This forum has become so cluttered with random threads, so I'm not really sure where to discuss our draw with some of the regulars, so I'll just post here.
Overall, if you ignore the fact that we got shafted and disrespected on our seeding, the draw itself doesn't seem so bad. It's March, so obviously there is no such thing as an "easy" path if you don't bring 110% every single game, but this is one of the more favorable draws in the first weekend in recent memory.
FIRST WEEKEND:
Round of 64
Longwood....what is there to say other than just don't fall asleep here. Common opponents between the two of us seem to indicate on a "good" night we're 25-30 points better than them. I don't expect us to actually win by that much, but close to it. Longwood is a small team. Their tallest player is essentially the size of Josiah. This is a game our bigs should FEAST in. And, if not, and we have to go small, it's hard to see small ball Longwood competing and staying with Chandler, Josiah, Vescovi, et al.
Warren Nolan Longwood Lancers Stats & Info (Hyperlinked)
Longwood shoots the 3-ball well, but their SOS is 343rd and their non-conference RPI is 313. Yeah, they're 18th in 3-point % but they haven't faced a defense anywhere nearly as suffocating as our defense, so just don't give them wide open shots and they'll struggle.
Round of 32
Colorado State Rams Stats & Info (Hyperlinked)
Michigan Wolverines Stats & Info (Hyperlinked)
Personally, I don't think there is a ton of difference in which team we match up better against. They both shoot the 3-ball at a similar clip (35.8% CSU 34.0% Michigan), albeit the difference in that 1.8% is 70th versus 174th. CSU is a lot smaller than Michigan. They really only have one guy that is 6-10, and he is not one of their primary rotation guys. Teams with length scare me a bit, and Michigan has some big dudes. Hunter Dickinson is a matchup nightmare for us.
CSU relies heavily on guard play, Michigan can spread you out a bit and pound the rock inside. AdjO between the two teams is almost identical (19th, Michigan; 20th, CSU). Neither team plays particularly good defense (83rd, CSU; 91st Michigan).
Really, the teams just aren't that drastically different on paper in difficulty, so I'm looking more at the intangibles. Colorado State is 6th most lucky team in the country, and the game is in Indy so Michigan fans and Kentucky fans will be snatching up all of the tickets. It could be a de facto road game for Tennessee, if CSU were to lose. So, I think I personally will be cheering for CSU. Their SOS is only 61st compared to Michigan's 3rd. If you catch Michigan on a good night, they can be trouble. I guess the flip side is Michigan is also very prone to inexplicable collapses. Guess we'll see how it plays out.