Recruiting Forum Football Talk IV

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If Arkansas hangs on, not a one of my final four will have made it past the Sweet 16, and half of them won’t have made it past the first round. I know how to pick ‘em.
Every team I picked in all the rounds are gone except one - and that’ my National Champion pick…(I didnt pick my National Champion until after we were out 😁)
 
I'm looking at the football schedules of our opponents this year using Bill Connelly's preseason SP+ and first up are South Carolina and Missouri. Right now it looks like the Gamecocks may be expected to win 5 games and lose 7. For Missouri, the preseason expectations looks like 4 wins and 8 losses. jmo.


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Kyle Peterson was a guest on Friday's SEC This Morning on Sirius XM. He previewed the weekend's series slate, and Peter Burns asked him what makes Coach V so good to have sustained success compared to Kentucky's Nick Mingione. Paraphrasing what Peterson said: He's (Vitello) an elite recruiter who's in it not to make friends but to win.
 
Kyle Peterson was a guest on Friday's SEC This Morning on Sirius XM. He previewed the weekend's series slate, and Peter Burns asked him what makes Coach V so good to have sustained success compared to Kentucky's Nick Mingione. Paraphrasing what Peterson said: He's (Vitello) an elite recruiter who's in it not to make friends but to win.
Peterson was the commentator last night, right? I liked him, definitely speaks his mind.
 
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That is a culture. That is a mentality. Head coaches in all sports want this from their players. Kids feed off of this and want to be apart of it and the more this is out there, the more recruits want to be apart of it. I can go to this school and be a good player, or I can go to Tennessee and dominate people.
 
I'm looking at the football schedules of our opponents this year using Bill Connelly's preseason SP+ and first up are South Carolina and Missouri. Right now it looks like the Gamecocks may be expected to win 5 games and lose 7. For Missouri, the preseason expectations looks like 4 wins and 8 losses. jmo.


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Appreciate the work, as always.

I will say, Missouri looks to have a number of very winnable games where they have negative margins.

Curious what the probabilistic win/loss would look like for each. Are these SP+ margins comparable to vegas spreads?

If so, could use historical vegas data to come up with the percentages and run it through a simulator. I do 1000 simulations in my spreadsheet. Could do a lot more ofc. I'd be interested in our outcomes too. Converting College Football Point Spreads Using Moneyline Calculator
 
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