War in Ukraine

#35,003
#35,003
volgr said:
You keep saying this and the economic picture for Russia only continues to get better. I also like how you act like Russia is the only on with "capitist controls". We'll see, you could be right, Russia has a needle to thread but right now they seem to he doing it.
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Mr. Volgr. I'm going to say this with respect. You are fooling yourself. Do you understand how many roubles it would take to buy a dollar? They have not even been kicked out of the banking system yet, and the UK just announced a new round of sanctions in the works. Few are buying russian oil anymore. They do it when they have to, and that's not going to last long. The people he is able to sell oil to are buying it at such a discount that it is actually starting to COST them money to get it out. That's if you can get it past countries like Greece, who are confiscating russian oil barges when they find them. Everyone knew he would consolidate, and try to prop up the rouble, which he could only do by isolating russia more. Americans don't like it, and they are going to bitch about it, but they are SPENDING LIKE MAD. Nobody in America is cancelling thier vacations, they are just going to be real pissy about it.
 
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#35,004
#35,004
Pretty good visual of the current state of the Ukrainian military...blowing the bridge early in retreat and watching your buddies swim for their lives to get to the other side.
 
#35,006
#35,006
volgr said:
They already are collapsing, dum dum. Listen to some of the units who are not following orders. Come back to reality. Dont be like the other lemmings living in fantasy land. What the hell is wrong with most of you?
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I already said. It's not as bad as you say, not as good as they say.

There are Russian units that have reportedly balked at and refused orders too. Happens in any sizable conflict by winner and loser. Makes sense that a defender under constant pressure is going to face it worse. No good reason for the attacker.

When russia gets bigger gains in single days I will believe the Ukrainians have broken. Right now the russian pace is western front WWI slow. Its steady, shows no sign of stopping, and is more effective than their original strategy, but it's slow which means sufficient resistance. But now you will spew the propaganda about how it's not slow, they are just doing as little damage as possible. Without understanding that slow means more damage than fast in warfare. It's like a natural disaster,Katrina was so devastating, not because it was so powerful, it was devastating because it sat there for so long. Same principal in warfare. You keep military groups in single places for longer periods damage is going to rack up. Wearing down a defense rather than cracking it open means more fighting, more expenditure of ammo.

It also helps preserve the enemy forces. With more time they can pull out, like we have seen many Ukrainians do from the far east. It allows them to regroup, and fight again, instead of completely overrunning and breaking them. Allows them to preserve assets and command structure. It keeps the fight to the defenders front. Short of dropping all large military vehicles I cant think of a slower more destructive type of warfare. Its scorched earth with better propaganda.
 
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#35,007
#35,007
volgr said:
Economic war seems to be going about as well as the actual war, for the Western Death Cultists.
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I wonder how those metrics were calculated. With the relative rise of the ruble they may be selling more ruble worth of less stuff as inflation hits.

The last point is also covered by inflation
 
#35,011
#35,011
One can have childlike idealism when it comes to Ukraine, but at some point the adults in the room (are there any?) have to prioritize. Unless, this is an orchestrated collapse or as some may say, reset.
 
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#35,012
#35,012
LouderVol said:
They clearly dont know history. We have gone the longest time in history without a truly major war between powers.

I have no idea how one would track the minor conflicts from the past to compare to the conflicts of today.
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I think the problem is, they DO know history, especially post WW2 American foreign policy history.
 
#35,014
#35,014
LouderVol said:
They clearly dont know history. We have gone the longest time in history without a truly major war between powers.

I have no idea how one would track the minor conflicts from the past to compare to the conflicts of today.
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Nuclear weapons totally changed the Calculus post 1945. Any regional war that involves a major power has the potential to spiral very quickly out of control
 
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#35,015
#35,015
LouderVol said:
When russia gets bigger gains in single days I will believe the Ukrainians have broken. Right now the russian pace is western front WWI slow. Its steady, shows no sign of stopping, and is more effective than their original strategy, but it's slow which means sufficient resistance. But now you will spew the propaganda about how it's not slow, they are just doing as little damage as possible. Without understanding that slow means more damage than fast in warfare. It's like a natural disaster,Katrina was so devastating, not because it was so powerful, it was devastating because it sat there for so long. Same principal in warfare. You keep military groups in single places for longer periods damage is going to rack up. Wearing down a defense rather than cracking it open means more fighting, more expenditure of ammo.
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It is not propaganda but easily seen that Russia is accelerating their gains in the last 2 to 3 weeks. I will grant you and said so myself that before that time the gains made were slow. Once troops from Mariupol were rested and reassigned to Donbas, that was roughly when we started seeing an increase in speed. Ukraine doesn't have this luxury, especially in the Donbas. They are losing massive amounts of men, resupply is becoming increasingly problematic in quantity, quality and speed and their capability due to this is starting to quickly deteriorate. Again, we saw Russia do this in Syria. To say Ukraine isn't on the verge of collapse in the Donbas, to me, isn't a correct reading of what is going on on the ground. Could be wrong, we'll see.
 
#35,016
#35,016
volgr said:
I think the problem is, they DO know history, especially post WW2 American foreign policy history.
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The worst type of American exceptionalism. The type with no context.

We have had one conflict with a neighbor, Cuba, since the formation of NATO. Name another 70 year period in US history where that was the case.

We have not had a conflict against a world power in 70 years. Cant do that for any other 70 year stretch. Germans twice, the brits twice, the spanish at least twice.

We have pretty much always been imperialist. Has the last 70 years been worse or anywhere close to any other 70 year period? Before NATO we were subjugating the natives. Getting involved in the pacific island gobble. Heck we had an empire from Cuba to the Phillipines. We literally bought an African country. Founded the literal Banana Republics in CA. Aided in dozens of SA conflicts. Partook in the boxer rebellion, the "opening" of Japan, fighting the Barbary pirates and other arabs. Plus all the other conflicts listed previously.

For being isolationist we did a lot of growing and meddling. At least equal to the NATO days.
 
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#35,017
#35,017
I'm going to ask you two questions and then answer them for you, because I already know the answers.

1: Is Biden the king of the world? No.

2: Is inflation and gas prices an American problem? No.


Most countries have it worse than America and Biden does not control other countries. Do you see the fallacy in The Cult's logic yet? It makes no sense if America is doing better than other countries.

Gas prices were expected to be record breaking this year BEFORE Putang's war.
 
#35,019
#35,019
volgr said:
You do realize the ridiculously high energy prices the West is currently paying is causing far more political and economic pressure to the West compared to what Russia is experiencing do to the discounted oil price (and they will still take in much more profit this year vs last year).

You guys really do live in a fantasy world.
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I agree with you that gas prices suck. It's definitely only partially due to the Ukrainian war though.
 
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#35,020
#35,020
LouderVol said:
They clearly dont know history. We have gone the longest time in history without a truly major war between powers.

I have no idea how one would track the minor conflicts from the past to compare to the conflicts of today.
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And no NATO countries have been invaded, despite several clearly being on Russia’s wish list.
 
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#35,021
#35,021
volgr said:
It is not propaganda but easily seen that Russia is accelerating their gains in the last 2 to 3 weeks. I will grant you and said so myself that before that time the gains made were slow. Once troops from Mariupol were rested and reassigned to Donbas, that was roughly when we started seeing an increase in speed. Ukraine doesn't have this luxury, especially in the Donbas. They are losing massive amounts of men, resupply is becoming increasingly problematic in quantity, quality and speed and their capability due to this is starting to quickly deteriorate. Again, we saw Russia do this in Syria. To say Ukraine isn't on the verge of collapse in the Donbas, to me, isn't a correct reading of what is going on on the ground. Could be wrong, we'll see.
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Your "verge" is a month out at least. Or at least has been in the past. You are playing Nostrdamus. Through enough vague crap at the wall eventually something will stick and you will claim clairvoyance.

Accelerating from what standpoint? Where they werent taking anything? Yeah. From a month ago when you predicted Ukraines eastern collapse? Hard to see.

What is the metric for your acceleration. They were taking X amount of kilometers, now its 2x? Let's see some figures, surely there is enough information to give me a direct answer and show the acceleration.
 
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#35,022
#35,022
IluvdoubleD's said:
I'm going to ask you two questions and then answer them for you, because I already know the answers.

1: Is Biden the king of the world? No.

2: Is inflation and gas prices an American problem? No.


Most countries have it worse than America and Biden does not control other countries. Do you see the fallacy in The Cult's logic yet? It makes no sense if America is doing better than other countries.

Gas prices were expected to be record breaking this year BEFORE Putang's war.
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Inflation is absolutely a problem here. What the eff are you smoking?
 
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#35,023
#35,023
volgr said:
They already are collapsing, dum dum. Listen to some of the units who are not following orders. Come back to reality. Dont be like the other lemmings living in fantasy land. What the hell is wrong with most of you?
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You really should read the Time article. It discusses the potential for collapse by both sides. But, the author concludes Russia is suffering far greater problems and likely is approaching culmination.

And, obviously, yes I'll belive this dude's opinion over your TASS and Russian milbloggers all day long.

Source:

BY FREDERICK W. KAGAN

Kagan is Senior Fellow and Director of the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute
 
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