War in Ukraine

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#27,901
Russia’s Export Windfall Catapults Key Trade Barometer to Record

Sofya Donets, economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, estimates the surplus was at $19 billion in March, the first full month of the conflict with Ukraine. “The effect of sanctions had yet to manifest itself on exports in March,” she said.

While the sweeping sanctions are expected to trigger the deepest recession in decades, the restrictions so far don’t extend to Russia’s key energy exports, which have benefited after prices jumped since the invasion began on Feb. 24. Capital controls imposed to limit the drop in the ruble mean that investment outflows are all but cut off.
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#27,902
#27,902
volgr said:
France just re-elected Macron. Germany is contemplating going into debt to help finance Ukraine.
I dont see a light bulb moment for Europe. They are an unserious and frivolous people. To hell with them.
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Let me correct myself, they are trickling out bits of truth as time goes on, yet I don't think they have a reverse gear. they will double down on dumb even though they realize that they are fighting a no win situation. They are ideologically driven and will go down until either the last drop of Ukrainian blood is spilt or the last European freezes next winter.
 
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#27,904
#27,904
volgr said:
France just re-elected Macron. Germany is contemplating going into debt to help finance Ukraine.
I dont see a light bulb moment for Europe. They are an unserious and frivolous people. To hell with them.
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They are finally realizing they need to not be dependent on energy from your lord savior douche bag.
 
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NorthDallas40 said:
If the idiot in chief blows this and Xi starts to thinking he can get away with taking Taiwan we will be in a shooting war with China. And I doubt they **** the bed like the Russians.
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That's still a lot of water to cross with an invasion force. Further than D-Day, the coastline is more limited, monitoring is a lot better, and so are the weapons that would be used against an invasion force. All the Russians had to do was drive down the road or railroad and not screw it up ... and they owned the land right up to the border. The Russians could have waited for better footing after the spring thaw, but the Chinese are going to have to get across 90 miles of water and get onshore any time of year. Bombardment may level the place, but to own it you still have to have troops on the ground; somebody's going to find out if the odds are any better than they were in WW2 when we created a lot of rubble and still had to claw for every inch of soil.
 
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Rasputin_Vol said:
Now why would we need to get in a damn shooting war over Taiwan?
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Look where we source the components for our electronics needs. If we don't help Taiwan, it sends a message to China that S Korea and Japan are theirs for the taking. We need to be developing a Pacific version of NATO - S Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand, and hopefully the Philippines as a minimum. A couple of weeks ago F-15s with live AA missiles flew from Kadena (Okinawa) when China was playing around Taiwan. Seems like there are also either F-22s or F-35s at Kadena and plenty of tankers. Japan has two squadrons of F-15s and patrol aircraft at Naha - about 25 miles south of Kadena. It looks like we'd be hurting if Taiwan is taken, and screwed without Japan and Korea - unless we do some massive development of US built electronic components in a damn big hurry. The fact that there's water between Taiwan and China means an attack would almost certainly involve airpower - blitzkrieg isn't going to be a factor. Getting troops on the ground fast enough and in quantity enough is going to be a challenge for China.
 
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#27,914
Orangeburst said:
I just dont get how we can target an ICBM with pretty good accuracy 50 year ago with just INS for an intercontinental static target mission to within say 50 meters, and not solve long range tactical missions wiith some terminal seeker for tactical missions. MTI and all. Probably how CCP is using their carrier killers.
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NorthDallas40 said:
Ballistic profiles my dude. Ballistic profiles. Greatly simplifies the whole navigation task when you know the answer up front. And I honestly don’t know how accurate they were but the allowable margin of error was considerably larger.
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Besides, big nukes only have to be close.
 
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#27,916
Rasputin_Vol said:
Australia, Japan, Taiwan and South Korea have more of an interest and combined could be just as capable of handling that or any other situation in that region. There is no reason for us to be involved in any way. Your position is only going to enable these countries to rely more heavily on us instead of taking matters in their own hands.
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And then along came globalism. Look at the problem with display chips during covid. Now magnify that to cover virtually all electronic components right up to major appliances, and it is very much our problem. If you don't keep your industry at home, then you better be ready to protect your sources; and BTW remember nothing we want would be coming from China. Now you see the problem?
 
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Rasputin_Vol said:
That generation takes pride in running up the bar tab and leaving it for their children and grandchildren to pay off. Selfish and entitled group of people...
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You're giving us way too much credit; none of us could change or prevent bad policy any more than you can. Besides FDR started the bar tab, and in general dems are the ones who kept adding other "entitlements".
 
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#27,920
#27,920
Hunerwadel said:
You should invest heavily then.

A Moscow broker explains what's happening in Russia's chaotic markets, where vultures are scavenging for profit and the Kremlin is propping up stocks and the ruble
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But Lutsko said it's not a reflection of the strength of the economy. The government has imposed tight capital controls that prevent rubles leaving the country, and has instructed exporters to convert 80% of their foreign earnings into the currency.
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Uhhh... what other choice do they have? The sanctions have made holding the USD and Euro nearly obsolete since they can't buy anything with them, so why hold them in their reserves?

And again, someone explauin to me how a country with very little external debt, a leader in commodities exports and with a trade surplus can be hurt by being pushed into a force majeure default? They hardly borrow as it is and they have a trade surplus due to their exports. What, are they going to be cut off from future IMF loans? LOL...
 
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AM64 said:
You're giving us way too much credit; none of us could change or prevent bad policy any more than you can. Besides FDR started the bar tab, and in general dems are the ones who kept adding other "entitlements".
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I guess the frustration is the attitude and arrogance that many Boomers carry. They always have something to say about millenials but don't even acknowledge that A) these are the children or grandchildren that they helped to raise and B) these Boomers don't acknowledge that these kids are not in the same economic environment that they had the privilege to grow up in. When these Boomers were in their 20s-30s, the US still had a manufacturing base and we still had a real economy.
 
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#27,923
Rasputin_Vol said:
I guess the frustration is the attitude and arrogance that many Boomers carry. The always have something to say about millenials but don't even acknowledge that A) these a the children or grandchildren that they helped to raise and B) these Boomers don't acknowledge that these kids are not in the same economic environment that they had the privilege to grow up in. When these Boomers were in their 20s-30s, the US still had a manufacturing base and we still had a real economy.
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I'll agree partially, but perhaps the biggest blunder made before younger generations came along was expanding the voting age to kids who knew nothing of the world and liberal experiments. A lot of people have liberal ideals until they start realizing they pay for them, so the non fiscally conservative political faction got a bonus and a real windfall for themselves with 18 to perhaps 25 year olds who have never carried their own weight. Those are the social experiments that have us hamstrung. Your generations probably have tipped the tables more to that kind of liberal thinking than mine. And for the record, the "boomer" era is too broad. I was born in 1946, and too much happened to say we thought the same as the later boomers.

You know as well as I that not all people are equals. You and I have never benefitted from selling our industry down the road like politicians and corporate executives have, and neither or nor I had any real voice in it - other than perhaps as kids too young to vote making bad choices when it came to electing the people making policy. Sure we had opportunity of the sort you mention if you call working at the lowest level on a production line opportunity. Yes, I graduated from college free of debt by working summers and part time, with the GI Bill after three years in the Army, but without lottery scholarships, etc. The difference is that my generation was generally more grounded in reality when it came to education - it does make a difference.
 
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AM64 said:
I'll agree partially, but perhaps the biggest blunder made before younger generations came along was expanding the voting age to kids who knew nothing of the world and liberal experiments. A lot of people have liberal ideals until they start realizing they pay for them, so the non fiscally conservative political faction got a bonus and a real windfall for themselves with 18 to perhaps 25 year olds who have never carried their own weight. Those are the social experiments that have us hamstrung. Your generations probably have tipped the tables more to that kind of liberal thinking than mine. And for the record, the "boomer" era is too broad. I was born in 1946, and too much happened to say we thought the same as the later boomers.

You know as well as I that not all people are equals. You and I have never benefitted from selling our industry down the road like politicians and corporate executives have, and neither or nor I had any real voice in it - other than perhaps as kids too young to vote making bad choices when it came to electing the people making policy. Sure we had opportunity of the sort you mention if you call working at the lowest level on a production line opportunity. Yes, I graduated from college free of debt by working summers and part time, with the GI Bill after three years in the Army, but without lottery scholarships, etc. The difference is that my generation was generallky more grounded in reality when it came to education - it does make a difference.
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Well your last sentence highlights another problem... actually two problems. One, the cost of college education has grown way faster than inflation and it is not comparable to what kids in the 1960s and 1970s had to pay. Also, part of that inflated cost is due to the fact that these kids are now driven into college rather than 2 year schools or the trades (although we are starting to gradually see that shift). Increased demand, govt involvement in education and the proliferation of all of these nonsensical/bogus degrees. And I've said it before but most people just shake it off, but a lot of these kids at 18 do not have good people in their families or schools or peer group advising them on the right decisions to make and are encouraging these guys to strap on all of this syudent debt... telling them that it is worth it and that it will pay off. This also goes along with your voting rant. We allow these kids to vote at 18 knowing that they are not responsible and haven't had much life experience to make good judgements... yet we shackle them with these basketball number college debt numbers and ruin their lives. Am I saying that there are not 18 year olds that responsible and can make wise decisions? No. But lets be real, you brought up the fact that making them votes is irresponsible, yet very few people will argue that allowing them to borrow tens of thouaands on worthless degrees is just as irresponsible.
 
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