The Official “Regular Posters of the Basketball Forum” Thread

#11,652
#11,652
walkenvol said:
Are you really worried CRB won’t land a top assistant to replace Schwartz? CRB appears to have more basketball connections and is more respected than almost anyone in the sport. I’m not worried at all, he’ll land a winner. Heck, I’d prefer we just have him hire his own replacement when he retires as opposed to our administration to be honest. Could we make him the assistant AD over basketball when he quits coaching?
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I hope we don't see a dip since we'll return so many players from this squad, but never easy to lose a top assistant.
 
#11,661
#11,661
johnfnkelly said:
Big O has to be one of the most overrated players in recent memory. Any 6’11 player with moderate length and a heart beat can neutralize him.
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I really disagree. I agree that what you listed is the way to slow him down, but I don't know how you can characterize a guy who did something no one has done in 40 years as "the most overrated player in recent memory". The guy averaged 17 ppg and 15.2 rpg, shot 60% from the field on 377 attempts.
 
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#11,662
#11,662
Just a note of interest. Brandon Miller wins 4A Mr. Basketball for the state of Tennessee. Bearden plays his Cane Ridge team Wednesday afternoon. Jarred Hall from Lebanon plays in the game after Bearden. Very good player as well. I’m thinking Hall may end up with a higher upside than Miller.
 
#11,665
#11,665
cncchris33 said:
I really disagree. I agree that what you listed is the way to slow him down, but I don't know how you can characterize a guy who did something no one has done in 40 years as "the most overrated player in recent memory". The guy averaged 17 ppg and 15.2 rpg, shot 60% from the field on 377 attempts.
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There’s no way you can overrate that kind of production. I do think he gets some benefits because of who he is and who he plays for, but you use all that to your advantage to help your team win.
 
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#11,666
#11,666
TheMookieMonster said:
.
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I think I've mentioned this before, but I have a very unscientific model which pulls correlations between a team's 4 factors (FG%, TO%, Reb%, FTR) to offensive and defensive efficiency and compares them to an opponent's correlation. FG% is always going to be the highest correlation of course, so while that's important in a game, I benchmark against a general NCAA average for a "key to the game". Or the which of these facets is most likely to provide the most leverage to a team's success beyond normal competitive balance. For Tennessee, this tends to be turnovers. So if we're matched up against a team that also has a high TO % correlation to efficiency, that would be the key to the game. If if they perform worse than Tennessee on the season in that category, I would consider that a good match-up - or high leverage for us. That's Michigan to a T.
 
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#11,667
#11,667
Here are Tennessee's correlations. You can see offensive turnovers have a -43 correlation to offensive efficiency, and a +43 (plus as in we give up more points) correlation to defensive efficiency. The net correlation to success is much higher than average.
tennessee corr.jpg

Meanwhile Michigan's defensive TO% correlations. When they turn teams over it's has a +16 correlation to their offensive efficiency and a -48 to defensive efficiency. In net it's also higher than average. So between the two teams this is a high-leverage stat.
Michigan corr.jpg
Then consider where the teams rank in each category
Tennessee: tennessee stats.jpg Michigan:michigan stats.jpg

I can't remember some of the opponents we've had but I think Miss St was one where there didn't appear to be any factor between the teams which in net was much different than average so that game comes down to basic overall quality.
 
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#11,668
#11,668
Finished up my CBB rankings / bracket simulations today and came across this frustrating stat.

Current F4 probabilities:
Tennessee: 20.3%
Auburn: 20.6%

If you flip our positions in the bracket...
Tennessee: 29.7% (3rd highest in country)
Auburn: 15.2%

If we swap spots with Duke:
Tennessee: 19.7%

So basically, being the 2 in the West wouldn't help us at all, but Kansas/Auburn are getting a cakewalk in the MW if they can take advantage of it.
 
#11,669
#11,669
Vols410 said:
Finished up my CBB rankings / bracket simulations today and came across this frustrating stat.

Current F4 probabilities:
Tennessee: 20.3%
Auburn: 20.6%

If you flip our positions in the bracket...
Tennessee: 29.7% (3rd highest in country)
Auburn: 15.2%

If we swap spots with Duke:
Tennessee: 19.7%

So basically, being the 2 in the West wouldn't help us at all, but Kansas/Auburn are getting a cakewalk in the MW if they can take advantage of it.
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The midwest region has to be historically weak. Based on predictive ratings Kansas is basically as good as we are. Auburn is no better than 10th in most predictive rankings. WIsconsin is barely top 25. In KenPom they rank 34th! Providence ranks 49th! Even if the committee ignored the conference tournaments, there is still zero justification for giving these two teams such high seeds and then putting them in the same region. Unbelievable
 
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#11,670
#11,670
golfballs said:
The midwest region has to be historically weak. Based on predictive ratings Kansas is basically as good as we are. Auburn is no better than 10th in most predictive rankings. WIsconsin is barely top 25. In KenPom they rank 34th! Providence ranks 49th! Even if the committee ignored the conference tournaments, there is still zero justification for giving these two teams such high seeds and then putting them in the same region. Unbelievable
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It's absolutely horrible. Never seen anything like it.
 
#11,671
#11,671
golfballs said:
The midwest region has to be historically weak. Based on predictive ratings Kansas is basically as good as we are. Auburn is no better than 10th in most predictive rankings. WIsconsin is barely top 25. In KenPom they rank 34th! Providence ranks 49th! Even if the committee ignored the conference tournaments, there is still zero justification for giving these two teams such high seeds and then putting them in the same region. Unbelievable
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Of the 1-4 seeds, I think the Midwest has the worst of each. It’s not until you get to the 5 line where that region has someone that I see as better than the other regions. It’s crazy.
 
#11,672
#11,672
cncchris33 said:
I really disagree. I agree that what you listed is the way to slow him down, but I don't know how you can characterize a guy who did something no one has done in 40 years as "the most overrated player in recent memory". The guy averaged 17 ppg and 15.2 rpg, shot 60% from the field on 377 attempts.
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He produces a lot against smaller and weaker players. I just don’t think he’s as good as the numbers suggests. There’s a lot of players in the country I’d take over him and he’s supposedly in the top 5 per the AP all American team.
 
#11,673
#11,673
johnfnkelly said:
He produces a lot against smaller and weaker players. I just don’t think he’s as good as the numbers suggests. There’s a lot of players in the country I’d take over him and he’s supposedly in the top 5 per the AP all American team.
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17 points 20 boards vs Duke (their real big)
16 & 12 vs UNC
16 & 14 vs Auburn
17 & 14 vs Kansas
30 & 18 vs Arkansas

Tennessee kind of held him in check twice and he still had: 13 points & 15 boards, then 13 & 11.

He’s been really…….really good vs the best competition they’ve faced.
 
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#11,674
#11,674
JoAllan said:
17 points 20 boards vs Duke (their real big)
16 & 12 vs UNC
16 & 14 vs Auburn
17 & 14 vs Kansas
30 & 18 vs Arkansas

Tennessee kind of held him in check twice and he still had: 13 points & 15 boards, then 13 & 11.

He’s been really…….really good vs the best competition they’ve faced.
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I don’t think he’s as good as numbers suggest, like I said. There’s a reason he’s not a high prioritized prospect. UK lacks another decent big so naturally he’s going to produce a lot more numbers, sometimes empty numbers.
 
#11,675
#11,675
johnfnkelly said:
I don’t think he’s as good as numbers suggest, like I said. There’s a reason he’s not a high prioritized prospect.
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Wait……you said he produces a lot vs smaller, weaker players……I have shown he produces vs the best as well.

Not sure folks are saying he’s going to be an NBA beast…….but his “college” production this year speaks for itself.

Also “if” he produces wildly vs great competition……how can he not be as good a “college” player as the numbers suggest?

Don’t try to compare vs some NBA type…….this is the NCAA and no one in many folks lifetime has done what he has done, and done so vs really good competition.
 
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