War in Ukraine

#5,157
#5,157
Vol737 said:
So, what’s the take here? My guess is the idea is to take the Capital and it’s all but over.
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I guess but I’m not sure this will be over quick. If you believe the poll data 48% of Ukrainians would join a national resistance force in the event of occupation. Now I know it could be talk but I think Ukraine will fight.
 
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#5,161
#5,161
Gandalf said:
I dont trust our own "intelligence" services worth a damn, so all of this could be a wag the dog for Biden's benefit, but one thing I have a hard time with. If I was Putin, why wouldnt I invade Ukraine right now? He has to look at our own weak situation and see Biden has no support in his own country. The EU then will see that and think eh, we will gladly roll over and be Putin's b**ch to suck on his natural gas pipe. Especially since Biden got rid of our ability to supply them almost immediately in his presidency.

If I am Putin and calculating what price Russia (much less Putin himself) will likely pay to take over (at least a part of) Ukraine vs the benefits, I have to think the calculation says go for it. The only thought that might hold him back is our military complex desire to have a decent war to sell more stuff now that Afghanistan is over. He knows the bloodthirsty chicken hawks there hold a lot of sway. I would think his goal is a lighting strike, causing near immediate collapse and enough to get Ukraine within 30 days at most. I think he has no desire to go to war with the West but would be willing to risk a limited engagement on his home turf. Our generals are idiots if they think we can compete with Russia within the black sea in a conventional engagement.

Maybe what will work is he invades and then the chickenhawks sell Poland belurus and the rest a ton of new weapons.
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Looks like, as usual, I was correct. The massive Fup in Afghanistan showed the wolves (and bears) of this world that the fire of the West is burning low and its a good time to flex their muscles and pick off stragglers.

Everyone is thinking this is going to drag on with insurgency for years. I am not an expert in that geo but my prediction - war will be over within 30 days. Ukraine gov will collapse in a week (if not days) as everyone gets the hell out of dodge with corrupt money - while Russia pays generals to leave or turn. Lower commanders will not fight when facing juggernaut who is telling them - "brothers, we will pay you 2x as much - welcome back to mother Russia". They are not going to die for nothing and leadership will be gone. Could be wrong but I think more this way than months of fighting. Putin will be swift and crushing both as a demonstration of Russia power and before the ground thaws.
 
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#5,165
#5,165
volfanhill said:
Impose the most crippling sanctions possible and sell to Ukraine whatever weapons they want. Make the Russian market tank so this lunatic is tossed by overwhelming citizen revolt. No leader in the modern era has enriched themselves more by stealing and corruption then this guy
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Russia eats sanctions for breakfast, lunch and dinner... no impact what so ever. Will have to face them on the battlefield to stop this sheit.
 
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#5,166
#5,166
volfanhill said:
Impose the most crippling sanctions possible and sell to Ukraine whatever weapons they want. Make the Russian market tank so this lunatic is tossed by overwhelming citizen revolt. No leader in the modern era has enriched themselves more by stealing and corruption then this guy
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I don’t think Ukraine last long enough to even sell them anything.

Think the capital falls by Friday and it’s over.
 
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#5,168
#5,168
Weezer said:
That this is happening is not Biden's fault, but it does clearly reflect that Putin sees Biden as weak and ineffective.
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This makes more sense than your last post. Do you not think the relationship has been ruined with the ridiculous accusations hurled the last 5-6 years? There is no real relationship or respect.

I'm sure he had ambitions of this but the timing is always curious.
 
#5,170
#5,170
Gandalf said:
Looks like, as usual, I was correct. The massive Fup in Afghanistan showed the wolves (and bears) of this world that the fire of the West is burning low and its a good time to flex their muscles and pick off stragglers.

Everyone is thinking this is going to drag on with insurgency for years. I am not an expert in that geo but my prediction - war will be over within 30 days. Ukraine gov will collapse in a week (if not days) as everyone gets the hell out of dodge with corrupt money - while Russia pays generals to leave or turn. Lower commanders will not fight when facing juggernaut who is telling them - "brothers, we will pay you 2x as much - welcome back to mother Russia". They are not going to die for nothing and leadership will be gone. Could be wrong but I think more this way than months of fighting. Putin will be swift and crushing both as a demonstration of Russia power and before the ground thaws.
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I am inclined to agree with this.
 
#5,172
#5,172
allvol123 said:
Is Biden weak and ineffective or just seen as that?
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Both in my opinion . I’m betting our Allie’s talk about his weaknesses just as much as they did with Trumps only more quietly amongst themselves because the media is pressuring them for sound bytes in Joe
 
#5,173
#5,173
allvol123 said:
Is Biden weak and ineffective or just seen as that?
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why-not-both-animated-gif-7.gif
 
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