War in Ukraine

#23,430
#23,430
There are currently two big unknowns as we brace for this second phase of the war.

1. How many new Russian troops can Russia actually commit to the east?

There are over 100,000 Russian conscripts about to be released, many of which are in theater. We know many were being coerced into signing contracts, but word seems to be getting out—signing the contract is a death sentence. Back in Russia proper, there are multiple reports of entire units quitting their contracts. Turns out, absent a formal declaration of war, which Russian dictator Vladimir Putin weirdly refuses to do, there is no legal way for authorities to force anyone to the front.

Meanwhile, many of the units pulled out of the Kyiv area have been decimated, and either need to be backfilled with new bodies and equipment, or smushed together with other broken units. Regardless which way they go, those units won’t be as effective as originally constituted. And they weren’t that effective to begin with.

And even if they get new troops to that front, how is that helpful if they can’t manage to coordinate major combined arms maneuvers? Here is the result of a recent Russian assault of Ukrainian defensive lines in Donbas:

You have well-entrench Ukrainian forces and supposedly hundreds of tanks at your disposal, and you make full-frontal assaults with … these piddly forces? Ukraine General Staff claimed that they had repelled nine separate attacks on the Donbas front over the last 24 hours, destroying 8 tanks and 44 other armored vehicles. That’s an average of six destroyed vehicles per attack, so they keep sending these inadequate probes against a brick wall, time and time again. What if Russia had massed all that armor in one place for one assault? Crazy, right?

You never see Russia operate with overwhelming force because they simply can’t coordinate it. Six weeks into the war, this is still true: “Individual Russian attacks at roughly regiment size reported on March 8-9 may represent the maximum scale of offensive operations Russian forces can conduct on this axis at any one time. ” A regiment is two BTGs, or 20 tanks and 80 armored personnel carriers (APC). That seems like a lot on paper, but Ukraine has repeatedly and consistently repulsed all direct attacks. Remember, Kherson wasn’t taken in combat, it was sold out by its traitor mayor, police, and security heads. Mariupol still hasn’t fallen, despite being besieged for six weeks and razed to the ground.

2. Where will Ukraine redeploy its forces?

Like Russia, Ukraine deployed its best forces around Kyiv. Unlike Russia, Ukrainian forces survived mostly intact. So what now? There are several critical needs. They can shore up the Donbas front. A nice, hard counterattack to retake Izyum would reverse what took Russia weeks to accomplish. Or how about heading up to Kherson and pushing east, cutting off the main route from Russia back into Ukraine—a key resupply line for the Donbas front?

Maybe they can head south and make a serious push toward Mariupol to try and break the siege. Odds are good Russia would be ill-equipped to handle pressure from outside the city, given how slowly they’re moving inside it.

Or what about Kherson? By liberating Kherson, Ukraine would be able to once again dam a key water supply for Crimea, putting severe pressure on the peninsula and giving Ukraine a bargaining chip for negotiations. It would also shatter Russia’s southern flank, and open up the approach toward Melitopol to its east (and beyond that, Mariupol). Also, bye-bye land bridge.

I don’t envy Ukrainian war planners. The needs everywhere are overwhelming, and the resources are finite. Those NATO T-72s can’t arrive soon enough.
 
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#23,438
#23,438
Septic said:
I wonder if you're able to posit a single argument that doesn't consist of a "whattabout."
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Before social media a few years ago came up with "whataboutism", it used to be common to highlight the inconsistency in people's gripes by showing how they behave in one instance, but behave differently in a similar instance.
 
#23,439
#23,439
AM64 said:
So what are we going to do? Cut Indian visas so they can't run more gas stations here in the US? I can't imagine cutting off the Indian grad students; universities would revolt. And then there's the medical issue; what would we do without all the Indian doctors?
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I'd settle for shutting down all the India based tech service.
 
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#23,441
#23,441
Rasputin_Vol said:
Before social media a few years ago came up with "whataboutism", it used to be common to highlight the inconsistency in people's gripes by showing how they behave in one instance, but behave differently in a similar instance.
Click to expand...

Definition of TU QUOQUE

The "you too" logical fallacy originated circa 1614.

Stop embarrassing yourself, avoiding having to answer by attempting o turn the tables isn't the get out of jail card you believe it to be. Refuting facts with an accusation instead of addressing them is a losing gambit.

How many times does this need to be pointed out to you?

If someone is wrong, tell them why and call them a hypocrite - but you need to formulate cogent articulable points as to why they are wrong. You aren't doing that.
 
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#23,449
#23,449
Rasputin_Vol said:
Before social media a few years ago came up with "whataboutism", it used to be common to highlight the inconsistency in people's gripes by showing how they behave in one instance, but behave differently in a similar instance.
Click to expand...
Like you discussing personal freedoms and then defending one of the worst fascists in the world?
 
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