War in Ukraine

#33,592
#33,592
ISW:

"The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russian forces are withdrawing old T-62 tanks from storage to form new BTGs.[6] Russia is likely continuing to exhaust its remaining combat-ready reserves to maintain the momentum of the Battle of Severodonetsk, rather than prioritizing preparations for new reinforcements. ISW previously assessed that Russian mobilization is unlikely to generate combat-ready force due to hasty training."

T-62s have 0.00% chance of survival v. modern equipment deployed in Ukraine.

Russia is showing signs of culmination.
 
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#33,593
#33,593
FLVOL_79 said:
If Ukraine can do it, absolutely. They are also better trained and equipped.
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So you guys want to drag Sweden and Finland into this conflict? You neocons are a special bunch.
Rasputin_Vol said:
Saakashvili isn't a NAZI, but he is a carpetbagging US asset.
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Some Georgians also have ultranationalist views and are racist against groups such as the Abkhaz people.
 
#33,596
#33,596
tvolsfan said:
Every country has racist and ultra national groups. That’s not a serious reason to invade a country and steal their land.
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Russia didn't steal any land. There were already existing independence movements in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Do you have something against Abkhaz and Ossetian people?
 
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#33,599
#33,599
Given that Russia is - quite literally - running out of decent troops and equipment, my $0.02 regarding Putin's next move...

I think Putin wants out of his Chinese finger trap in a big way. But he still needs to save face. Solution?

Declare victory. "Mission Accomplished!" (worked for W right? *cough*)

Russia troops are concentrating all they got (left) on the Donbas area. And they are picking up small bits of land and small towns very, very slowly. But, they are losing troops and materiel at a completely unsustainable rate.

I think Russia will probably take Lyman - which is on the wrong side of the river - and possibly Severodonetsk. Which is a pretty big prize.

Then maybe Lysychansk. But I think that's all they could capture with the horsepower they got at this point. Slovyansk and Kramatorsk won't be taken.

Then, Putin declares fait accompli! Surprise! The Russian goal the whole time was to only capture a land bridge to Crimea. Attacking Kyiv and Karkiv was all part of Putin's 4D chess game - a big diversion. Vodka all around! @volgr parties like its 1999.

THE WAR IS OVER!!!

Of, course, there's just. One. Problem.

Ukraine ain't done. Ukraine is just ramping up with heavy artillery, Harpoon missiles, and other game-changing western equipment.

Putin will publicly offer his "reasonable" truce terms that Zelensky will quickly quash.

Net/Net... the war continues. Putin sues for peace. Most western nations (including us) tell Zelensky "It's your call on continuing to fight or not". Russia digs in its troops in defensive positions. There's a stalemate for several months. Then Ukraine begins to bring a large arsenal of 777s, other artillery, and newly trained troops to the front, and it slowly but surely obliterates the Russian lines and equipment click by click.

I think by late Summer, Ukraine is fully on the offensive and pushes Russian troops backwards. It'll be a slog, but with superior artillery, they'll slowly but surely knock the Russian troops out of their land. When Ukraine has mastered our HIMARS system - with a range of 500 kilometers - the first thing they'll probably do is knock out the entire moored Russian fleet in Sevastopol. The Crimean bridge is also waiting to be destroyed, thereby cutting off close supplies to Crimea. Also, if true, Patriot missile batteries will eventually be up and running - obviously a much longer learning curve there.

In short, Russia simply does NOT have a solution to counter western-supplied artillery. Ukraine is getting up to speed on their use now. Once their troops are ready, it's over for Russia.

Unless Putin loses his mind and goes nuclear, Russia will be expelled from Ukraine. It's just a matter of time.
 
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#33,600
#33,600
DonjoVol said:
I've actually read that Russia and the DPR forces were actually outnumbered about 5 to 1 in this conflict. This is probably accurate. Keep in mind this is without Russia using their full naval or air power yet.
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Their fully navy? To do what? Launch more missiles? They are already doing that. Ukraine doesnt have another coastline that Russia hasnt cut off yet. They are using their navy to it's full capability unless you want it to go raiding outside the black sea. Yet another example of you not understanding how military actions work at all.

Their air power has been on full display, they rolled out their strategic bombers a while ago. We have seen fighters, copters, and drones, used in all theatres of the fight. Short of full blown strategic bombing or nuclear deployment there isnt anything left for them to use. And really both options havent been effectively used since WW2, and strategic bombing has never been part of russian strategy ever, even during the Cold War. They dont have a B52 equivalent. At least when compared to US air strategy. Look back at afghanistan.

Literally any talking point they can roll out you buy up without even pretending to try and grasp the realities of what they are trying to imply.
 
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