I mean Nova ain't a shoe-in to get to the Sweet Sixteen either.
I'll just say it, they are the weakest 2 seed imo. And their defense is suspect, sure in PPG they are 27th at only giving up 63.1, but when you dissect things it's the only area they really look good.
They don't rebound well (231st in defensive rebounding, 200th in total rebounding) they don't generate a lot of steals (218th) they don't block many shots (310th). Their offense is essentially shortening games for opponents and that's why they don't give up a ton of points.
For reference we're 79th in total rebounding, 9th in steals, 51st in blocks. Also a benefit of playing in a low scoring conference.
they hang their hat on shooting 3's. so that doesn't equate to a lot of fluffed up rebound stats, and creates transition opportunities for opponents.. they're willing to give up 2's.
from a match up standpoint...just talking about teams that take a lot of 3 pt shots, regardless of 3p FG%...Nova takes 26/game...top 40 in the country. they make about 9 or 10/game...26th nationally. the only team we've played this season that's in that category is Bama, who takes right at 31/game and makes 10 or 11. Florida also takes about 26 a game, but only makes about 8.
Vandy and Auburn are outside the top 40, but take 24/game, both making about 8/game.
Longwood is top 15 nationally in 3pt fg%, but they only take 21 or so, making 8.
so it seems like however many shots you need to take to get 9 or 10 makes, is what you're going for, if you're going to be a 3 pt shooting team. which Nova is.
%made is one thing, and you can't be 20% from the field or anything, but Nova is getting 27/30 pts a game on 3's. so, our ability to defend will be tested....but historically teams like that...Nova, Bama, Loyola, Auburn when they were really a 3 pt shooting team the past couple years...even against good Barnes' defense, they give us problems because we want most teams we play to rely on lower % shots. these types of teams are fine with that.
we have to make shots, and pressure the ball. everything has to be contested and defensively rely on your help, stay with your guy. Longwood will be a good test...