elite teams but with a limited number of playmakers to go along with all that development and maybe experience they can and do have successful seasons relative to their schedule. jmo.

I recently looked at the offensive linemen taken in the first 3 rounds of the 2022 draft to compare their rating, which class year they came from, and where they played in college and in high school.

View attachment 473098

This is a chart of all players drafted from 2014-2021, what their star ratings were, and which round they were drafted in.

This is the forest based on the data in the chart above.

View attachment 473099

I think fans who argue for recruiting higher rated prospects are doing so because of the strength of our schedule. We can sometimes have as many as 4 elite teams on our schedule in a year. I think the fans who object to that argument are not necessarily doing so because they disagree with it. I think they’re at least partly taking exception to “star gazers” venting their disappointment when we take a lower rated prospect and some fans resorting to ungraciously raining on the kid’s boom celebration parade in his thread and at a most inappropriate time. jmo.

I don’t expect any of this to change anytime soon. We’re going to get some elite prospects and we’re going to have to fill our roster with best available where we can’t get elite prospects. The consensus elite prospects we have committed right now are all playmakers, a QB, a TE, a RB/WR, and 2 Edge guys. We may get some more 4-stars in this class but in the end we’re going to have a roster that’s a mix between elite guys and guys who are going to need some time to develop. That’s a recipe that calls for some patience in our fanbase but knowing the composition of our fanbase, I wouldn’t advise holding our breath waiting for us to show that level of self-control. jmo.

This year, based on the depth chart I posted yesterd`ay, our starting offense has 1 5-star (2 if McCoy can play), 5 4-stars, and 5 3-stars. That’s 2 RSRs, 4 SRs, and 4 JRs. On defense for starters we have 4 4-stars and 7 3-stars by my version of starters. Those guys are 2 RSRs, 5 SRs, 1 RJR, 2 JRs, and 1 SO.

Owing to talent and development (experience/returning production), we should have a better starting lineup on both sides of the ball than at least 8 teams on our schedule this year. jmo.

My biggest issue with stars or ratings is the difference in granularity between 5's & 4's and the rest, is the amount of time investment on each rating group. Lumping three star guys seriously targeted by P5 and G5 schools with those for rest of football free world just makes the analysis bogus for me. Mathmatically correct but bogus. Then on top of that you have to factor historically those drafted that all the services and big boys both missed on. Late bloomers and under analyzed players due to school size etc. make it an inexact science for those not excelling by their JR year in front of those who can influence the star givers. It is really hard to evaluate guys in lower divisions enough to make them elite level. The mix of schools and composite ratings in your OL study point that out.

So I have no problem with those rejoicing when the upper crust are signed, the odds are certainly better, the probability of early and longer draftable execution is real, but demeaning a class by association with star ratings for individuals before they hit the field is a classless elitist action from where I sit. Bust analysis for each player and rating group becomes factual down the road. No need for a fan to cheap shot them in advance. All, and I repeat all truths are viewable a few years after signing day. Realities, not probabilities will reign supreme for each player signed. Luck and health will have some impact too. Upward migration through ONE TIME will also point out misses by the experts even if it is just high level play and not draft worthy play. Counters are what counters are.

 

[cncchris33]

Dabo =View attachment 473087

That's oddly accurate.

 

[BigSteve09]

 

[BigSteve09]

Somewhat related:

Pate did a recent pod cast in which he pointed out that no team has ever won the NC without having greater than 50% of their roster comprised as blue chip (4, 5 star) prospects.

Once you get to 50%, you're in the discussion.

But he also pointed out that while it used to be a rarity that a team would have 70% of their roster comprised of blue chippers... several current teams (Alabama, UGA and I think he said OSU) have 90% blue chip prospects.

And this bears out. I went down a rabbit hole recently where I was looking at the top rated prospects from the early 2000's. And a look at where they all signed was completely different than nowadays. Wisconsin, Iowa, Tennessee, FSU, Washington, UCLA, USCjr, etc. Elite talent back then was being spread all over the place. One exception was the USC Trojans were typically signing multiple top 20 kids each year back then.

Compare that to cycles the past 5 or so years and all the 5 stars are largely going to Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, and OSU.

This year, thanks to NIL, is the first year where its starting to look like the early 2000's, where the talent is being spread out. Instead of four teams dividing up the lions share of the 5 stars and high 4 stars, these kids are heading all over the place. Tennessee has multiple five stars and two high four stars who could end up 5 stars. Miami is getting commits from a number of elite kids. FSU, Michigan State, USC Trojans, etc.

Ultimately, that will be good for college football as a whole, and for Tennessee.

And allow me to take a shot here at a guy I can't stand, but I bet we eventually see Smart get exposed once he's no longer able to simply overwhelm opponents with superior talent.

Only Alabama has 90%



But the point that you, Pate, and Elliott are making stands. 70% used to be impressive, 80% was unheard of. 90% is insane. 90% is what your team is made of when you build a Dynasty on the NCAA Football video games.

The other teams that have won in the 50-60% range all had heisman QBs. So Nico + 1-2 more top 10 classes for us and we are squarely in "competing for national championship" territory.

 

[BarnesIsCaliparisDaddy]

This is a prime Knox News clickbait headline. It would have been much better to use University of Tennessee has only two minor recruiting violations in the first six months of 2022. But that would not fit their narrative at all.

Is there a more self loathing local sports media than UT

 

[engineerVOL]

This is why baseball is dying. No fun allowed. The unwritten rules are killing the sport.

The props could start to get out of hand like some juvenile Nickelodeon stuff. We didn’t cross that line but could happen. Nothing says they can’t have choreographed celebrations on the field of play, right?

 

[Johnny Majors' Ghost]

Looks very Dabonair.

 

[engineerVOL]

Looks very Dabonair.

Looks like a Pepto Bismol salesman from the 50s.

 

[Orange_Crush]

So I have no problem with those rejoicing when the upper crust are signed, the odds are certainly better, the probability of early and longer draftable execution is real, but demeaning a class by association with star ratings for individuals before they hit the field is a classless elitist action from where I sit. Bust analysis for each player and rating group becomes factual down the road. No need for a fan to cheap shot them in advance. All, and I repeat all truths are viewable a few years after signing day. Realities, not probabilities will reign supreme for each player signed. Luck and health will have some impact too. Upward migration through ONE TIME will also point out misses by the experts even if it is just high level play and not draft worthy play. Counters are what counters are.

Extremely well said.

 

[Glitch]

Looks like a Pepto Bismol salesman from the 50s.

He looks like a unicorn threw up all over him.

 

[HoleInTheRoof]

Looks like a Pepto Bismol salesman from the 50s.

Looks like a douche.