Vols Ranked Top Ten by ESPN preason poll

#27
#27
robmgrig said:
Man I wish I could get paid to pick 25 teams out of a hat and post them on the interwebs
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Wow you couldn't be further from the truth 😂

The guy is insanely well respected and is doing the complete opposite of this. He has a couple decades of fine tuning his analytics and does a CRAZY amount of work and optimizing his process as he gathers more and more years worth of data and information.
 
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#28
#28
Carp said:
Yep. It's sort of similar to BPI in basketball. Not super relevant to actual Top 25 rankings, but it's nice to see us getting some positive recognition.
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FPI is closer to BPI. That is ESPN's own thing.

SP+ is more well respected than either and isn't ESPN's baby.

But I'd just say this...power rankings...SP+ etc are much better than being top 25 according to some random AP writers who do nothing but regurgitate last year's final poll and swap a few teams around. Or coaches...even worse...as if they have the time to review the other 129 teams.

AP/Coaches rankings are also based on deservedness, not who is best as a power ranking or analytical system does. This is superior. That said, our schedule will be insane once again, so it clearly doesn't mean we'll be a "top 10" team. But it is predicting we'll be one of the 10 BEST teams.
 
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#30
#30
Devo182 said:
This is not "ESPN" per se.

It is Bill C's (the GOAT) analytics making this projection. He used to be on his own before ESPN bought him up.

It is purely data driven. No opinion or subjectivism.

That said, I've typically found Bill to be very favorable towards us. But his system can't be biased towards us without changing his entire model, so...
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There's no bias except whatever biases may be baked into the formula itself, but I agree that certainly there is no bias for or against any particular team. Not to get too meta, but bias itself is not a bad thing, it's unfair biases that are the problem. Most people are biased against meth heads, and for good reason. Connelly in coming up with his formula has decided some statistics are more important than others, i.e. he's biased in favor of certain statistics/metrics in judging the strength of a team, and we happen to score well on what he thinks is important. To the extent Connelly is correct about the relative importance of the statistics he favors, so are his rankings.
 
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#34
#34
unfrozencvmanvol said:
There's no bias except whatever biases may be baked into the formula itself, but I agree that certainly there is no bias for or against any particular team. Not to get too meta, but bias itself is not a bad thing, it's unfair biases that are the problem.
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Huh? "Unbiased" means the expectation of the estimator is equal to the value of the parameter.
 
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#35
#35
woodpusher said:
Huh? "Unbiased" means the expectation of the estimator is equal to the value of the parameter.
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I'm talking about the "freedom from all prejudice" meaning of the word. No one is free from all prejudices, some are just unfair and others aren't. Prejudice or bias against meth heads or thieves for example, is well deserved.
 
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#37
#37
unfrozencvmanvol said:
I'm talking about the "freedom from all prejudice" meaning of the word. No one is free from all prejudices, some are just unfair and others aren't. Prejudice or bias against meth heads or thieves for example, is well deserved.
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Judge every meth head unto him/herself, or gtho. Broad brushes are so 90s.
 
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#39
#39
We aren’t even close to being a top ten team we will go 6-6 or 7-5 again our defense is garbage. Hope you guys love the Music city bowl we will back there again soon.
 
#42
#42
sunnyvol79 said:
We aren’t even close to being a top ten team we will go 6-6 or 7-5 again our defense is garbage. Hope you guys love the Music city bowl we will back there again soon.
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I’m afraid you are mostly right. Just maybe with some good breaks and some surprising defense improvement 8-4. Still it is hopeful sign.
better pray our starting QB stays healthy all year or 6-6 or worse is likely.
 
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#44
#44
unfrozencvmanvol said:
I'm talking about the "freedom from all prejudice" meaning of the word. No one is free from all prejudices, some are just unfair and others aren't. Prejudice or bias against meth heads or thieves for example, is well deserved.
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The accused is entitled to a fair trial, not a perfect trial.
 
#48
#48
We should get 8 wins. Year 2 is a good look into the future. Everybody has a year of film now so offensive production will prob drop some. Defense might be better but it's still prob not going to be good. Still going to have to recruit 10x better to have any chance of even a sec title
 
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